Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

12z Canadian is actually somewhat similar with that lead wave but it's much further north and thus the secondary low dumps snow in Kansas. Unfortunately the CMC is also extremely positively tilted and it limits the 2nd system (Though I'd still take the 2" it gives me for sure.). The GFS was slower and more neutrally tilted with that main energy than the Canadian (which isn't usual). I'd love to see what the CMC would have spit out if it had done that

[Iceresistance]

12z Canadian is actually somewhat similar with that lead wave but it's much further north and thus the secondary low dumps snow in Kansas. Unfortunately the CMC is also extremely positively tilted and it limits the 2nd system (Though I'd still take the 2" it gives me for sure.). The GFS was slower and more neutrally tilted with that main energy than the Canadian (which isn't usual). I'd love to see what the CMC would have spit out if it had done that

I would miss out on the snow since it's further north into Kansas


And also, do you have Pivotal Weather Plus? (I don't if you wanted to know)

[TheProfessor]

12z Canadian is actually somewhat similar with that lead wave but it's much further north and thus the secondary low dumps snow in Kansas. Unfortunately the CMC is also extremely positively tilted and it limits the 2nd system (Though I'd still take the 2" it gives me for sure.). The GFS was slower and more neutrally tilted with that main energy than the Canadian (which isn't usual). I'd love to see what the CMC would have spit out if it had done that

I would miss out on the snow since it's further north into Kansas


And also, do you have Pivotal Weather Plus? (I don't if you wanted to know)

I was able to convince my SOO to convince Central Region to buy it for the NWS offices so yeah I have it.

[Iceresistance]

12z Canadian is actually somewhat similar with that lead wave but it's much further north and thus the secondary low dumps snow in Kansas. Unfortunately the CMC is also extremely positively tilted and it limits the 2nd system (Though I'd still take the 2" it gives me for sure.). The GFS was slower and more neutrally tilted with that main energy than the Canadian (which isn't usual). I'd love to see what the CMC would have spit out if it had done that

I would miss out on the snow since it's further north into Kansas


And also, do you have Pivotal Weather Plus? (I don't if you wanted to know)

I was able to convince my SOO to convince Central Region to buy it for the NWS offices so yeah I have it.

You can see the 6z & 18z Euro model runs! They added that feature just a couple days ago.

[Cerlin]

The NAM has me very interested for Wednesday here in Oklahoma. I’d been watching the middle of next week for a couple days on the global runs but none really seemed to bite on that trough producing anything. However, the NAM has had a few runs in a row with a chance for some flurries in various places around the state. If that trough can slow down just a little and deepen, there could easily be a line of snow storms that makes it way through the state early Wednesday morning.

[Iceresistance]

Definitely need to keep an eye on the PV starting around Christmas Week. GFS & GEFS has it becoming unstable & can get closer to this area, the GEFS is trending this towards us.

EDIT: Not the 18z GEFS, it gets even more stable, stronger, & tighter.

[Brent]

The NAM has me very interested for Wednesday here in Oklahoma. I’d been watching the middle of next week for a couple days on the global runs but none really seemed to bite on that trough producing anything. However, the NAM has had a few runs in a row with a chance for some flurries in various places around the state. If that trough can slow down just a little and deepen, there could easily be a line of snow storms that makes it way through the state early Wednesday morning.

Not sure about Wednesday but next Saturday is already getting mentioned for possible snow showers here

[SnowintheFalls]

The NAM has me very interested for Wednesday here in Oklahoma. I’d been watching the middle of next week for a couple days on the global runs but none really seemed to bite on that trough producing anything. However, the NAM has had a few runs in a row with a chance for some flurries in various places around the state. If that trough can slow down just a little and deepen, there could easily be a line of snow storms that makes it way through the state early Wednesday morning.

Not sure about Wednesday but next Saturday is already getting mentioned for possible snow showers here

Our mets are hinting at some light snow up here next weekend as well. It would be nice if we could at least see some flakes and break up the warm pattern.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does anyone have a link for having exact point GFS data? My old site now says its a security risk. My hunting buddies need it so i can give them potential wind forecasts days in advance. Thanks fellas, appreciate you guys!

[Iceresistance]

Does anyone have a link for having exact point GFS data? My old site now says its a security risk. My hunting buddies need it so i can give them potential wind forecasts days in advance. Thanks fellas, appreciate you guys!

Windy.com

[TropicalTundra]

CMC looks interesting 170 hours out

[wxman57]

CMC looks interesting 170 hours out

Take a look at the 500mb height, vorticity, and wind for the 00Z Canadian at 162 hrs (18Z Sat) on Levi's Tropical Tidbits page. Now, use the arrows at the bottom to go back to previous runs for comparison. Each run is a completely different solution, meaning it's not to be trusted that the current run is correct. Compare with the ECMWF and GFS patterns and there is a trend toward a shallower and faster-moving 500mb trough, which decreases the chance of significant cold and snow. The models are not handling the progressive pattern well a week in advance.

[Ntxw]

Over and over again the models keeps underestimating the GOA/Alaska low heights. Once again we get teased long range only to get beaten down by this feature as reality comes closer. It is a hard fact we have to deal with the cold waters there this winter and it is not going to be on our side and isn't going away. My best summation is for the next month just assume heights there will be lower and flow will be fast for adjustment.



We get a little cool down, warm up to near record heat, cools down, then mid continental warmth potential again. It isn't the hottest of Decembers, but the reason why it is mild is concerning for the rest of the winter.

There is some hope the MJO could move out of the current position to perhaps shake it up a little bit but that's to be seen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, great work on the analogs. I'll look a them later to see if i see something else interesting. I keep reading how Alaska has had one of its coldest Novembers on record. Something else to look to for clues. Its very cold in that region and with some luck, we can get a solid cold snap into the southern plains.

Just spent 4 days hunting outside of Freer. 85 degrees in them stand isn't too much fun! I have faith a change is coming though.

[Ntxw]

Ntx, great work on the analogs. I'll look a them later to see if i see something else interesting. I keep reading how Alaska has had one of its coldest Novembers on record. Something else to look to for clues. Its very cold in that region and with some luck, we can get a solid cold snap into the southern plains.

Just spent 4 days hunting outside of Freer. 85 degrees in them stand isn't too much fun! I have faith a change is coming though.

So far most of that cold, like in '11-12' is sliding eastward through Canada into Quebec then moderating over the Atlantic. I know we joke about wxman57's wall but if you imagine the GOA lows is a nozzle that shoots the Pacific jet across the northern US/Southern Canada it's very difficult for the cold to cross. It is literally a well fortified wall. It just skirts west to east as soon as it hits that flow.

[harp]

This is truly depressing. Looks like there is no end in sight to this pattern.

[Ntxw]

:( This is truly depressing. Looks like there is no end in sight to this pattern.

Some of the ensembles and guidance are showing attempts of the MJO trying to make a move into the Pacific and better phases. That might help some. But overall neither the EPO or AO playing ball both are signaling overall mild. We can still try to thread needles with big storms if they cross.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntx, great work on the analogs. I'll look a them later to see if i see something else interesting. I keep reading how Alaska has had one of its coldest Novembers on record. Something else to look to for clues. Its very cold in that region and with some luck, we can get a solid cold snap into the southern plains.

Just spent 4 days hunting outside of Freer. 85 degrees in them stand isn't too much fun! I have faith a change is coming though.

So far most of that cold, like in '11-12' is sliding eastward through Canada into Quebec then moderating over the Atlantic. I know we joke about wxman57's wall but if you imagine the GOA lows is a nozzle that shoots the Pacific jet across the northern US/Southern Canada it's very difficult for the cold to cross. It is literally a well fortified wall. It just skirts west to east as soon as it hits that flow.

Right. It's better to have a Oshtok (sp?) low, which resides west of alaska into NE Russia. Lets hope things retrograde. Forcings just aren't in our favor right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:( This is truly depressing. Looks like there is no end in sight to this pattern.

Some of the ensembles and guidance are showing attempts of the MJO trying to make a move into the Pacific and better phases. That might help some. But overall neither the EPO or AO playing ball both are signaling overall mild. We can still try to thread needles with big storms if they cross.

We may get our first measurable snow in Denver this Friday. 2 weeks later than the first snow on record before. Typically, Novembers can be very dry though but i think its a significant stat. Many of their longest, largest snow droughts go back to the late 1800's. The high is slipping a bit to the west for a week. Should provide some cold and snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wake me up in January. Front-end loaded Texas winters seem to end up boring anyway, so I’m just going to wait til the prime months to consider getting my hopes up.