2003 Hurricane Season and Upcoming Winter

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Stephanie
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#21 Postby Stephanie » Mon Sep 22, 2003 8:03 pm

That would be interesting indeed!

As Don discussed above in his comparison of 1992 versus 1995, they were two extremes in hurricane activity. In 1995 we had 5 US strikes, all originating in the GOM, 3 hurricanes and 2 tropical storms. One of the hurricanes, Opal, was a Cat 4. In 1992, there were only two US strikes, Andrew and Tropical Storm Danielle which hit the DelMarVa. Both originated out of the Atlantic.

With that in mind, it would be interesting to see if origination and final destination would also play in the correlation between hurricanes and snowfall? The winter of 1993 gave us the "Superstorm" that affected the whole East Coast. Hmmm....
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#22 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Sep 22, 2003 8:55 pm

Stephanie,

When one compares hurricane seasons as having the majority of activity in the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic, there is little difference in seasonal snowfall: an average of 27.4" vs. 28.6" for NYC (which I use due to its long record that dates back to 1869). However, when one begins to consider storm intensities, frequency, etc., one begins to see meaningful differences.
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#23 Postby Stephanie » Tue Sep 23, 2003 12:29 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:Stephanie,

When one compares hurricane seasons as having the majority of activity in the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic, there is little difference in seasonal snowfall: an average of 27.4" vs. 28.6" for NYC (which I use due to its long record that dates back to 1869). However, when one begins to consider storm intensities, frequency, etc., one begins to see meaningful differences.


I forgot to mention that after the busy hurricane season of 1995, we also had the Blizzard of 1996. This is probably were the comparison of intensities and frequency would come into play as you said Don.
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#24 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Sep 23, 2003 1:08 pm

Stephanie,

Actually, I have found that if the average intensity of all landfalling hurricanes (Gulf or Atlantic season) is greater than Category 3 (at landfall) then NYC typically can expect less than 25" of snow during the upcoming season.

This may well be due to the impact such storms have on cooling the ocean, which during the winter tends to cap the development of potential storms due to a reduced temperature contrast between the atmosphere and the ocean.

This is a somewhat rare occurrence (8 times in the past 134 years since regular record keeping began in Central Park). Yet, 7 of 8 times, seasonal snowfall failed to reach 25".
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#25 Postby Stephanie » Tue Sep 23, 2003 1:21 pm

It'll be interesting to see what happens this winter!
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#26 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Sep 25, 2003 3:16 pm

I agree that it will be interesting. With tropical activity possibly about to heat up one more time, it will also be interesting to see if this activity alters the initial ideas pertaining to the hurricane analogs.

In a week or two, I believe it will be possible to offer a more detailed discussion on this topic, as the analogs could largely be locked into place.

A more detailed discussion of the NAO and its impacts could be in the offing a few weeks down the road, as well. For now, I'll note that a negative NAO appears to be more important both in the fall-early winter and again late winter-spring when it comes to snowy months (defined by 10" or more in CPK from 1869-present).
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Re: 2003 Hurricane Season and Upcoming Winter

#27 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Sep 28, 2003 2:47 pm

For those who might be interested as to whether Hurricane Juan (whether it makes landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane or diminishes to a tropical storm prior to landfall--the latter scenario is the less likely one) significantly alters the preliminary assessment of the hurricane analogs with respect to the coming winter, it does not.

In fact, it actually solidifies the very preliminary look. Still, until the beginning to middle of next month, there could still be changes that do affect the preliminary assessment.

For now, just as a reminder of the snowy winter many of us in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. enjoyed in 2002-03, here's a photo of the President's Day snowstorm in Baltimore, MD:

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/021603-3.jpg">

Enjoy.
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