Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#221 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:41 pm

The CPC outlook for the next 4 weeks is ugly! Hopefully it’s wrong.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#222 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:49 pm

Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#223 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:53 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.


The CPC isn’t buying it:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#224 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:54 pm

Models definitely look less bleak than before but I'm still concerned about the Southeast ridge being too big and we largely torch outside of a cold day here and there

Yeah the CPC map is horrible no doubt but it's not like they've been perfect before
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#225 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Starting to get a bit more optimistic for the end of the week next weekend system here in the Central Plains. That will be around the time we may be entering phase 7 with a -PNA and what seems to be a +NAO (though the most uncertain tele right now) and a mostly positive AO that the ensembles have bouncing around. With that setup I'm less concerned about cold air bleeding east and southeast but instead a storm that intensifies too quickly west of here like the CMC has (but if we get rain out of it I'd be happy). 12z Euro looked fun, not too much snow in Wichita proper, but would be a fun forecast for our CWA. I just want to see some run to run consistency though lol. Hopefully we will have some agreement (in favor of snow) by Tuesday so I can make a fancy AFD for my long range forecast.


The CPC isn’t buying it:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif


We've seen CPC forecasts bust before, not to mention that to them above normal can be as simple as 1 degree and with us being above normal Friday ahead of the front and then possibly above normal towards the end of that period on the 12th and 13 it's reasonable to have above normal odd over those days and still have a short below normal period with winter precip. Though if the 12z Euro is right their forecast will be wrong.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#226 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:17 pm

I believe that there is a SSW going on right now . . . :eek:

10m Temp & Height is saying it all on the models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#227 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:41 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I believe that there is a SSW going on right now . . . :eek:

10m Temp & Height is saying it all on the models.


There is a tendency to overuse the SSW events. The vortex is quite strong top to bottom, there's always shifting and stretching here and there but overall it's stable. For a true SSW you need significant actual temperature warming of the stratosphere, wind reversal, a split, or significant displacement none of which is occurring or imminent.

You'll need a big Aleutian low or Eurasia heat flux events to begin the disruption process.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#228 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:21 pm

I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#229 Postby Cerlin » Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG


To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.

Image
Last edited by Cerlin on Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#230 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG


Travis Herzog has 30’s in his forecast for Houston at the end of his forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#231 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG


Maybe not down there but definitely up here. May still not be that cold for December but compared to this week certainly. Actually Tuesday originally looked to be a quick warmup back near 70 and instead it's trended down to near 50 for a high. Next weekend looks like a potentially more significant cold. The snow yeah we'll see I'm not remotely buying it yet but it's certainly never gonna happen with a torch :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#232 Postby Cerlin » Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:28 am

Cerlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG


To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.

https://i.ibb.co/gd5mLM3/13318-B39-E5-BD-4-EA7-A93-E-1702-A401513-A.gif

I take it back. 00z GEFS was not promising.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#233 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:03 am

Cerlin wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any cold trend in the models next week. Euro has been consistent in keeping the snow in Kansas and northward. 18Z GFS says no snow in OK or TX, which appears more believable. Be careful trusting the GFS beyond about 3 days. On the map below, the first colored contour is typically where the snow starts. Ignore the gray shading.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow.JPG


To be fair, the GEFS has also been very consistent and has actually progressed the colored contour line ever so slightly south over the day. Euro wins 7 days out 9/10 times but I wouldn’t necessarily toss aside the GFS ensembles just yet.

https://i.ibb.co/gd5mLM3/13318-B39-E5-BD-4-EA7-A93-E-1702-A401513-A.gif

I take it back. 00z GEFS was not promising.


6z GEFS is even worse
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#234 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:16 am

The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.

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https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#235 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:20 am

Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif


Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#236 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:02 am

NDG wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif


Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?


The SSW usually occurs on the outer edges of the PV (Usually near the Arctic Circle) & it can cause it to become unstable, the GFS is now hinting it as well on the 6z runs, showing the PV bending towards the CONUS at around Christmas Week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#237 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:11 am

Now the GFS moved the snow back north to Kansas and the European has snow down to Wichita Falls around the 11th. :lol:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021120400&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#238 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:08 am

That Tuesday/Wednesday system is going to be sneaky for me. I think someone in my CWA sees there first measurable snowfall. The NAM is a little more excited than the GFS right now, but it has some ensemble support.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#239 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:28 am

Iceresistance wrote:
NDG wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The GEFS has been showing another SSW over Asia by Mid-December for quite some time, that eventually leads to the PV & the very cold air to slowly come our way by around Christmas Week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh336_trend.gif



Doesn't that has to happen over the NP and not over middle of Asia for the PV to get disrupted?


The SSW usually occurs on the outer edges of the PV (Usually near the Arctic Circle) & it can cause it to become unstable, the GFS is now hinting it as well on the 6z runs, showing the PV bending towards the CONUS at around Christmas Week.


From past experiences that I have seen the disruption in the PV doesn’t happen that fast after a SSW with the SSW usually happening much closer to the NP and not over the middle of Central Asia. I’m not holding my breath of it happening that quick.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#240 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:41 am

I think the GFS just showed us how DFW could cash in on this next weekend's storm. This run actually screws me over as the GFS sends multiple energies around the trough so the first one goes north of me and the second one to the south. However, if we take that solution and shift the first storm where the Euro has it (Over Kansas) then that baroclinic zone sets up further south and the 2nd storm dumps snow over North Texas instead of Oklahoma. I'm personally rooting for this solution, but I know we'll probably get the one where I get nada lol.
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