2003 Hurricane Season and Upcoming Winter

[donsutherland1]

As one member at another group wanted to look farther ahead into the coming winter and inquired about hurricane analogs, I'll briefly make a few comments on this.

Hurricane analogs can offer some guidance for the forthcoming winter. Rather than any specific storm having a seasonal impact, the overall pattern of activity may well have an impact based largely on its effects on water temperature profiles.

Currently, the 2003 hurricane season is not yet over, so the following comments may be subject to change.

Based on a combination of factors including tropical storm/hurricane landfalls and tropical storm/hurricane intensities, there appears to be a good chance that southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States will see above normal snowfall for Winter 2003-04. Northern New England is amore challenging proposition.

As an example, of the analog winters, above normal snowfall ocurred in the following cities:

Boston: 4/11 winters
New York City: 8/12 winters (average: 32.0" + possible accumulating snow in November and perhaps an inch or more)
Washington, DC: 7/11 winters

Taking into consideration the ENSO phase (assuming a neutral winter), all three cities would have enhanced odds of seeing above normal snowfall. Overall, at this point in time, Southern New England and the Middle Atlantic region will have the highest chance of seeing above normal snowfall.

Finally, last year's hurricane analogs also suggested above normal snowfall for Winter 2002-03. For what it's worth, even as the Eastern U.S. suffered through a seeming snow drought (not really that severe given a steady diet of clippers) and a sense of hopelessness seemed to be bubbling beneath the surface of a number of posted messages, the snows resumed in February and the entire area wound up with prodigious amounts.

Needless to say, more is involved than merely hurricane analogs. Of course, a better picture from the hurricane analogs will be available perhaps by the beginning or middle of October. At that time, the analogs could probably be locked into place. For now, things could still change.

[Guest]

Intresting Don.....................I really didnt use as much analog with the tropics when i did my FIRST winter outlook which is at the top of this forum here.........................However looking back one can say that the number of tropical systems making landfall and where they do can alter the winter pattern slightly as i have seen it suggested that Lily played a role in last winters setup????......................Not sure eactly how much yet myself.....................I myself am not sure yet as too how much influence our tropical season has on the up comming winter patterns.................Im still researching this.................The enso however does have a bigger impact on this as does other things like sun activity (HM knows more about this then anyone it seems).......Then you have to account for the NAO and such and more recently the amount of fresh water off the eastern seaboard which is more proned to temp fluxes..................Lastly i take into account the amount of snowcover building up north in Canada and up towards the artic regions....................Kinda what you see above is part of what i took into account when i did my early winter outlook about a month ago...................A couple of other things when into it also.....................Yea i will tweak it some come October which now everyone will know why (tropical season factor) well part of it anyways..........LOL............Trying not to give out my secrets........................As of right now it seems most of us agree that the eastern areas of the US are in for another possibly snowy winter especially from the plains east.....................Im still out a little as far as the Rockies and farther west will have.............Even the SE i have a couple of questions that need a answer?... Minor but still wanna have them answered mainly for precip................Hopefully i should have those answers in a couple of weeks!........................

So what are your thoughts on other parts of the country Don for the up comming winter????

[JCT777]

Don - good post. I do hope this winter is above average in snow. It's been a while since I have seen back-to-back snowy winters. Looking forward to it!

[donsutherland1]

JCT777,

You are right that it has been some time since there have been consecutive snowy winters in parts of the Eastern U.S. Using Central Park as an example, there have been consecutive winters with 30" or more snowfall only once since 1950. Since regular recordkeeping began in 1869 (and its this long record that is what makes CPK a good example) there have been 11 such instances.

Since 1869, roughly 3/8 of the time, a 30" season was followed by another such season. Since 1950, just 1 of 10 30" seasons were followed by another one.

[donsutherland1]

I agree that ENSO, NAO, solar activity, etc., offer stronger guidance for winter forecasting. I consider the buildup of early-season snowcover to be especially useful with regard to the NE U.S. and it offered a strong hint of the nature of Winter 2002-03. Overall, I see tropical activity as one potential source of guidance, though sometimes the "signal" is ambiguous.

Examples:
1994 (for '94-'95): Below normal snowfall
1995 (for '95-'96): Above normal snowfall
1996 (for '96-'97): Below normal snowfall
1997 (for '97-'98): Below normal snowfall
1998 (for '98-'99): Above normal snowfall: Incorrect
1999 (for '99-'00): Above normal snowfall: Incorrect
2000 (for '00-'01): Above normal snowfall
2001 (for '01-'02): Ambiguous
2002 (for '02-'03): Above normal snowfall

Do you have a URL for your winter forecast; I seem not to be able to find it and would be interested in reading it?

A quick sketch of what I'm currently looking at, though this is not cast in stone at this time. I'm increasingly confident that the ENSO will be neutral to at most, a weak La Nina, during the winter.

Temperatures:

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region: Normal to somewhat below normal readings

Northern Plains/Great Lakes: Below normal readings, maybe the largest departures from normal

Southeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal

Precipitation:

Mid-Atlantic Region to Southern New England: Somewhat above normal

Pacific Northwest: Below normal

Southwest: Near normal to below normal

Northern Plains/Great Lakes: Near normal

[JCT777]

Don - I too believe that my area (northern mid-Atlantic) will be slightly colder than normal overall, with a continuation of above normal precipitation. I think the winter will start out cold, but finish a little warmer than normal.

King of Weather's winter outlook is at the following link:

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... utlook.htm

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the URL.

It's an interesting forecast and I'm certainly in much agreement with a lot of it, particularly the focus of the below normal temperatures in the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and the focus of the best chance for above normal snowfall (Southern New England, Mid-Atlantic region).

[GAStorm]

Hey Don,

I was wondering what your thoughts were on the southeast having above average snowfall? I'm not sure if king of weather will change that, but this area has not seen a significant winter storm in several years. It's seems like we are the toughest area to predict! Any ideas on what may happen?

[wow]

I think it's too early to tell exactly what regions will see above or below norm temps and snowfall. Also, I really hope the CPC doesn't start using that that stupid excuse when they forecast above norm temps for the southeast: "based on TRENDS." They use that word about a hundred times in their long term discussions!

Anyways, October is when many of the preliminary outlooks for winter will start rolling out. We'll know more in the weeks to come!

P.S. -- I think your period key is sticking, king of weather

[GAStorm]

I think it's too early to tell exactly what regions will see above or below norm temps and snowfall. Also, I really hope the CPC doesn't start using that that stupid excuse when they forecast above norm temps for the southeast: "based on TRENDS." They use that word about a hundred times in their long term discussions!

Last year the CPC predicted that the northeast would see above normal temps. I knew that one wouldn't hold true!!

[Stephanie]

Very interesting Don. I can see how tropical activity would help to suggest a trend for the winter.

Like JCT said, it would be unusual for us to have consecutive snowy winters, but both summers were active tropically, though one was dry and one was wet.

[donsutherland1]

GAStorm,

At this time, I'm really not sure about the potential for above normal snowfall across the Southeast. I do believe that there will perhaps be a significant arctic outbreak.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

You are right that the prospect of consecutive unusually snowy winters has been rare in recent years.

Still, there may be a longer-term trend under way that suggests winters are again becoming snowier, though extremely low snowfall in the late 1990s (10.0" '96-'97; 5.5" '97-'98; 12.7" '98-'99; 16.3" '99-'00) and early 2000s (3.5" '01-'02) may have masked that trend. Needless to say, there was a longer snow drought from 1949-50 through 1954-55 where less than 20" fell in each of the six winters):

Seasons with 30" or more snowfall in NYC:

1870s: 6
1880s: 7
1890s: 5
1900s: 5
1910s: 5
1920s: 2
1930s: 4
1940s: 5
1950s: 3
1960s: 4
1970s: 1
1980s: 0
1990s: 2
2000s: 2*

[Stephanie]

I know we're talking 30" or more, but it looks like the snow drought occurred more during the 1970's and 1980's, even though we had the blizzards of 1978 and 1983.

[donsutherland1]

You are correct that the height of the "snow drought" occurred during the 1970s and 1980s. My point was that the lack of snowfall at the end of the 1990s may have obscured a rise in annual snowfall that had begun.

Overall, average snowfall for each decade beginning with the 1870s follows:

1870s: 31.8"
1880s: 32.8"
1890s: 34.7"
1900s: 30.2"
1910s: 32.7"
1920s: 26.1" (first decade since regular recordkeeping with less than 30")
1930s: 25.7"
1940s" 31.6"
1950s: 22.6"
1960s: 30.6"
1970s: 21.3"
1980s: 19.7"
1990s: 24.7"
2000s: 29.3" (through 2002-03)

[Stormsfury]

The biggest problem in always trying to prog the Southeast's potential for a significant or an above normal snowfall is the fact that ...

1) Cold air has to come into place
2) Moisture also has to come into place.

The Southeast region is so difficult to prog because it's like watching a CAT 4 or CAT 5 storm in the Atlantic. The conditions to produce a decent snowstorm in the Southeast have to be just about ideal ...

Examples ...

It could be a cold winter in the Southeast (like December 2000) which was the coldest December of record in CHS. However, the timing of the moisture didn't coincide with the arctic cold outbreak. Most of the rain fell in a scenario which a warm front came through and produced severe weather and temperatures in the low 70's during the late night and early morning hours, before exiting and the frigid weather returned. December 2000 was a very dry month.

It could be a wet winter in the Southeast. 1998 ... tremendous influx of moisture, however, significant cold air continually lacked as the subtropical jet dominated during the El Nino winter of 1998. January-February were very warm and wet months.

December 1989 - last major snowstorm for Coastal Carolinas including Coastal GA, and NE Florida. After a very cold December and the timing of moisture return helped set up the last major Coastal Southeast Snowstorm. The rest of the winter January - March 1990 was exceptionally warm ...

Most of the snow events in the CHS area happen to come where cold and moisture just happen to time just right ... with most times having the month end up being above average temperature wise for that month. Strange quirk.

SF

[jpp5862]

Does anyone see any correlation between the "big" hurricane years of 1992 (Andrew) and 1995 (Opal) when hard winter storms hit the SE the following winter? I am just an amateur at this, but living in the SE, I remember both winters having major storms the winters after these large hurricanes stuck.

[donsutherland1]

JPP5862,

1992 (Winter 1992-93) and 1995 (Winter 1995-96) were very different years in terms of hurricanes. First, 1995 had 19 named storms vs. 6 (7 if one wants to count an unnamed subtropical storm) for 1992. Second, 1995 saw tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean,and Gulf of Mexico. 1992 saw no Gulf of Mexico activity except from Andrew, which crossed the Florida Peninsula into the GOM. Third, 1995 moved from a neutral to weak La Nina ENSO phase. 1992 saw an El Nino.

[GAStorm]

The biggest problem in always trying to prog the Southeast's potential for a significant or an above normal snowfall is the fact that ...

1) Cold air has to come into place
2) Moisture also has to come into place.

The Southeast region is so difficult to prog because it's like watching a CAT 4 or CAT 5 storm in the Atlantic. The conditions to produce a decent snowstorm in the Southeast have to be just about ideal ...

Examples ...

It could be a cold winter in the Southeast (like December 2000) which was the coldest December of record in CHS. However, the timing of the moisture didn't coincide with the arctic cold outbreak. Most of the rain fell in a scenario which a warm front came through and produced severe weather and temperatures in the low 70's during the late night and early morning hours, before exiting and the frigid weather returned. December 2000 was a very dry month.

It could be a wet winter in the Southeast. 1998 ... tremendous influx of moisture, however, significant cold air continually lacked as the subtropical jet dominated during the El Nino winter of 1998. January-February were very warm and wet months.

December 1989 - last major snowstorm for Coastal Carolinas including Coastal GA, and NE Florida. After a very cold December and the timing of moisture return helped set up the last major Coastal Southeast Snowstorm. The rest of the winter January - March 1990 was exceptionally warm ...

Most of the snow events in the CHS area happen to come where cold and moisture just happen to time just right ... with most times having the month end up being above average temperature wise for that month. Strange quirk.

SF

Good analysis SF! One sad fact to think of for north GA is the fact that we have not had snow on both the ground and roadways for more than a day since '95. Also, that same year it was so cold that the temp didn't get out of the teens during the day! :o It sure would be nice to have temps below freezing and a good snowfall for a change!!

[Stormsfury]

Does anyone see any correlation between the "big" hurricane years of 1992 (Andrew) and 1995 (Opal) when hard winter storms hit the SE the following winter? I am just an amateur at this, but living in the SE, I remember both winters having major storms the winters after these large hurricanes stuck.

Scientific or not sceintific, there DOES seem to be a correlation to snowstorms and hurricanes togetherness relationship ... As you already pointed out above ...

Take Hurricane Hugo ... struck Charleston, SC on September 21st-22nd, 1989 (the first day of fall) ... The Christmas Snowstorm strikes the Coastal Carolinas, Georgia, and NE Florida from December 22nd-24th, 1989 (3 months later of the first day of winter) ...

This COULD be a subject of hurricanes/snowstorms correlation research and if there's any validity of a real pattern here. The results, IMO, would probably be quite interestng.

SF