ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One difference is that Higos could help more, as Faxai was a category 1 whilst this was a category 4!

[cycloneye]

The Febuary update by ECMWF has a El Nino comming by summer but this model has been thru a warm bias so we will see what occurs in the next few months.

[euro6208]

All but one model forecast nino (+0.5). Look at EURO

[cycloneye]

For two weeks in a row the weekly CPC update at Nino 3.4 stays at +0.5C but they are watching that growing warm pool in the WestCentral Pacific. ONI remains at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

PDO was down slightly from +2.51 in December to +2.45 in January but still is way positive.

http://margaret.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[wxman57]

With such a positive PDO and warming Tropical Pacific, I think we're well on our way to an official El Nino declaration once the 3-month averages maintain +.5C or more for 5 consecutive cycles in April. Just 2 more to go after N-D-J averaged +.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[cycloneye]

The Mid Febuary plume of ENSO models have as consensus weak El Nino for Spring and most of the Summer.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... iri_update

[cycloneye]

Interesting CPC blog that discuss about the model predictions of ENSO. Here is an excerpt of discussion on the last paragraph.

At the beginning of 2014, the possibility of a major El Niño was just that: one among many possible outcomes. In other words, while forecasters couldn’t rule out an event of that size early on, a strong El Niño was never the most likely outcome and, furthermore, there was always the chance of no El Niño at all. ENSO prediction comes with a large range of outcomes (5), and forecasters try to express this uncertainty with our probabilities (what is the % chance of El Niño?) and more qualitatively in our regular monthly discussions. We hope you click here, here, here, and here for more on how to interpret the models and probabilistic forecasts and, of course, stay tuned to updates on our ENSO blog!

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... o-big-bust

[NDG]

All but one model forecast nino (+0.5). Look at EURO

What's new from the Euro, it is always warm biased with ENSO this time of the year, but I guess one of these years is going to be right

[Dean_175]

30 day SOI is now up to -2.0. The 30 day average has risen rapidly from last week since we are gaining large positive values and losing large negatives in the daily contributions to the 30 day average. Although most days in February so far have made at least slightly negative contributions to the monthly SOI index- February could very well turn out to slightly positive. There have only been two days during February so far where the daily contribution was lower than -10, and no days with a very large negative contribution.

[Kingarabian]

Story of this Nino so far. We can never have more than 2 variables clicking and in agreement.

[Yellow Evan]

30 day SOI is now up to -2.0. The 30 day average has risen rapidly from last week since we are gaining large positive values and losing large negatives in the daily contributions to the 30 day average. Although most days in February so far have made at least slightly negative contributions to the monthly SOI index- February could very well turn out to slightly positive. There have only been two days during February so far where the daily contribution was lower than -10, and no days with a very large negative contribution.

MJO being there and Lam/Marcia may have contributed. I would not worry too much about it.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new in the weekly CPC update of 2/23/15 as for a third week in a row Nino 3.4 stays at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

We are almost there, February will have an ONI over 0.5C with one week to go. If March remains above 0.5C then we will have the 5 trimonthly which is the official definition. If that does occur then SON would be when the Nino officially began or back in September.

[Ptarmigan]

We are almost there, February will have an ONI over 0.5C with one week to go. If March remains above 0.5C then we will have the 5 trimonthly which is the official definition. If that does occur then SON would be when the Nino officially began or back in September.

A multi year El Nino is very rare. Even rarer than a strong El Nino.

[Dean_175]

We are almost there, February will have an ONI over 0.5C with one week to go. If March remains above 0.5C then we will have the 5 trimonthly which is the official definition. If that does occur then SON would be when the Nino officially began or back in September.

A multi year El Nino is very rare. Even rarer than a strong El Nino.

Hmm. I think you misread that - he never mentioned a multi-year nino. Ninos typically last into the next calendar year; having an el nino beginning in september and lasting till spring is normal.

But you are right, a multi-year el nino is very rare. I don't quite understand why a few ninos , like 1986-88 do not decay in the spring as other ninos do. Does anyone else have any insight as to how this occurred in the 1986-1988 el nino?

It may make more sense for this "nino" to last more than one year, because this nino(if it becomes official) never really "got going"- the atmospheric component was weak to nonexistent along the equator- so there would have been less of the type of negative feedback that usually ends el nino. I don't know of any other event that was declared officially after the 5 trimonthlies, without el nino conditions ever being declared operationally(due to lack of the "required" atmospheric response). So maybe this year won't behave like other ninos. I realize that models don't have the best accuracy at this time of year, but many of the models are actually showing a multi-year event to be a good possibility. Im not saying that I am expecting it to occur- I am just saying that it is one of the possibilities given the circumstances of this "el nino".

[Ptarmigan]

We are almost there, February will have an ONI over 0.5C with one week to go. If March remains above 0.5C then we will have the 5 trimonthly which is the official definition. If that does occur then SON would be when the Nino officially began or back in September.

A multi year El Nino is very rare. Even rarer than a strong El Nino.

Hmm. I think you misread that - he never mentioned a multi-year nino. Ninos typically last into the next calendar year; having an el nino beginning in september and lasting till spring is normal.

But you are right, a multi-year el nino is very rare. I don't quite understand why a few ninos , like 1986-88 do not decay in the spring as other ninos do. Does anyone else have any insight as to how this occurred in the 1986-1988 el nino?

It may make more sense for this "nino" to last more than one year, because this nino(if it becomes official) never really "got going"- the atmospheric component was weak to nonexistent along the equator- so there would have been less of the type of negative feedback that usually ends el nino. I don't know of any other event that was declared officially after the 5 trimonthlies, without el nino conditions ever being declared operationally(due to lack of the "required" atmospheric response). So maybe this year won't behave like other ninos. I realize that models don't have the best accuracy at this time of year, but many of the models are actually showing a multi-year event to be a good possibility. Im not saying that I am expecting it to occur- I am just saying that it is one of the possibilities given the circumstances of this "el nino".

I did misread it.

The other multi-year El Nino was from 1976 to 1978. It was cold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Data from CPC; clearly shows El Niño conditions for past 5 months at least (over 20 weeks)

I am 99.9% sure and confident that we will have at least a weak El Niño in the next 3 months or 12 weeks.


NINO 1+2 NINO 3 NINO 3.4 NIN0 4 N. ATL S. ATL TROPICS
MONTH 0-10S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-20N 0-20S 10N-10S
90W-80W 150W-90W 170W-120W 160E-150W 60W-30W 30W-10E 0W-360W
JAN 15 -0.4 24.1 0.4 26.0 0.5 27.1 0.9 29.2 0.1 26.1 0.1 25.7 0.2 27.9
DEC 14 0.1 22.9 0.8 25.9 0.8 27.4 0.9 29.4 0.0 26.8 -0.4 24.4 0.3 28.0
NOV 14 0.7 22.3 0.9 25.9 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.1 27.7 -0.5 23.5 0.3 28.0
OCT 14 0.8 21.5 0.7 25.6 0.5 27.2 0.6 29.3 0.3 28.4 -0.1 23.3 0.3 27.8
SEP 14 1.0 21.3 0.5 25.3 0.5 27.2 0.7 29.3 0.1 28.2 -0.1 23.0 0.3 27.5

[Hurricaneman]

One thing I've noticed is that on Levi Cowans site looking at the ENSO regions they are as follows

Nino 1\2 is at -.18
Nino 3 is at .25
Nino 4 is at near 1.4
And the Nino 3\4 is at near .9

so based on this its looking like possibly a Madoki El Nino, but this could with that subsurface easily transition into a more traditional El Nino

PS: if im going for the next update I could see the CPC going with a .7 for the ENSO

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Week to week there has been considerable warming of the ENSO regions out west 4 and 3.4. Below the surface is a vast warm pool that has been expanding. Any hints of a La Nina is nowhere to be seen. Looks like 2015 will likely hover between Nino and neutral looking at probabilities. Looks like we will get the ONI call for weak El Nino that began in the fall with the latest warming.





Significant WWB coming towards the dateline