Winter Pattern setting up?

[azsnowman]

Could this be a sign of things to come? Starting tomorrow night into the weekend, a strong EPAC trough is forecast to hit Az with ANOTHER one right on it's tail..........let's HOPE this pattern continues ALL winter long

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
RECORD WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE STATE. EXPECT SOME COOLING ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WX OVER
AZ TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN. THIS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WEAKEN ON WED WITH 850-500 MB THICKNESSES DECREASING ENOUGH TO
LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES...AND NO LONGER NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO THU...AN EPAC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
STATE BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE BY THU WITH PCPN. HAVE SCHC/CHC SHOWERS IN
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THU BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES...AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRI WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUING
INTO FRI.

.EXTENDED...SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST ON SAT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WX AND DECREASED CHANCES OF PCPN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS AZ...HOWEVER...FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY TUE...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER EPAC DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
AZ WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.



Dennis

[vbhoutex]

I don't know about your area Dennis, but it sure looks like we are starting to set it up for my area. We just had a front come through Sunday and have another one on the way. Looks like our tropical season here may be over, but I never say never. It is currently 55ºf here in Houston, about 10º below normal for this time of year. Even though I haven't gotten a good look at the little critter and wolly worms yet, I have noticed the leaves are starting to come off the trees about a month or more early and we definitely have not had a drought here this year! Left the window open yesterday since we only made 83ºf for a high.(We only have one window with a screen on it right now.LOL!!!) HMMMM??? Is KOW right? Snow for Houston????

[JCT777]

Sounds great for you, Dennis. I have some nice cool air in my area, with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. I will probably get my first frost by Friday morning.

[azsnowman]

One more day of record heat??? "AUUUUUGH!" I can't take it anymore "LOL!" BUT.........fear not snowman, here comes the cooler temps along with rain!

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST WED OCT 01 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WHEN
THE STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER IN THE DAY AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER DEVELOPING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED LOW END
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

EPAC STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
NEGATIVE TILT WAVE...THEN SLOWLY CLOSES OFF DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STRONG DIVQ FORCING FIELD MOVES
ACROSS AZ DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE...
ALONG WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF NRN AZ. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MOST
OF THE CWFA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE
STATE LATE ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

.EXTENDED...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS NRN
AZ...ESPECIALLY THE NRN BORDER REGIONS...TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING
THE WEEKEND AND REACH CLIMO LEVELS BY MONDAY.


Dennis