2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[SamSagnella]

So far at least 52 individual tornado tracks have been identified during the March 2-3 severe weather event, with another half dozen or so still being inspected. These ~four and a half dozen tornadoes occurred across 12 states over a 26-hour period.

This significant early-season outbreak brings our preliminary year-to-date total up to 177 confirmed tornadoes through 0500z on March 5. The final tally will be calculated by the National Weather Service and will be released during the coming months.

Sam
Tracking the Confirmed Tornadoes of 2012 at:
http://www.tornadoesof.com/mar2012.htm

[SamSagnella]

Holy cow - this year has really started off on an unfortunate pace.

As of 05z on March 5, there have been 177 confirmed tornadoes across 19 different states thus far during 2012. A number of tornadoes from the March 2-3 event are still being evaluated so the number will likely continue to change, but it presently stands at 52.

Year-to-date:
Kentucky --> 31
Alabama -->24
Texas --> 23
Tennessee --> 16
Louisiana -->13
Missouri --> 11
Indiana --> 10
Mississippi --> 9
Arkansas --> 8
Georgia --> 8
Kansas --> 5
North Carolina --> 5
Ohio --> 5
South Carolina --> 4
Illinois --> 2
Nebraska --> 2
Virginia --> 2
West Virginia --> 2
Florida --> 1

Note that on at least three occasions tornadoes crossed state lines.

Confirmed January Tornadoes --> 77
Confirmed February Tornadoes --> 44
Confirmed March Tornadoes --> 56

The final tally will be calculated by the National Weather Service and will be finalized and released during the coming months.

[cycloneye]

SamSagnella,I merged your stats of tornadoes topic with this general 2012 severe season stats thread to not have two different threads about 2012 stats.

[cycloneye]

Updated 2012 Severe Weather Reports as of March 5th

Finnally,we have the updated 2012 stats and they are astonishing to say the least. 2012 has so far 274 tornadoes reported in a preliminary status.Also,49 deaths so far in 2012 is the latest count.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

Code: Select all

2012 Total Torn Hail Wind
Jan 2012 554 97 92 365
Feb 2012 707 57 188 462
Mar 2012 703 120 317 266
Apr 2012 0 0 0 0
May 2012 0 0 0 0
Jun 2012 0 0 0 0
Jul 2012 0 0 0 0
Aug 2012 0 0 0 0
Sep 2012 0 0 0 0
Oct 2012 0 0 0 0
Nov 2012 0 0 0 0
Dec 2012 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 1964 274 597 1093


State Tabulation:

Code: Select all

Tot Torn Hail Wind
AL 181 45 60 76
AK 0 0 0 0
AZ 0 0 0 0
AR 98 15 51 32
CA 0 0 0 0
CO 0 0 0 0
CT 0 0 0 0
DE 2 0 1 1
FL 26 2 0 24
GA 148 18 33 97
HI 0 0 0 0
ID 0 0 0 0
IL 59 7 27 25
IN 115 21 38 56
IA 0 0 0 0
KS 93 5 18 70
KY 324 49 106 169
LA 82 12 19 51
ME 0 0 0 0
MD 5 0 1 4
MA 0 0 0 0
MI 0 0 0 0
MN 0 0 0 0
MS 129 12 44 73
MO 123 15 45 63
MT 2 0 0 2
NE 6 3 0 3
NV 0 0 0 0
NH 0 0 0 0
NJ 0 0 0 0
NM 0 0 0 0
NY 24 0 0 24
NC 60 3 12 45
ND 0 0 0 0
OH 32 8 5 19
OK 34 0 13 21
OR 1 0 0 1
PA 7 0 0 7
RI 0 0 0 0
SC 47 6 9 32
SD 0 0 0 0
TN 187 28 55 104
TX 112 21 43 48
UT 0 0 0 0
VT 0 0 0 0
VA 30 2 9 19
WA 0 0 0 0
WV 34 2 6 26
WI 0 0 0 0
WY 1 0 0 1
DC 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 1962 274 595 1093


[SamSagnella]

Thanks CycloneEye.

It's been an amazingly busy first nine weeks.

[cycloneye]

Apart from the updated numbers two posts above,the updated graphics look very omminous to see how they are filling up,and we are only in early March.





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[cycloneye]

Thanks CycloneEye.

It's been an amazingly busy first nine weeks.

Ok no problem. Yes,we can use many words to describe what has occured so far in this 2012 season.

[vbhoutex]

Apart from the updated numbers two posts above,the updated graphic looks very omminous to look how is filling up,and we are only in early March.

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/1285/2 ... mapall.gif

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/8281 ... aptorn.gif

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Luis, those maps have the same title on them, but I presume the one with the red dots is tornado reports based on previous maps I have seen with a legend. Is that correct? Anyway, that first map is just plain scary with this only being March 5th.

[cycloneye]

Luis, those maps have the same title on them, but I presume the one with the red dots is tornado reports based on previous maps I have seen with a legend. Is that correct? Anyway, that first map is just plain scary with this only being March 5th

Yes the red dots only graphic are Tornado reports.

[somethingfunny]

Didn't really know where to post this but it's so unusual I have to share it:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 PM HST MON MAR 5 2012

HIC009-060715-
/O.CON.PHFO.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120306T0715Z/
MAUI HI-
900 PM HST MON MAR 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 PM HST FOR THE
ISLAND OF MOLOKAI IN MAUI COUNTY...

AT 858 PM HST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOLOKAI AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MOLOKAI AIRPORT...NEAR
HOOLEHUA AND KUALAPUU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2134 15707 2122 15687 2091 15710 2100 15726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 206DEG 15KT 2108 15711

$$

R BALLARD
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StormingB81]

Here is a scary stat...We all know how bad 2011 was but look at this..THROUGH March 5 we have 274 Torandoes! There was only 161 Torandoes THROUGH the month of March last year...however then we hit teh record breaking month of April..Lets hope we dont match that record breaking month

[cycloneye]

Attention to the Texas and Oklahoma folks as there is a slight risk issued for thursday.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND
SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
ECMWF/NAM/CMC/SREF MEAN ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING A
DAMPENING CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW INVOF AZ/NM THROUGH EARLY FRI. AT
THE SURFACE...MODEL SPREAD IS LARGER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE TX PANHANDLE
AT 12Z/THU. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH TIME
OVER THE SWD SPEED OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN CNTRL/ERN TX.

...SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SRN KS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WAA ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
OK INTO WRN AR/N-CNTRL TX BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. VEER-BACK WIND
PROFILES AND BROADENING PRECIP AREA SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
LARGELY CONSIST OF CLUSTERS. WITH PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A BELT OF 30-40 SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR ALL SEVERE TYPES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING.

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME SWWD ALONG THE FRONT IN
PARTS OF CNTRL TX...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES AND CONVERGENCES INCREASES. ALTHOUGH
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY GREATER SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...INITIATING TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...THE RISK SHOULD PRIMARILY CONSIST OF ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 03/06/2012



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[cycloneye]

The Slight Risk continues for parts of Northern Texas,Oklahoma,NW Louisiana and Missouri on Thursday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AT 12Z/THU SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT FURTHER CUTS OFF FROM THE BELT OF STRONGER
WLYS OVER THE NRN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED INTO A MORE
ELONGATED...HIGHLY-POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...BECOMING CENTERED
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SRN NM/AZ BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A FASTER S/SEWD PUSH TO
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU ACROSS OK
INTO NWRN TX AT 12Z/THU. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY SWD AS RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN GULF COAST ON FRI
MORNING.

...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THU MORNING ALONG/BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING S/SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE OF WAA ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER ERN OK...NERN TX AND AR DURING THE DAY...EXPANDING SWD INTO
SERN TX IN THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...30-40 KT
S/SWLYS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS
ERN TX INTO AR AND SERN OK. COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS YIELDING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG...A
RISK FOR ALL SEVERE TYPES MAY EXIST. SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY THE UNDERCUTTING/ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT IN OK/AR.

FARTHER SW IN ERN TX...STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT
GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AT PEAK
HEATING. WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONFINED TO THE
MID/UPPER-LEVELS...AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR
MORE BANDS. PRIMARY RISKS HERE SHOULD BE FROM SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE WRN GULF COAST.

..GRAMS.. 03/07/2012




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[somethingfunny]

If this is causing anybody issues with their loading speed, please let me know and I'll change it to a simple link to the gif. (or a moderator could do it)

Amazing radar loop.

[EF-5bigj]

I really don't think this year will be like last year but I do think some parts of the US will get tornadoes. Unfortunately likely strong in some area's

[cycloneye]

SF,no problem with the image.

Here is an update of the number of Tornadoes so far in 2012 and it increased to 300 (Preliminary) Also the number of deaths goes up to 52.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

[cycloneye]

There is a slight risk for Sunday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL
AR...

...ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL AR...

LATEST GFS AND NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EJECTING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TO
A POSITION ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER BY 12/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN ACCELERATE A BIT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 120-150M...WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO CLIP THE ARKLATEX REGION COINCIDENT WITH
THE NRN MOST ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION SUFFICIENT FOR
ROBUST NEAR-SFC CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM CNTRL TX...NWD ACROSS OK INTO KS/SWRN
MO. SUSTAINED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ALLOW 60F+ SFC DEW POINTS TO RETURN ACROSS EAST TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO SRN AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARGUES
FOR AT LEAST A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750 J/KG. WHILE
THE STRONGEST ZONE OF ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD REGIONS NORTH OF
AR...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COULD
ENCOURAGE STRONG/SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG/COLD UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FL AND ELEVATED ACTIVITY
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/10/2012



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[cycloneye]

The slight risk alert continues for today thru the evening,so be on alert if you live in the risk area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS REGION SWD INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE IA/SRN MN
VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE NWRN CONUS...WHILE A LEE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MO/AR/E TX/LA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM PARTS OF ERN KS/OK/ERN TX
EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WIDESPREAD...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING SHOULD HINDER OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING VORT LOBE SE OF THE
MAIN LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

HAVING SAID THAT...INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVERALL...THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN MODULATED BY THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD BE REALIZED. WHILE A CONDITIONAL
SCENARIO...THREAT WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE
ALREADY-LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD WANE SOME
OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 03/11/2012



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[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 71
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SERN
TX AS THE SRN END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWD
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST KHGX VWP INDICATES STRONG
LOW- AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOCKWISE TURNING
HODOGRAPH FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD WITH ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...WEISS

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion and graphic of the slight risk area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO ERN
AR...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS SRN MO...AR AND ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED
OVER LA AND ERN TX...WHERE A FEW STORMS WERE EXHIBITING ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER N INTO AR AND MO...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
RISING...WITH LOWERS 60S F NOW INTO SRN AR. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH MAY
TEND TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
STRONG AREA-WIDE...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF ROTATION TO DEVELOP
WITHIN STRONGER STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
OVER SRN AR AND LA...AND FAR ERN TX BEFORE THE LINE CROSSES THE
RIVER. HERE...INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER N
INTO AR AND MO...WHILE FORCING IS STRONG...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RETURN. THERE STILL MAY BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF RAIN...WITH A FEW BOWS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR PERHAPS MESOCYCLONES AT TIMES AND BRIEF
TORNADOES. BUT...THE THREAT WILL GENERALLY WANE WITH PASSAGE OF THE
EXISTING CONVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 03/11/2012



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