Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Oh, and I would completely trust that the 6Z 384hr GFS panel is correct...

[Iceresistance]

Looks bad right now.

But MJO still showing some life as the ensembles and OP are now trying to move it to P7 and out into the Pacific. That'll help with the EPO. In turn, the models are showing some Okhotsk ->Aleutian low activity that may start to disturb the TPV. But that's way out there if it still sticks around.

The MJO is currently stuck in Phase 6, but it's still expected to move into Phase 7 in the next several Days.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh, and I would completely trust that the 6Z 384hr GFS panel is correct...

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

I think I speak for all/most of us Lucy, I mean Wxman57: “Go away.”

All kidding aside, I fear we may get plenty of hot and dry weather next year. Especially next summer. You may get plenty of bike riding weather in 2022.

[Cpv17]

This progressive pattern is not conducive to bringing the cold air south to Texas. I don't see a pattern change in the works prior to Christmas. Meanwhile, let's all enjoy the much above normal temperatures and be thankful that we're not dealing with ice and snow. La NIna winters are generally warm and dry across Texas.

I thought you liked snow? I thought that’s the only time you’re ok if it’s cold..

[Iceresistance]

8-14 Day CPC is looking extremely ugly.

[starsfan65]

8-14 Day CPC is looking extremely ugly.

warm?

[wxman57]

This progressive pattern is not conducive to bringing the cold air south to Texas. I don't see a pattern change in the works prior to Christmas. Meanwhile, let's all enjoy the much above normal temperatures and be thankful that we're not dealing with ice and snow. La NIna winters are generally warm and dry across Texas.

I thought you liked snow? I thought that’s the only time you’re ok if it’s cold..

Correct, I do like snow, and if I ever see snow REALLY coming, then I'll be shouting from the highest overpass about it. Ideally, it would only snow when it's hot, like in July, but I can't have everything.

[Ntxw]

8-14 Day CPC is looking extremely ugly.

warm?

Warm, heat, near records for December.

Still seeing subtle signs for the MJO. It's our chance to shake up the pattern but nothing immediate. I would say if this does come to fruition then a slow step down process after we pass the extreme mild pattern for the next 2 weeks.

[Cerlin]

I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up

[TropicalTundra]

I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up

The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!

[wxman57]

I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up

The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!

The ICON has some snow in the Panhandle Saturday morning and highs in the mid to upper 40s in the D-FW area. Not exactly a snow forecast. At least the high is below 80F this weekend up there.

[Iceresistance]

GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png

[Iceresistance]

I think I’m throwing in the towel for this weekend. We’ve lost the CMC. Better luck once the MJO hopefully shuffled things up

The ICON's still holding on. Don't give up yet!

Even then, the ICON is losing snow as well.

[Ntxw]

GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png

It does show warming over Asia into the Bering Sea/Aleutians which is where it needs to start. Once you see big low pressures sending heat flux into the Arctic then we can start to believe something may happen. The MJO into P7-8 is when you see the tropics force the lows in the North Pacific.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12 days out looks horrible. Sigh.

[wxman57]

GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png

If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?

[Ntxw]

MJO is amping up and going on the move. This is a catalyst that could reverse the pattern. It won't happen right away but 2-3 weeks for things to get reflect the shift. I'd start believing on some modeled cold by week 3 or 4 so towards the end of the month once it arrives at the dateline.





Some hope!

[Iceresistance]

GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png

If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?

It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.

[Ntxw]

Dec-Jan 1984-1985 did a similar strut of the MJO but not quite as quick. December spent most of it in p6 (and hot) like we are now and moved in early Jan. I made a post last week if we were taking a 1984 or 1990 path and it seems 1990 is not happening but 1984 is not a bad compromise, just have to wait it out a little longer.

If this does happen we are liable for a major cold dump tail end of the month and January.

[Cerlin]

GFS is starting to show consistency of a powerful SSW that will cause a severely disrupted PV & may cause a Cold wave at around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/YIKES.png

If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?

It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.

And I think that’s a sign of the GFS overestimating the strength of events (PV, troughs, moisture, etc.) rather than being a good indicator