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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS
AMZ700-181445-
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS THURSDAY EVENING...
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGIONAL WATERS.
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...
.REST OF TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...EAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TUESDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS
AMZ700-181445-
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS THURSDAY EVENING...
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGIONAL WATERS.
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1018 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...
.REST OF TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...EAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TUESDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
cycloneye wrote:Hey guys in the Leewards,stay safe and dry.Keep us informed of any observations from the islands. I will do the same when it gets here.
Thanks Luis, we sincerely appreciate your wink

Gustywind

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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
From a friend of Antigua just north of Guadeloupe: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
flare up
By eli fuller <elifuller at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 02:51:11 +0000
Wow! Satellite and radar show a crazy looking Tropical wave about to move into the chain. I'm house sitting tonight on d north side and didn't do anything extra on the boats. Hope the squalls don't rattle my chain tonight too much.
all normal at this hour tho.
flare up
By eli fuller <elifuller at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 02:51:11 +0000
Wow! Satellite and radar show a crazy looking Tropical wave about to move into the chain. I'm house sitting tonight on d north side and didn't do anything extra on the boats. Hope the squalls don't rattle my chain tonight too much.
all normal at this hour tho.
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- Tropical Storm
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- Location: NorthWest Trinidad, SE Caribbean
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
cycloneye wrote:Hey guys in the Leewards,stay safe and dry.Keep us informed of any observations from the islands. I will do the same when it gets here.
Best wishes from me too.
Take care all my friends - Gustywind, Ouragan, MsBee, Cycloneye.
We look forward to hearing from you, as possible.
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
FireBird wrote:cycloneye wrote:Hey guys in the Leewards,stay safe and dry.Keep us informed of any observations from the islands. I will do the same when it gets here.
Best wishes from me too.
Take care all my friends - Gustywind, Ouragan, MsBee, Cycloneye.
We look forward to hearing from you, as possible.

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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather this weekend
msbee wrote:Macrocane
Is Las pilas in the mountains? The temperature is nice and cool there.
Yes it is in the mountains, near the border with Honduras, that region has a very nice climate though it gets very chilly in the winter months

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145285
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT
SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS THURSDAY EVENING...
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
WEATHER LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -83C. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE LIKELIHOOD IS
FOR A CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION TO SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED ONCE THE SURFACE LOW/WAVE AXIS GET CLOSE TO/PASS BY THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SIX
MORE HOURS AND ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE...AS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER TNCM
AND TKPK AND SPREADING ACROSS TIST...TISJ AND TISX...AND
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO BY ABOUT 18/10Z.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010
.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT
SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS THURSDAY EVENING...
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
WEATHER LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -83C. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE LIKELIHOOD IS
FOR A CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION TO SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED ONCE THE SURFACE LOW/WAVE AXIS GET CLOSE TO/PASS BY THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SIX
MORE HOURS AND ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE...AS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER TNCM
AND TKPK AND SPREADING ACROSS TIST...TISJ AND TISX...AND
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO BY ABOUT 18/10Z.
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
From a correspondant of Stormcarib in Grenada...
92L at 01:00 18/06/2010
By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 00:58:03 -0400
92L does not appear to have any circulation. It's path seems to have gropped a bit and now looks as if it will come though the islands about Dominica and Martinique. The last NHC report says it has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. See what it is like in the morning.
92L at 01:00 18/06/2010
By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 00:58:03 -0400
92L does not appear to have any circulation. It's path seems to have gropped a bit and now looks as if it will come though the islands about Dominica and Martinique. The last NHC report says it has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. See what it is like in the morning.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145285
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
Good morning. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for this weekend. Stay safe and dry and report the observations from the islands if you can.I say if you can because the power goes or the internet goes in areas and then you can't do anything.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.100618T2000Z-100620T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
449 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...
VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
* RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REMAIN
ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.100618T2000Z-100620T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
449 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...
VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
* RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REMAIN
ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145285
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010
.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW LOCATED JUST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...MAINLY OVER WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON FRONT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY
LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF
LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
NOCTURNAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM COULD INCREASE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 18/10Z THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.
MEANWHILE...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TIST...AND TISX
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJPS IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...THE BEFORE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ACTIVE
AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOW VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS CONDITIONS
TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATOR SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 80 70 60
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 80 70 70
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L will bring squally weather to NE Carib
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings squally weather to NE Carib
CROWNWEATHER Forecast
Issued: Friday, June 18, 2010 625 am EDT/525 am CDT
For Maps, Images and Graphics On Invest 92-L, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.
Discussion
Invest 92-L Will Track Across The Lesser Antilles Today and **May Develop** Later On Down The Road: After being deactivated and pretty much written off yesterday, Invest 92-L came roaring back yesterday afternoon and last night and is currently a strong tropical wave that will track across the Lesser Antilles today. The overall setup this morning is as follows: An upper level low pressure system that was located to the northwest of 92-L is now tracking slowly northward. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure is developing over the southeastern Caribbean. This high pressure system is forecast to strengthen and build across much of the eastern Caribbean this weekend. This setup may allow Invest 92-L to get into a more favorable environment later this weekend and especially next week. Over the past hour or so, satellite imagery indicated that the convection had waned and become more ragged which indicates that the destructive shear is close by just to the north.
Thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas are likely today from the islands of St. Vincent northward through St. Martin and Anguilla. These thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas will spread into the Virgin Islands later today and then Puerto Rico tonight and continue through Saturday. After that, heavy rainfall with the risk for flash flooding can be expected across Hispaniola this weekend.
Now, the big question is will Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm?? Even though Invest 92-L is producing strong convection this morning, I think wind shear will limit development into a tropical cyclone in the short term. In the longer term, however, many of the model guidance members are forecasting that this system will find much better environmental conditions by about the middle part of next week as it potentially nears the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. One thing to keep in mind is that when tropical systems bust through an area of very high shear, they can find themselves in pretty favorable environmental conditions, so it is quite possible that development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm may happen next week in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
A quick rundown of the particular model guidance members show that the GFDL model forecasts it to track north of Hispaniola and into the northern Bahamas, which seems too far north of a track. The Canadian model forecasts that it will track into the western Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF model forecasts that it will track to near south Florida and the northern Florida Keys in 5 days. The GFS model forecasts that 92-L will track into and through the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. The European model forecasts that 92-L will eventually combine with energy from the ITCZ and another tropical wave to its east and develop near the Yucatan Peninsula in about 9 or 10 days. As for intensity, the HWRF, GFDL and SHIPS intensity guidance all forecast that 92-L will intensify into a low end tropical storm.
My take is that the best shot for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm will be from Monday and beyond, once Invest 92-L reaches the northwest Caribbean or the Florida Straits and the environmental conditions become much more favorable. With this system being such a fighter in the face of strong shear, I suspect that this will be a system to really keep a close eye on over the next several days.
I will be posting updates on Invest 92-L throughout the weekend, so keep checking back for the latest.
UK Met Office Forecasting An Extremely Busy Hurricane Season: There is another reliable meteorological agency that is forecasting an extremely busy hurricane season. The Met Office over in the United Kingdom is forecasting 20 tropical storms between July and November with a Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 204.
If this verifies, it would make this hurricane season one of the most active tropical storm seasons on record. Only 2005 recorded more storms between July and November with 25 tropical storms recorded. Only three seasons, 1995, 2004 and 2005, have recorded a ACE index greater than 204.
It needs to be emphasized that the UK Met Office has done very well in its forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008.
For the public release of this forecast, go to: http://metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/press ... 00617.html
For the more technical part of the UK Met Office forecast, go to: http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropica ... antic.html
Issued: Friday, June 18, 2010 625 am EDT/525 am CDT
For Maps, Images and Graphics On Invest 92-L, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.
Discussion
Invest 92-L Will Track Across The Lesser Antilles Today and **May Develop** Later On Down The Road: After being deactivated and pretty much written off yesterday, Invest 92-L came roaring back yesterday afternoon and last night and is currently a strong tropical wave that will track across the Lesser Antilles today. The overall setup this morning is as follows: An upper level low pressure system that was located to the northwest of 92-L is now tracking slowly northward. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure is developing over the southeastern Caribbean. This high pressure system is forecast to strengthen and build across much of the eastern Caribbean this weekend. This setup may allow Invest 92-L to get into a more favorable environment later this weekend and especially next week. Over the past hour or so, satellite imagery indicated that the convection had waned and become more ragged which indicates that the destructive shear is close by just to the north.
Thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas are likely today from the islands of St. Vincent northward through St. Martin and Anguilla. These thunderstorms with strong winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas will spread into the Virgin Islands later today and then Puerto Rico tonight and continue through Saturday. After that, heavy rainfall with the risk for flash flooding can be expected across Hispaniola this weekend.
Now, the big question is will Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm?? Even though Invest 92-L is producing strong convection this morning, I think wind shear will limit development into a tropical cyclone in the short term. In the longer term, however, many of the model guidance members are forecasting that this system will find much better environmental conditions by about the middle part of next week as it potentially nears the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. One thing to keep in mind is that when tropical systems bust through an area of very high shear, they can find themselves in pretty favorable environmental conditions, so it is quite possible that development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm may happen next week in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
A quick rundown of the particular model guidance members show that the GFDL model forecasts it to track north of Hispaniola and into the northern Bahamas, which seems too far north of a track. The Canadian model forecasts that it will track into the western Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF model forecasts that it will track to near south Florida and the northern Florida Keys in 5 days. The GFS model forecasts that 92-L will track into and through the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. The European model forecasts that 92-L will eventually combine with energy from the ITCZ and another tropical wave to its east and develop near the Yucatan Peninsula in about 9 or 10 days. As for intensity, the HWRF, GFDL and SHIPS intensity guidance all forecast that 92-L will intensify into a low end tropical storm.
My take is that the best shot for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm will be from Monday and beyond, once Invest 92-L reaches the northwest Caribbean or the Florida Straits and the environmental conditions become much more favorable. With this system being such a fighter in the face of strong shear, I suspect that this will be a system to really keep a close eye on over the next several days.
I will be posting updates on Invest 92-L throughout the weekend, so keep checking back for the latest.
UK Met Office Forecasting An Extremely Busy Hurricane Season: There is another reliable meteorological agency that is forecasting an extremely busy hurricane season. The Met Office over in the United Kingdom is forecasting 20 tropical storms between July and November with a Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 204.
If this verifies, it would make this hurricane season one of the most active tropical storm seasons on record. Only 2005 recorded more storms between July and November with 25 tropical storms recorded. Only three seasons, 1995, 2004 and 2005, have recorded a ACE index greater than 204.
It needs to be emphasized that the UK Met Office has done very well in its forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008.
For the public release of this forecast, go to: http://metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/press ... 00617.html
For the more technical part of the UK Met Office forecast, go to: http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropica ... antic.html
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Looks to me like there is going to be quite a lot of rain about in the Windward Islands today, probably some storms about as well as the convection is quite strong still.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145285
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings squally weather to NE Carib
Maybe a weak reflection of a circulation just west of Guadeloupe.

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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings squally weather to NE Carib
Some weak west winds in Dominica but it may not mean anything important.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDPD.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDPD.html
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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings squally weather to NE Carib
I hear thunder!
skies are clouding up.
wind is high
14 MPH from ESE
no rain yet
skies are clouding up.
wind is high
14 MPH from ESE
no rain yet
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Too many hurricanes to remember
- cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings squally weather to NE Carib
msbee wrote:I hear thunder!
skies are clouding up.
wind is high
14 MPH from ESE
no rain yet
Yes,the web cam there shows what you are saying.
Barbara,nothing too threatening for the islands right now,only scattered showers with some thunder and a few gusts but I can say as of right now,the Leewards have dodged a bullet in terms of having much more bad weather from this than what they are having.

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