Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#81 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:52 pm

12z GEFS is having a loose signal of snow from December 5th to December 10th in the Southern Plains
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#82 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:44 pm

12z Euro is Colder, faster compared to the 12z GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#83 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:36 pm

CFS is being very consistent with the December Cold wave Round #2 (And maybe #3 now) at around Christmas Week
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#84 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:21 am

This is what the 6z GFS showed . . . :eek:

2 1060+ MB Highs at the same time.
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_58.png

Another 1059 MB over Montana
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_us_65.png

Powerful Alaska & Greenland Blocks will allow for repeated Cold Waves in December. (Remember! Models tend to underestimate how long the blocks last.)
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh114-384.gif

With the Powerful Highs coming from the Arctic, extremely cold Temperatures are also coming as well . . .
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_fh198-384.gif

3 Big Winter Storms are also in the model, one of them starts just as the model run ends.
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-384.gif

24-hour Kuchera Snowfall Totals
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021112606.snku_024h.conus.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#85 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:51 am

The question is can we get a classic -PNA setup with a trough developing over the Intermountain regions where we would be in the prime spot for cold. Or will we see a +PNA with only a glancing shot and most of the cold going east of us like the Euro has. Will be interesting to see and hopefully it's the former.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#86 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:02 am

TheProfessor wrote:The question is can we get a classic -PNA setup with a trough developing over the Intermountain regions where we would be in the prime spot for cold. Or will we see a +PNA with only a glancing shot and most of the cold going east of us like the Euro has. Will be interesting to see and hopefully it's the former.


Or a Neutral PNA & were in the bullseye zone . . .
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#87 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:31 am

Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#88 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:28 am

12z GFS is surging the Cold Air much faster than the 6z run.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#89 Postby Quixotic » Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:02 pm

Being a nina, I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a December cold dump. The only ones I can remember that didn’t are 07 and 11.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#90 Postby Quixotic » Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:02 pm

Even 05 had a brief dump.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#91 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.


Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#92 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:00 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.


Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.


However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#93 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.


Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.


However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.


I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#94 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.


However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.


I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.


Oh, that one.

The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#95 Postby Cerlin » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:00 am

Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.


I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.


Oh, that one.

The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!

wxman57 is a seasoned vet, if anyone knows about PNA it’ll be him (especially because I’m pretty convinced he installs a positive PNA deflector as a backup to his Canadian Wall each year)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#96 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:33 am

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#97 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.


I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.


Oh, that one.

The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!


Slightly -PNA is best for Texas and southern planes for a snowstorm, IMO. Shooting right through the Rockies, down towards Big Bend area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#98 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:11 am

Cerlin wrote:wxman57 is a seasoned vet, if anyone knows about PNA it’ll be him (especially because I’m pretty convinced he installs a positive PNA deflector as a backup to his Canadian Wall each year)


You read my mind... Meanwhile, recent GFS runs say "what extreme cold?"
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#99 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:20 pm

End of the 12z GFS is February 2021 all over again . . . :eek:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#100 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:28 pm

So if memory serves me correctly a week or so ago this weekend looked like a possible snow storm around today. Thinking on it we had cold, last night, and now we have rain today. Just a timing thing again.
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