Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TropicalTundra]

Maybe a change of heart by January?

[Iceresistance]

Maybe a change of heart by January?

https://i.imgur.com/POcvLOb.jpg

The CFS (And CFSv2) has been showing powerful cold waves by around Christmas week into January for a while now.

[Brent]

Maybe a change of heart by January?

https://i.imgur.com/POcvLOb.jpg

At least it's cold somewhere but that looks mostly east of us

[Brent]

snow within driving distance in a week?

[Iceresistance]

:spam: snow within driving distance in a week?

https://i.ibb.co/vhgJYFv/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

Go to Amarillo, TX, then follow the snow to Kansas City, & you will be happy for the December snow.

[HockeyTx82]

The rant was deleted..... been a while since we had one of those around here.

Keep it friendly people and don't make it personal.

[tolakram]

Let me re-enforce this.

I don't care what the topic, anyone who attacks another user will find themselves deactivated and their post moved to moderation for review. It's been a long while since I've seen anything that bad. Don't tell other people here what they should or should not do. Give your opinions and move on. Jeepers.

[Cerlin]

Didn’t check the forum last night, what did I miss

[HockeyTx82]

Let me re-enforce this.

I don't care what the topic, anyone who attacks another user will find themselves deactivated and their post moved to moderation for review. It's been a long while since I've seen anything that bad. Don't tell other people here what they should or should not do. Give your opinions and move on. Jeepers.

I happened to read and knew right away it was going to be removed. Reminds me of that time we had that blowup about a snow bullseye during December maybe 2008ish? Something with Wichita Falls I think.

[wxman57]

:spam: snow within driving distance in a week?

https://i.ibb.co/vhgJYFv/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

The 00Z ECMWF says it wants some of what the GFS was smoking. 12Z GFS says "never mind" about next week's snow in OK/north TX.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS is STILL showing a signal for snowfall next week across the Southern Plains (Especially Kansas & Oklahoma)

[snowballzzz]

Things are not looking good for the long range, IMO... Does this start to December and what the models are showing resemble any past years that anyone can think of?

[TropicalTundra]

The rant was deleted..... been a while since we had one of those around here.

Keep it friendly people and don't make it personal.

What happened?

[HockeyTx82]

The rant was deleted..... been a while since we had one of those around here.

Keep it friendly people and don't make it personal.

What happened?

There was a personal rant directed at someone who used some very rude and insulting language. I'll leave it at that and let an admin add more if they want.

[TheProfessor]

Next week's system will be interesting for the Central Plains. If it ends up being too shallow and progressive we will likely see nada with little to no precipitation. However, even just a little amplified like past GFS and current Canadian runs show could bring a quick dump to parts of Kansas. There is some GEFS support, 12z run went in the wrong direction a bit, but it's still there. Will be interesting to see how that trends, will be rooting for a more amplified system though.

[Cerlin]

The rant was deleted..... been a while since we had one of those around here.

Keep it friendly people and don't make it personal.

What happened?

There was a personal rant directed at someone who used some very rude and insulting language. I'll leave it at that and let an admin add more if they want.

I think it was somehow in response to a post I made yesterday (I have notifications that someone quoted me at around 2 am but I'm unauthorized to view it) but I didn't think I was doing anything personal. I just had posted some scientific links to justify why someone said an event was caused the way it was.

[Iceresistance]

What happened?

There was a personal rant directed at someone who used some very rude and insulting language. I'll leave it at that and let an admin add more if they want.

I think it was somehow in response to a post I made yesterday (I have notifications that someone quoted me at around 2 am but I'm unauthorized to view it) but I didn't think I was doing anything personal. I just had posted some scientific links to justify why someone said an event was caused the way it was.

I saw that rant too (I had insomnia problems last night), the user was likely in a very angry mood.

[MGC]

75 wonderful degrees here on the Mississippi Coast. Hope all of y'all over in Texas have a wonderful winter with lots of snow and cold.......MGC

[TropicalTundra]

The CFS run has snow for most of the state between Christmas and New Year's Can't wait for the gfs to get in range...

[Ntxw]

With the warmth right now it's hard to be optimistic.

So let's discuss how things can change. Has there been a season with a similar start to December and a proverbial flip? There has been.

The year was December 1990. In fact the cards were stacked the same, very cold Alaska and Northern Canada with a strong Aleutian ridge. It even featured very similar SST anomaly except it was weak +neutral. I'd still say it's a viable despite the different times.

Start of December 1990. Was mild and very close 500mb look.




Current period coming up.





After mid-month 1990 a very cold period ensued with the western trof that was able to spill out into the plains. DFW got as cold as 10F on December 23rd.

After 15th 1990 the very cold source spilled.





SSTa.

1990


Current



Can it happen again? Absolutely yes. If the Aleutian Ridge can nudge a bit east and poleward it can happen again.