Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

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bella_may
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#81 Postby bella_may » Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:07 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I'm excited for the folks in Texas. They are getting their winter wonderland!

For us on the Gulf coast, Mobile county added to the advisory.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/0ee5127f563480e50fded649349c758e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/5bda4c4cf667208470bc12bad624372d.jpg

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Where are you seeing the advisory? All I see is a hard freeze watch
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#82 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:40 pm

bella_may wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I'm excited for the folks in Texas. They are getting their winter wonderland!

For us on the Gulf coast, Mobile county added to the advisory.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/0ee5127f563480e50fded649349c758e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/5bda4c4cf667208470bc12bad624372d.jpg

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Where are you seeing the advisory? All I see is a hard freeze watch



You are right. I saw the blue and thought they expanded it east.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#83 Postby Steve » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:29 pm

Yeah, we're just too far east this time in Gulf of Mexican AL/FL. It's not out of the question they could see some wintry-mix into New Orleans and Metairie, but the problem for them and the MS Gulf Coast is the timing. Because they will see temps fall after most of the precip is through*, I feel like you gotta look north and northwest. Looks like the low/mid 20's is the worst most of us are going to see at least from Houma on eastward through NWFL.

I do recall going to visit Bulldog [tm, RIP] in Anniston once around 2008 or 2009 when there was a low coming up from the Gulf. It was supposed to be a big snowstorm for them. But all the bands set up south of there around Hattiesburg. You never know exactly where the snowbands are going to line up as the low is lifting up. This low has a more NE than ENE component to it, so the precipitation will be through a little faster in this type of setup.

*I got sleeted on once in the high 40's. Didn't even think that was possible.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#84 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:43 pm

Interesting thing to note, it is already below freezing
in Baton Rouge and dropping.


quote="Steve"]Yeah, we're just too far east this time in Gulf of Mexican AL/FL. It's not out of the question they could see some wintry-mix into New Orleans and Metairie, but the problem for them and the MS Gulf Coast is the timing. Because they will see temps fall after most of the precip is through*, I feel like you gotta look north and northwest. Looks like the low/mid 20's is the worst most of us are going to see at least from Houma on eastward through NWFL.

I do recall going to visit Bulldog [tm, RIP] in Anniston once around 2008 or 2009 when there was a low coming up from the Gulf. It was supposed to be a big snowstorm for them. But all the bands set up south of there around Hattiesburg. You never know exactly where the snowbands are going to line up as the low is lifting up. This low has a more NE than ENE component to it, so the precipitation will be through a little faster in this type of setup.

*I got sleeted on once in the high 40's. Didn't even think that was possible.[/quote]
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#85 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:45 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Interesting thing to note, it is already below freezing in Baton Rouge and dropping.
The moisture in whatever form is moving in a lot earlier
than expected.


quote="Steve"]Yeah, we're just too far east this time in Gulf of Mexican AL/FL. It's not out of the question they could see some wintry-mix into New Orleans and Metairie, but the problem for them and the MS Gulf Coast is the timing. Because they will see temps fall after most of the precip is through*, I feel like you gotta look north and northwest. Looks like the low/mid 20's is the worst most of us are going to see at least from Houma on eastward through NWFL.

I do recall going to visit Bulldog [tm, RIP] in Anniston once around 2008 or 2009 when there was a low coming up from the Gulf. It was supposed to be a big snowstorm for them. But all the bands set up south of there around Hattiesburg. You never know exactly where the snowbands are going to line up as the low is lifting up. This low has a more NE than ENE component to it, so the precipitation will be through a little faster in this type of setup.

*I got sleeted on once in the high 40's. Didn't even think that was possible.
[/quote]
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#86 Postby Steve » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:03 pm

Yeah. They should get some freezing rain up there and possibly sleet/snow. We'll have to see what comes up later with all that overrunning moisture down in Cameron Parish and Acadiana coming up. Usually we have more rain out front which cools the air columns. But since it's night, it's not going to warm up. Anything from now on in BR should be frozen as it's not even 10:00pm yet, and you don't expect it to get above freezing as the precip coming up the SW builds in.
https://www.weather.gov/lch/
Last edited by Steve on Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#87 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:05 pm

Likelihood of parts of SE Louisiana and Southern Mississippi suffering a crippling ice storm increasing by the hour.

Latest model runs shifting the band of heavy ice accumulations southward more towards Baton Rouge. Chances of New Orleans getting in on ice also increasing.

Also, after this round of precip finishes, comes the bitter cold temperatures. Us on the Gulf Coast are on the outer edges of this ridiculous cold snap while Texas and Oklahoma are getting the brunt of this. For example, my forecast low is 21 (up a few ticks from 19 last night) and my relatives in Beaumont are forecast to be around 17 tomorrow night, they were even lower.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#88 Postby Steve » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:09 pm

^^HRRR 02z jogs the low a hair east before lifting out. Is that what you're referring to or do you have other High Resolution updates?

Hammond is around 32, so they should get some freezing rain as well which means iced roads. New Orleans is still at 40. Houma is 38. And Lafayette is about 28.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#89 Postby Jag95 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:22 pm

Steve wrote:^^HRRR 02z jogs the low a hair east before lifting out. Is that what you're referring to or do you have other High Resolution updates?

Hammond is around 32, so they should get some freezing rain as well which means iced roads. New Orleans is still at 40. Houma is 38. And Lafayette is about 28.


NWS Mobile 10 pm discussion mentions a modest adjustment to the trajectory of the surface low per the extended HRRR and RAP guidance. Also mentions that this could lead to a quicker advance into the area of the colder air on Monday. Also worth noting is the mention of possible severe weather to the east of the low.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#90 Postby Jag95 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:24 pm

Jag95 wrote:
Steve wrote:^^HRRR 02z jogs the low a hair east before lifting out. Is that what you're referring to or do you have other High Resolution updates?

Hammond is around 32, so they should get some freezing rain as well which means iced roads. New Orleans is still at 40. Houma is 38. And Lafayette is about 28.


NWS Mobile 10 pm discussion mentions a modest adjustment to the trajectory of the surface low per the extended HRRR and RAP guidance. Also mentions that this could lead to a quicker advance into the area of the colder air on Monday. Also worth noting is the mention of possible severe weather to the east of the low.

"Regarding the cold air building into the area noted in the first
paragraph, an interesting trend has been noted in the Nam, GFS,
Euro, and Canadian which have all trended towards a quicker
advancement of the colder air into the region on Monday, albeit to
varying degrees. The extended HRRR and RAP guidance also show
this trend. This trend is reflected in the latest guidance for the
trajectory of the surface low, which moves to just south of the
Alabama coast by noon Monday"
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#91 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:03 am

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#92 Postby HeeBGBz » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:25 am

Hi y'all! This storm looks like it could be trouble. Did they stop naming winter storms? I just hope we don't lose power. Looks like the precip will be reaching us soon.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#93 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:49 am

Now winter weather advisories have been nudged to the southeast to include all of inland Southeast MS. Icing could begin there as early as noon. Not good
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#94 Postby Jag95 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:02 am

bella_may wrote:Now winter weather advisories have been nudged to the southeast to include all of inland Southeast MS. Icing could begin there as early as noon. Not good


The rain has transitioned to snow in Hattiesburg. At least that is what the 10 am observation is.
<edit> back to 'unknown precipitation' at 11 am. Getting some lightning where I am.
Last edited by Jag95 on Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#95 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:01 pm

NW Florida upgraded to a level 3. I don't think I've seen a high level for severe weather so close to winter weather warningsImageImage

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#96 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:05 pm

Currently sitting at 33 in Lucedale. Temps are a good 3-4 hours ahead of schedule
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#97 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:31 pm

Anddd here comes the sleet
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#98 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:58 pm

Alabama Law Enforcement Agency
@ALEAprotects
The Bankhead Tunnel in Mobile will be closed this evening from 5:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. while a deicing agent is sprayed on the roadway.

Also, tornado watch has been issued for Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties in Florida until 6pm.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#99 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:03 pm

Thundering loud now. Tornado watch is upImage

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#100 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:08 pm

Now 30 degrees. Sleet is not as heavy but freezing rain is starting to accumulate. This was not in the forecast at all...
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