C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Portastorm]

Don't know if y'all saw what's cooking over in the Talking Tropics forum ... but there is some mention of a possible tropical depression forming in the northern Gulf in the next few days and moving into Texas this weekend.

That is the LAST thing we need! Oye-vay!

Here is what the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO said this morning in their discussion:

AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH THE 00Z AND
06Z NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS40 SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS OUR FORECAST HAS SOUTH TEXAS IN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL FEATURE OVER
OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE`RE NOT
FORECASTING THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...BUT WANT TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEEKEND RAIN EVENT.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Don't know if y'all saw what's cooking over in the Talking Tropics forum ... but there is some mention of a possible tropical depression forming in the northern Gulf in the next few days and moving into Texas this weekend.

That is the LAST thing we need! Oye-vay!

Here is what the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO said this morning in their discussion:

AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH THE 00Z AND
06Z NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS40 SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN...
BUT WITH THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS OUR FORECAST HAS SOUTH TEXAS IN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL FEATURE OVER
OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE`RE NOT
FORECASTING THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...BUT WANT TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEEKEND RAIN EVENT.

Oh geeze! I'm going to trade my truck in for a canoe. This is getting, no it's already ridiclous!!

[Shoshana]

Raining pumas and poodles here at the house - I can barely see the back fence from the patio and it's about 200 feet ...

A little thunder too.

I need to buy a rain gauge!

[Kelarie]

Ummm, so does anyone see any rain on the horizon?? It is way too hot and I am missing the rain cooled air and the flash flooding. Hurricane? Cold Front?

I can't wait until it is again....

[Portastorm]

Guess this shouldn't surprise any of us, given the stagnant atmosphere as of late:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CENTRAL TEXAS CLEAN AIR FORCE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
147 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...OZONE ACTION DAY NOTICE...

THE CENTRAL TEXAS CLEAN AIR FORCE HAS DECLARED AN OZONE ACTION DAY
ACROSS THE AUSTIN AREA FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 12, 2007.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING HIGH
LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION ON SUNDAY AUGUST 12, 2007.

VOLUNTARY ACTION IS NEEDED TO HELP REDUCE AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS AND
TO HELP PREVENT OZONE FORMATION.

TO REDUCE OZONE POLLUTION...THE CLEAN AIR FORCE URGES AREA RESIDENTS
TO REDUCE VEHICLE TRIPS...CARPOOL...RIDE THE BUS AND AVOID RUNNING
GASOLINE ENGINES. OTHER RECOMMENDED ACTIONS INCLUDE WAITING UNTIL
AFTER 6 PM TO BUY GAS...MOW LAWNS OR RUN ERRANDS.

IF REQUIRED...THE NEXT OZONE ACTION DAY NOTICE WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 12, 2007.

[Portastorm]

The QPF amounts for our part of Texas over the next 5 days are of great concern. With are lakes and rivers at capacity ... a tropical system like Erin really has me concerned. The flooding could get quite bad around here!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The QPF amounts for our part of Texas over the next 5 days are of great concern. With are lakes and rivers at capacity ... a tropical system like Erin really has me concerned. The flooding could get quite bad around here!

Yep. I am going to go buy a Kayak.

Just when I thought we were going into a typical summertime dry period, this happens.

[Portastorm]

The QPF amounts for our part of Texas over the next 5 days are of great concern. With are lakes and rivers at capacity ... a tropical system like Erin really has me concerned. The flooding could get quite bad around here!

Yep. I am going to go buy a Kayak.

Just when I thought we were going into a typical summertime dry period, this happens.

CC, I'm thinking you're really going to get a soaking down there. Stay safe pal.

[Kelarie]

Portastorm, wanna start building an ark?? We might need something to stay afloat in the coming days.

This has been a truly crazy summer for weather, huh??

[Portastorm]

Very serious flooding situation in San Antonio right now!

[Portastorm]

Looks like we may be entering another "wet pattern." Here is a snippet from the Saturday morning forecast discussion from AUS/SAT NWSFO:

AN UPPER LOW MAKING SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS CAN BE SEEN IN
THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
WILL CONTINUE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60H...EVENTUALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING HIGHER
PWATS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWAT FORECAST OF 2-2.4
INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE 00Z GFS40.

[Portastorm]

We had a nice little MCS roll through Austin last night, dropping about an inch of rain and providing gusty winds of 30-40 mph. Almost looked like a mini tropical storm outside!

Everyone be safe this weekend and watch the skies, especially considering the scattered storms forecast all weekend!

[Shoshana]

Looks like South Central Texas might get a whole bunch of rain courtesy of TS Henriette...

from wunderground.com

Statement as of 3:46 PM CDT on September 02, 2007


... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Texas...
including the following areas... Bandera... Bastrop... blanco...
Burnet... Caldwell... Comal... Edwards... Fayette... Gillespie...
Gonzales... Guadalupe... Hays... Kendall... Kerr... Lavaca... Lee...
Llano... real... Travis... Val Verde and Williamson.

* From Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening

* showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy downpours will
move up from the south Monday afternoon and continue off and on
through at least Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated totals in excess of five inches can be
expected.

A Flash Flood Watch means flash flooding is possible in or near
the watch area. If you are in the watch area... plan now for what
you will do if flash flooding develops. Stay informed and be
ready to act if you see flooding or if a Flash Flood Warning is
issued.

And from NWS Austin/San Antonio

Previous discussion... /issued 325 PM CDT sun Sep 2 2007/


Discussion...
the rain is upon US...with an increase in coverage and intensity
forecast Monday...then continuing into Tuesday or Wednesday. Precipitable waters
at 12z across our area were generally unchanged from 24h ago and
still above normal. However...precipitable waters along the south Texas coast had
increased...up to 2.2 inches at kcrp and 2.3 inches at kbro. Deep
tropical moisture continues to surge north from the far western
Gulf and an upper level (150-300mb) moisture tap to Tropical Storm
Henriette in the far eastern Pacific can be seen developing in the
latest water vapor satellite imagery. 12z gfs40 data shows this
tap developing and continuing into Tuesday. The 12z gfs40 data
also shows divergence in the upper levels of the atmosphere over
our area during the same time period. Precipitable waters are forecast to
increase over our County warning forecast area to 2-2.25 inches by late Monday...which is
close to two Standard deviations above normal for early September.
The main player here...an inverted trough...which has actually a
closed low in the upper levels of the atmosphere...is obvious in
the latest WV imagery moving slowly west-northwest. It is this movement which
is causing tropical moisture to surge north into south Texas. Add
all that up with a high pop forecast and saturated or semi-
saturated soils thanks to rains over the past few days (more like
the entire year except for february)...and a Flash Flood Watch is
warranted. Our preliminary numbers and segmented watch information is
below.


The inverted trough is forecast to get shoved east in the
intruding westerlies on Wednesday...then out of Texas on Thursday. A
ridge of high pressure will build over our area beginning Thursday
night...with near normal temperatures and probability of precipitation forecast for Friday
through next weekend as the ridge remains over south central
Texas. The wild-card in our extended forecast is major Hurricane
Felix...which is forecast to be over the Bay of Campeche at 120h.
More than likely...this hurricane will make a 2nd landfall
somewhere near Tampico, Mexico...but moisture associated with
Felix could move north into our area and put a Dent in our
forecast for next weekend.


&&

[Kelarie]

Well I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I did enjoy the 3 weeks of summer we had. Our wet spring lasted 4 months, now fall is upon us. Don't know about the rest of ya, but have ya noticed the leaves are already turning colours??

As to the run, love it. Bring it on, get the rivers, lakes, etc up. Recharge aquifers. All good in the environmental water neighborhood.

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY AND LATE THIS WEEK...

FORECASTS SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE COOL FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

[Portastorm]

It's raining, it's pouring ...

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
3 products issued by NWS for: Austin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC453-111415-
/X.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0005.070911T1212Z-070911T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
712 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 712 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AUSTIN AREA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
TO 15 MPH. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
COULD MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS DURING THE RUSH HOUR.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BERGSTROM...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ONION CREEK AND MUSTANG RIDGE.

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

[Kelarie]

Woo Hoo - the first cold front of the season is coming in this weekend!!! Break out the Parka's and light the fires. Temps are gonna be in the low 80's. Brrrrr...

[Portastorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE READINGS ABRUPTLY ADJUST TO THE
CALENDAR FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. (rest deleted)

*****************
Well, I've heard this before but with GFS and ECMWF support, maybe it'll happen!

[Portastorm]

Well, Fall is indeed finally here! 55 and light rain here this morning. Feels wonderful!

Edit update: As of 8:45 am, the temp is down to 51 degrees in north Austin ... and still dropping.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ha, ha. Portastorm has a new avatar!!

Sorry, like a major snowstorm in Austin, their is always next year.

As I speak , the big front, is sweeping thru Corpus! Dark skies and all of that good stuff.

Good Bye, summer!! Don't comeback till at least April!