Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Repost from the Texas Fall 2021 forum:

Don't worry Y'all, my family has plans on when needing the Space Heaters for the Well house, I'm sure that the water & pipes would be fine this winter.

Since I'm the family & school Forecaster, they rely & count on me on when the time comes. I've warned my family & the school on the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow up to 2 weeks in advance.

[Iceresistance]

The CFS is being abnormally consistent with potential winter mischief for the Central & Southern Plains for Early December.

[losf1981]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

[TropicalTundra]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Yes, mostly likely. The models are definitely trending towards something. We're talking about it in the Texas Fall Thread. If you'd like to post some stuff there here's the link to the thread. viewtopic.php?f=24&t=122033&p=2953932#p2953932

[wxman57]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

[TropicalTundra]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

And...... winter cancel. When you hear 57 talking about "cold air diverter" you already know he's developing the "winter extinguisher".

[starsfan65]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

And...... winter cancel.

Winter isn't cancelled!!!

[Cpv17]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

Models may be trending away from the cold but they’re trending very wet which is fine by me!

[starsfan65]

anybody seeing anything about a potential winter event around thanksgiving day? Local met saying "with a grain of salt" that the euro model "paints a winter storm across north texas and oklahoma around thanksgiving day". I know that's a week out so things can change, but was curious to get yall's thoughts. Thanks!

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

Models may be trending away from the cold but they’re trending very wet which is fine by me!

The models ain't trending away from the cold!!!

[Iceresistance]

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

Models may be trending away from the cold but they’re trending very wet which is fine by me!

The models ain't trending away from the cold!!!

He's trying to control the GFS, the cold failed to materialize on the 12z compared to the 6z, but this happened before with the February 2021 Extreme Cold & snow in the same time period.

[Cpv17]

Models are trending away from significant cold in Texas around Thanksgiving. As with previous systems, they're not handling the pattern well very far out. Or, it could be that my cold air diverter is just doing its job very well.

Models may be trending away from the cold but they’re trending very wet which is fine by me!

The models ain't trending away from the cold!!!

Unfortunately it looks like they are but the good news is that it’s still far out and has time to switch back to the cold solution.

[wxman57]

Pattern so far is models see significant cold 10+ days out before realizing they were wrong about 7 days out. Cold air diverted east. New Euro has temps in 50s-60s up in the DFW area next Thu-Sat. Not a snow pattern. I'm looking for payback for last February this winter. 2021-2022 - the winter of wxman57!

[Iceresistance]

Pattern so far is models see significant cold 10+ days out before realizing they were wrong about 7 days out. Cold air diverted east. New Euro has temps in 50s-60s up in the DFW area next Thu-Sat. Not a snow pattern. I'm looking for payback for last February this winter. 2021-2022 - the winter of wxman57!

I'm not sure about that in February, we're overdue for a Back-to-back February Cold Wave event (Example: February 1977 & 1978)

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist
This is SE TX centric

Potential for a stormy Thanksgiving Day

Cool front has progressed into the Gulf waters overnight and refreshing air mass will be short lived as winds quickly turn back SE and S by Tuesday. An upper level trough will be digging into the western US over the next few days with the northern portion of this trough being progressive and moving toward the Great Lakes which in turn will drag a cold front into TX Wednesday into Thursday. The southern portion of this trough looks to cut-off over the Baja region and remain in that area into the weekend (more on that later).

Moisture and warmth will quickly return to TX starting on Tuesday with moisture levels continuing to build into Wednesday and Thursday. Progged soundings show impressive moisture is forecast to be in place by Thursday with PWS of 1.7-1.9 inches over the region which is near maximum values for mid to late November. As the upper level flow transitions to SW aloft a series of upper level disturbances will move across the region starting on Wednesday and into Thursday. Surface cold front will move into the area on Thursday…although timing differences remain in global guidance and when exactly the front moves across the area. All this points to a period of active weather centered around Thanksgiving day with the passage of the frontal boundary in a deep moisture environment. Currently looking at instability somewhat lacking for any severe weather, but some strong storms could be possible. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely over much of the area on Thanksgiving Day with possibly some isolated higher totals given the moisture forecast to be in place.

Front appears progressive and should be to the coast and offshore Thanksgiving evening into early Friday with rain ending from NW to SE. However, the southern portion of the trough remains back over Baja and with SW flow aloft over top of the incoming cold air mass from the north, clouds will likely be hard to clear into Friday. A cold air mass will sink into the state with highs likely only near 60 on Friday. Next question is when does the cut-off system near Baja this weekend begin to head ENE and toward TX. Current thinking is this may happen over the weekend into the early part of next week with increasing chances for showers. Such systems are hard to time and usually eject slower than guidance suggests, but they can also send disturbances out ahead of the main portion and this may happen over the weekend, so while the forecast post front on Thursday is a fairly dry one, there is uncertainly and rain chances may be needed in the post frontal air mass over the weekend.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS model is showing consistency for possibly 1-2 major Winter Storms across the Central Plains in the 1st week of December

[vbhoutex]

Today's SE TX forecast from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms likely on Thanksgiving Day.

Southerly winds will begin to return to SE TX later today and moisture will be on the increase especially later Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will move into TX on Wednesday and move SE and off the TX coast late Thursday. Along and ahead of this front, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop across much of the area on Thanksgiving Day.

Impressive moisture advection will begin in earnest on Wednesday with PWS increasing from a bone dry .50 of an inch this morning toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday and then toward 1.75 inches on Thursday. Clouds will quickly increase on Wednesday as warm air advection pattern intensifies, but not likely to see much in the way of showers until maybe Wednesday night.

Cold front arrives from the NW on Thursday…College Station (7-9am)…metro areas (10am-100pm) and coast (2-4pm). Still some differences on the timing and if anything it could be a bit faster. As the front moves into the moist air mass over SE TX and increasingly favorable jet stream dynamics aloft widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely for most areas with isolated totals upwards of 3-4 inches especially from Matagorda Bay to Wharton to Fort Bend County and maybe NW into western Harris County. Grounds are generally dry and overall system motion is fast, so not expecting many flood related issues, minus the normal street flooding that is possible with heavy rainfall rates.

Front pushes to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon with rains ending and colder air mass filtering across the region. Friday looks dry and there may be enough drying aloft to decrease clouds, but they will come back quickly Friday night into Saturday as the Baja cut-off low begins to eject toward TX.

Cut-off Baja upper level system looks to move across the area over the weekend and as mentioned yesterday, rain chances will likely need to be raised for the Saturday into early Sunday period. With cold air at the surface and warm advection over top of that surface cold dome, widespread light to moderate rains will develop from SW to NE on Saturday as lift increases out of NE MX ahead of the Baja storm system.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is being extremely consistent with a possible Cold wave in the 1st-2nd week of December.

[WinterMax]

GFS beginning to show fantasy snow storms.

[Brandon8181]

After the year we had last year does anyone ever want snow? lol. I'm from Sherman/Denison area where we had several rounds of good snow over the last couple of decades. Then in 2012 I moved to Tyler, TX and it has been lacking for sure. Though, last year, -6 degrees and several rounds of multi inch show! Wow, once in a life time. Anxious to see what this winter brings.

[Iceresistance]

These 1059MB (over Wyoming) & 1058MB (over Colorado) Highs are no joke!


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