Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

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Bizzles
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Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#1 Postby Bizzles » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:22 am

Since we don't have a Mid Atl winter thread, this storm looks very interesting.

Weakening low comes out of Ohio and merges (and stalls) with a low coming up the SE coast.

GFS and CMC are in agreement with the setup. Both are increasing totals along highway 81 in Virginia which bodes well for the strengthening of the southern low.

Looks like an initial round of snow (currently overnight into Monday), but then the stall could very well be the largest producer of accumulation later Monday.

I'll be closely watching for the stall, trending colder in my area and with the low parked right of the NJ coast we could see a few hours of heavy banding late Monday before the system moves away from the Mid Atl.
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#2 Postby Bizzles » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:24 am

481
FXUS61 KPHI 291135
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
635 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A complex area of low pressure will impact the region for the
first half of the new week. Details are still coming into place,
but the overall trend is for one area of low pressure to
continue to develop over the Southeast ahead of another area of
low pressure over the Ohio Valley. The low over the Southeast
lifts north along the coast Sunday and establishes itself off
the New Jersey coast Sunday night and Monday. An upper trough
with a closed low passes through the Northeast on Monday, and
the previous low over the Ohio Valley slowly works its way
through the region and merges with the low off the New Jersey
coast Monday night, then slowly departs on Tuesday.

There are still many differences among the models in terms of
timing and placement of each low. As a result, there are
differences in terms of how far north and west bands of precip
will spread, and how far to the north and west the rain/snow
line will spread as well. As a result, this remains a low
confidence forecast, and much can change. The farther north the
storm will track, the more snow will fall across interior
portions of the forecast area, and the more rain will fall
across the southern portions. However, if the low takes more of
a southern track, then less snow will fall across the interior,
and there will be less of a chance for precip to change to rain,
resulting in more snow for the southern half of the forecast
area. Will also have to watch for banding of precip around the
center of the offshore low, as heavier bands area possible, and
it remains to be seen how far west those bands will spread and
where they will set up.

Initially, it will be quite cold and dry on Sunday, and it will
take some time for the surface moisture to overcome the dry air
and for precip to reach the ground. However, temps will remain
cold enough for precip to fall as all snow until late Sunday
afternoon, when some of the warmer air will lift into southern
Delmarva and into Cape May, New Jersey. A little bit of mixing
will develop late Sunday and into Sunday night.

Generally expecting less than an inch of snow for most of the
region Sunday, with 1-2 inches for western portions of the
Delaware Valley and Delmarva.

Going through Sunday night, as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast lifts to the north, precip increases in intensity through
the overnight hours, and questions remain as to how far north
the rain/snow line will spread. Based on the latest trends,
think the warmer air will hold off until Monday morning, and
looking at a good 2-4 inches of snow from around Trenton or so
south and west into the northern half of Delmarva and into
southern New Jersey. The highest banding possible in the
Atlantic City area.

The two lows merge off the New Jersey coast on Monday, and
bands of moderate to locally heavy precip will continue to
impact most of the region. Looks like enough warm air will be
able to spread through southern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey, and the bands of snow will mainly impacts areas north of
Philadelphia, but south of the Poconos. Another 2-4 inches of
snow is possible in these areas.

Sided with the colder guidance for Monday, and this keeps more
of the region in snow, as opposed to a rain/snow mix, or even
plain rain. Strong northeast winds will develop Sunday night
and continue through Monday. A Wind Advisory may be needed for
the coastal areas.

The low meanders off the coast Monday night and slowly departs
on Tuesday. Precip should lose intensity, but continues.

High pressure then returns for the mid-week period, and
temperatures return to near and maybe slightly above normal
levels.

&&

$$

Long Term...MPS
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#3 Postby Bizzles » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:31 am

Image
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#4 Postby Bizzles » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:32 am

Image
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#5 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:38 am

I was considering making a thread for it. This current storm is very strong and is producing hurricane force winds. A pressure of 28.33 hPa is very low as well.
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#6 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:00 pm

The GEM 24 hour accumulations are over a foot for most of New England sometime during the 48 to 54 hour window. They depict higher banding accumulations all the way north to down-east Maine later in the forecast.
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#7 Postby Bizzles » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:01 am

Not a bad little storm here in NJ, Philly burbs NW and Poconos got hammered w/ almost 2 feet.

Sunday night didn't amount to much, about 3-4 inches. Big lull during the day yesterday w/ a little over an inch. Picked back up around 4:30/5pm and dumped another 4-5 inches overnight.

Still snowing @ work (East Windsor), expecting another inch or two during the day today.
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Re: Jan/Feb 2021 Nor'Easter - Mid Atlantic

#8 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:16 am

An impressive eye like feature has appeared along the low level center, however circulation is very limited surrounding it. It should strengthen throughout the day with extreme contrasts throughout the atmosphere in temperature. The Jet stream should also enhance it as it aligns with the storm.
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