Latest 6:40EDT
Article from accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -i81/74784
Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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HurricaneAndrew92
Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
Since 93L won't develop tropically, if you live in it's path, post webcams, pictures, and how it affecting you.
Latest 6:40EDT
Article from accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -i81/74784
Latest 6:40EDT
Article from accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -i81/74784
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HurricaneAndrew92
Re: Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Affects
Webcam site:
http://www.wxnation.com/jackson/webcams/
http://www.wxnation.com/jackson/webcams/
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HurricaneAndrew92
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
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HurricaneAndrew92
There's a cold front coming in from the west as well, the energy from these two should combine this afternoon over PA and move into my area later this evening (Central NJ). Current Wind Advisory is @ 25 mph w/ 40 mph gusts and an extra 1-2 inches of rain. Should be a impressive lightning show as well.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Here's the last release for my area:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-191230-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
829 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND ADVISORY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-191230-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
829 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND ADVISORY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
$$
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
TORNADO WATCH 643 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-182300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0643.120918T1610Z-120918T2300Z/
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
TORNADO WATCH 643 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-182300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0643.120918T1610Z-120918T2300Z/
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND
ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Latest Hazard Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-191630-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1217 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 643 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND ADVISORY.
TORNADO WATCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-191630-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1217 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 643 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND ADVISORY.
TORNADO WATCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
$$
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Lunch Time Forecast Discussion:
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181602
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING, BUT POTENT, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN FILLING IN BEHIND IT LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR PATTERN. AS MY MID
SHIFT PREDECESSOR HAS BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS WE STILL HAVE AN
UNPHASED SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST
OF THE ACTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
SECOND FRONT MAYBE PROLONGING LIGHTER RAIN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT.
EVEN WITHOUT THE PHASING THERE IS SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND KDIX
AND KDOX VMP ARE BOTH SHOWING 50KTS OF WIND ALRDY AT 3K. THE HI
RES WRF-NMM EAST IS SHOWING THE BEST DEPICTION OF ONOGING
CONVECTION, BOTH THE HRRR AND COSPA SEEM TOO HOT TOO EAST TOO
FAST. WE HAVE CLOUDED OVER WHICH WOULD REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT,
BUT ITS NOT ENOUGH. SO WE WILL WAIT FOR ORGANIZATION TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOLLOWING THE WRF-NMM-E FOR
NOW AS HIEST IMPACT TIME.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR NORTH AND WEST WHERE FFG IS
HIGH, SO UNLESS THERE IS TRAINING, SO FAR SO GOOD.
IF WE DID NOT HAVE THE TOPOGRAPHY NW, WE ARE TEMPTED TO DROP THE
ADVISORY THERE, BUT WITH THE HIER TERRAIN, WE WILL KEEP IT GOING.
HIEST CONFIDENCE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION REMAINS EAST FOR WIND ADVY
GUSTS. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, TODAY LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY. THE MODELS STILL SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERN
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MODERATE IN
NATURE, AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND H8 DEW
POINTS AND H7 THETA E VALUES CONFIRM THAT MOISTURE IS DEEP. WE
START WITH HIGH FFG AND FFH VALUES (THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ARE
FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE AREA IN AND NEAR URBANIZED PARTS
OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY), BUT PLACES WHERE CONVECTION (ONCE IT
DEVELOPS) HITS HARDEST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME KIND OF FLOOD ADVISORY
OR WARNING. OUR QPF FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM A BIT
OVER AN INCH SOUTHEAST TO ALMOST 2.5 INCHES NORTHWEST, BUT LOCALES
HARD HIT BY CONVECTION COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING CONVECTION, THE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT DEVELOP DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER JET, A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
THAT WAS THE ROBUST TEXAS WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
GOOD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND HELICITY BECOMES VERY
ROBUST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WOULD BE INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LOW TOP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, AND IT WOULD REQUIRE A BREAK BETWEEN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN AND THE CONVECTIVE RAIN FOR US TO WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO TAP THAT INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND DEVELOP
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THAT IS A POSSIBILITY, AND SPC MAINTAINS
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
REGARDING WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, IT ALSO IS THE CASE THAT WE
WOULD HAVE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY AT THE SURFACE TO MIX THE STRONG
WINDS AT ABOUT H950 DOWN. THE NAM SAYS WE WILL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS
DOES NOT. THE ADVISORY LIKELY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE VERIFYING
SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST (EXCEPT FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHWEST), BECAUSE THE CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN RAIN AND
CLOUDS IS HIGHER THERE. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM THE
ADVISORY GEOGRAPHICALLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT AND MOST OF THE SUPPORT ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FROM LATE EVENING NORTHWEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST (THE HIGHER
ONE GOES, THE MORE THE KINEMATICS AND DYNAMICS HANG BACK WITH THE
UPPER JET JUST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK). THE FRONT
SHOULD TAKE THE WINDS AND THE CONVECTION (POSSIBLY STRONG) WITH
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME REAR INFLOW RAINFALL
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WOULD BE ENHANCED (AS THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
FORECASTER NOTED) BY TRAILING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THE UPPER
JET. SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST NEAR THE COLD FRONT, WE DID NOT
CHANGE THE ADVISORY TIMING AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX WINDS DOWN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AFTER DUSK.
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WERE RELIED ON FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THIS DYNAMIC PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH
WEST-EAST PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WHICH KEEPS
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY BUT A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY THURSDAY. THE BLOCKY PATTERN
WILL ALSO KEEP THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH COULD PLAY A FACTOR IN A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY AS
THE POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE, BUT AS WAS SAID
ABOVE, GETS HUNG UP A BIT. A BRISK NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND KICKS IN AND
REALLY BEGINS TO COOL THE COLUMN. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
5-6C AND IF WE ARE ABLE TO MIX UP TO THAT LEVEL ADIABATICALLY, THAT
WOULD YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 71F...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE
STAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS
WHICH SEEMS COMPLETELY PROBABLE GIVEN A MINOR DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
THE STRONGER FLOW WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY GIVING US MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. OCEAN
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-70S SHOULD PERMIT DAYTIME
MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS, ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS TOO. THIS HIGH
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND SETS UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY.
ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST DIVES INTO THE STUCK LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS
MID-LEVEL WAVE THEN DROPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATER
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW STRONG
THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACTUALLY IS AND
THEREFORE HOW FAST IT PUSHING IT EAST. FOR THE TIME BEING MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY AND PART OF SUNDAY AND THEN DRY OUT MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BACK BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING FIRST IN SHOWERS AND THEN
IN THUNDERSTORMS. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY (THAT
WAS IN THE TAFS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING), BUT IF AND WHERE THAT
DOES NOT HAPPEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WOULD DEVELOP (THAT WAS NOT IN
THE TAFS AS OF THIS MORNING). THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
COINCIDE WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST. ANY THREAT OF
STRONG WINDS OR LLWS WILL END WITH THAT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. WINDS TURN MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OUTSIDE OF THE PHL METRO AREA.
SATURDAY...STARTS OFF VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WERE STARTED AT THE PRESENT AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS.
WE MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING AS IT WAS. WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 C
STAND A FAIR CHANCE OF TAPPING THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 1500 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THAT WILL END THE GALES. SEAS OF UP TO 10 OR
11 FT ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 FT ARE FORECAST
FOR THE BAY WHILE THE GALES OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 25
KNOTS, ULTIMATELY DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS WILL DROP
FROM 8 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT, MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD AFFECT
OUR WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH BY SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CBOFS, DBOFS AND A LOCAL ALGORITHM ARE POINTING TO ADVISORY LEVEL
TIDES FROM REEDY POINT UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND UP CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL NOT BEING ABLE TO DRAIN WELL IF IT OCCURS AROUND HIGH TIDE,
WE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY, WITH
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE ALONG WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DELISI/HEAVENER
MARINE...DELISI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181602
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1202 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING, BUT POTENT, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN FILLING IN BEHIND IT LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR PATTERN. AS MY MID
SHIFT PREDECESSOR HAS BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS WE STILL HAVE AN
UNPHASED SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST
OF THE ACTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
SECOND FRONT MAYBE PROLONGING LIGHTER RAIN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT.
EVEN WITHOUT THE PHASING THERE IS SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND KDIX
AND KDOX VMP ARE BOTH SHOWING 50KTS OF WIND ALRDY AT 3K. THE HI
RES WRF-NMM EAST IS SHOWING THE BEST DEPICTION OF ONOGING
CONVECTION, BOTH THE HRRR AND COSPA SEEM TOO HOT TOO EAST TOO
FAST. WE HAVE CLOUDED OVER WHICH WOULD REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT,
BUT ITS NOT ENOUGH. SO WE WILL WAIT FOR ORGANIZATION TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOLLOWING THE WRF-NMM-E FOR
NOW AS HIEST IMPACT TIME.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR NORTH AND WEST WHERE FFG IS
HIGH, SO UNLESS THERE IS TRAINING, SO FAR SO GOOD.
IF WE DID NOT HAVE THE TOPOGRAPHY NW, WE ARE TEMPTED TO DROP THE
ADVISORY THERE, BUT WITH THE HIER TERRAIN, WE WILL KEEP IT GOING.
HIEST CONFIDENCE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION REMAINS EAST FOR WIND ADVY
GUSTS. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, TODAY LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY. THE MODELS STILL SUPPORT THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERN
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MODERATE IN
NATURE, AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND H8 DEW
POINTS AND H7 THETA E VALUES CONFIRM THAT MOISTURE IS DEEP. WE
START WITH HIGH FFG AND FFH VALUES (THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES ARE
FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE AREA IN AND NEAR URBANIZED PARTS
OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY), BUT PLACES WHERE CONVECTION (ONCE IT
DEVELOPS) HITS HARDEST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME KIND OF FLOOD ADVISORY
OR WARNING. OUR QPF FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM A BIT
OVER AN INCH SOUTHEAST TO ALMOST 2.5 INCHES NORTHWEST, BUT LOCALES
HARD HIT BY CONVECTION COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING CONVECTION, THE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT DEVELOP DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER JET, A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
THAT WAS THE ROBUST TEXAS WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
GOOD MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND HELICITY BECOMES VERY
ROBUST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WOULD BE INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LOW TOP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, AND IT WOULD REQUIRE A BREAK BETWEEN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN AND THE CONVECTIVE RAIN FOR US TO WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO TAP THAT INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND DEVELOP
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THAT IS A POSSIBILITY, AND SPC MAINTAINS
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
REGARDING WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, IT ALSO IS THE CASE THAT WE
WOULD HAVE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY AT THE SURFACE TO MIX THE STRONG
WINDS AT ABOUT H950 DOWN. THE NAM SAYS WE WILL, ALTHOUGH THE GFS
DOES NOT. THE ADVISORY LIKELY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE VERIFYING
SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST (EXCEPT FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHWEST), BECAUSE THE CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN RAIN AND
CLOUDS IS HIGHER THERE. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM THE
ADVISORY GEOGRAPHICALLY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT AND MOST OF THE SUPPORT ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FROM LATE EVENING NORTHWEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST (THE HIGHER
ONE GOES, THE MORE THE KINEMATICS AND DYNAMICS HANG BACK WITH THE
UPPER JET JUST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK). THE FRONT
SHOULD TAKE THE WINDS AND THE CONVECTION (POSSIBLY STRONG) WITH
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME REAR INFLOW RAINFALL
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WOULD BE ENHANCED (AS THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
FORECASTER NOTED) BY TRAILING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THE UPPER
JET. SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST NEAR THE COLD FRONT, WE DID NOT
CHANGE THE ADVISORY TIMING AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO MIX WINDS DOWN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AFTER DUSK.
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WERE RELIED ON FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THIS DYNAMIC PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH
WEST-EAST PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WHICH KEEPS
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DRY BUT A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF BY THURSDAY. THE BLOCKY PATTERN
WILL ALSO KEEP THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH COULD PLAY A FACTOR IN A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY AS
THE POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE, BUT AS WAS SAID
ABOVE, GETS HUNG UP A BIT. A BRISK NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND KICKS IN AND
REALLY BEGINS TO COOL THE COLUMN. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
5-6C AND IF WE ARE ABLE TO MIX UP TO THAT LEVEL ADIABATICALLY, THAT
WOULD YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 71F...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE
STAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS
WHICH SEEMS COMPLETELY PROBABLE GIVEN A MINOR DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
THE STRONGER FLOW WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY GIVING US MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. OCEAN
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-70S SHOULD PERMIT DAYTIME
MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS, ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS TOO. THIS HIGH
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND SETS UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY.
ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST DIVES INTO THE STUCK LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS
MID-LEVEL WAVE THEN DROPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATER
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW STRONG
THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACTUALLY IS AND
THEREFORE HOW FAST IT PUSHING IT EAST. FOR THE TIME BEING MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY AND PART OF SUNDAY AND THEN DRY OUT MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BACK BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING FIRST IN SHOWERS AND THEN
IN THUNDERSTORMS. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY (THAT
WAS IN THE TAFS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING), BUT IF AND WHERE THAT
DOES NOT HAPPEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WOULD DEVELOP (THAT WAS NOT IN
THE TAFS AS OF THIS MORNING). THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
COINCIDE WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST. ANY THREAT OF
STRONG WINDS OR LLWS WILL END WITH THAT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. WINDS TURN MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OUTSIDE OF THE PHL METRO AREA.
SATURDAY...STARTS OFF VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WERE STARTED AT THE PRESENT AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS.
WE MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING AS IT WAS. WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 C
STAND A FAIR CHANCE OF TAPPING THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 1500 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THAT WILL END THE GALES. SEAS OF UP TO 10 OR
11 FT ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 FT ARE FORECAST
FOR THE BAY WHILE THE GALES OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 25
KNOTS, ULTIMATELY DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS WILL DROP
FROM 8 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY TO 4 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT, MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD AFFECT
OUR WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH BY SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CBOFS, DBOFS AND A LOCAL ALGORITHM ARE POINTING TO ADVISORY LEVEL
TIDES FROM REEDY POINT UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND UP CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL NOT BEING ABLE TO DRAIN WELL IF IT OCCURS AROUND HIGH TIDE,
WE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY, WITH
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE ALONG WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DELISI/HEAVENER
MARINE...DELISI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
0 likes
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
HurricaneAndrew92
Re: Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
Webcams for NYC, Washington DC and Boston
http://www.earthcam.com/network/index.p ... us&page=NY
http://masswebcams.com/
http://www.wxnation.com/washingtondc/webcams/
Lastest Radar:
High wind has cancelled all sports games in our town today.
http://www.earthcam.com/network/index.p ... us&page=NY
http://masswebcams.com/
http://www.wxnation.com/washingtondc/webcams/
Lastest Radar:
High wind has cancelled all sports games in our town today.
0 likes
-
HurricaneAndrew92
Re: Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
Ravryn, could you help me here and converse. It would be nice to talk to someone bout this!
I need human companionship!
I need human companionship!
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Re: Ex Invest 93L: Track...Strength..Effects
Latest WFD (partial):
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181941
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER EXCEPT AT
925MB OVER THE GFS. AMONG THE HI RES MODELS THE WRF-NMM-E LOOKED
THE BEST AT HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THE WRF-NMMB ALSO
IS VERIFYING BEST WITH THE DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS
MOST OF THE SERIOUS WEATHER ACTIVITY IS WITH THE LEAD FRONT.
SEVERE, THE SHEAR IS OFF THE CHARTS, BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER. WE ARE WATCHING ALL RADARS FOR POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED TOR(S).
ANY ENHANCING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS BY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BRING DAMAGING WINDS DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. HIGHEST THREAT
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FLOODING. WE DO HAVE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WARNING UP FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS AREA WAS HIT THE HARDEST WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF OUR CWA HAS AVOIDED HEAVIER
RAIN SO FAR. SO WHEN THIS BATCH DOES MOVE EAST, WE ARE EXPECTING
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO REMAIN THE LARGEST CONCERN.
WIND, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE LLJ INCREASING BY ABOUT ANOTHER 10
KNOTS AND PEAKING ACROSS OUR CWA THRU 00Z. WE ARE AT OUR PEAK FOR
LAPSE RATES AS WE ARE TYPING, SO TAKING A TWO-THIRDS ONE THIRD
APPROACH SHOULD STILL HAVE US AROUND THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND ADVY.
THE WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES.
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 181941
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER EXCEPT AT
925MB OVER THE GFS. AMONG THE HI RES MODELS THE WRF-NMM-E LOOKED
THE BEST AT HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THE WRF-NMMB ALSO
IS VERIFYING BEST WITH THE DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS
MOST OF THE SERIOUS WEATHER ACTIVITY IS WITH THE LEAD FRONT.
SEVERE, THE SHEAR IS OFF THE CHARTS, BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER. WE ARE WATCHING ALL RADARS FOR POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED TOR(S).
ANY ENHANCING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS BY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BRING DAMAGING WINDS DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. HIGHEST THREAT
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FLOODING. WE DO HAVE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD WARNING UP FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS AREA WAS HIT THE HARDEST WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF OUR CWA HAS AVOIDED HEAVIER
RAIN SO FAR. SO WHEN THIS BATCH DOES MOVE EAST, WE ARE EXPECTING
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TO REMAIN THE LARGEST CONCERN.
WIND, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE LLJ INCREASING BY ABOUT ANOTHER 10
KNOTS AND PEAKING ACROSS OUR CWA THRU 00Z. WE ARE AT OUR PEAK FOR
LAPSE RATES AS WE ARE TYPING, SO TAKING A TWO-THIRDS ONE THIRD
APPROACH SHOULD STILL HAVE US AROUND THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND ADVY.
THE WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES.
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
0 likes
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looks like the real heavy weather will be to my west by quite a bit, but the winds have started to pick up pretty good. I've never actually seen clouds move this fast across the sky, pretty cool but well see how the next few hours play out.
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Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
obs:
Still no thunder and just light rain, winds gusts are getting stronger, only light branches falling so far.
_________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Still no thunder and just light rain, winds gusts are getting stronger, only light branches falling so far.
_________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
HurricaneAndrew92
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