Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

I'm glad that you are okay Luis. That is some pretty serious and dangerous flooding. Great pictures.

The good news is that no fatalitles occurred but there was some damage to stores,cars and roads.

[cycloneye]

Is all over thankfully.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
824 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS MUCH REDUCED IN UPDATES GIVEN THE TREND
AND THE RAPID APPROACH OF DRIER IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP...
ALREADY ARRIVED AT EASTERN PR COAST...AND END OF LIGHTNING FROM
NETWORKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DROPPED VERY QUICKLY AROUND 6PM AND
RIVERS ARE SUBSIDING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RIO GUAYNES...EXPECT IT TO
BEGIN DROPPING VERY SOON. THE ONLY SHOWERS REMAINING ARE THOSE
FALLING FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND NOTHING TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO RETURN BY MORNING.

[abajan]

Is all over thankfully ...

Thing is, it looks like Hispaniola is getting pounded by the same weather right now. I hope they fare okay (especially Haiti, with their history of disasters).

[cycloneye]

Good morning. After the Tropical Wave passed yesterday thru PR bringing incredible amounts of rain,today and the weekend will be with good weather.Another wave will arrive next Monday increasing the showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&


.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 750/800 HPA DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW...A FEW SPRINKLES
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY MIDDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN COME MID
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AFTER
19/12Z AT 10-15KTS AND GUSTY WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT TJPS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 19/16Z WHICH MAY
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS A
RESULT SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AFTER
19/12Z AT 10-15KTS AND GUSTY WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...
ESPECIALLY AT TJPS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 19/16Z WHICH MAY
CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS A
RESULT SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

[cycloneye]

July 18 rain event report


.CLIMATE...TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT NEW CLIMATE RECORDS AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA AND THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT.

A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 9.23 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA YESTERDAY...THIS BROKE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 3.19
INCHES SET BACK IN 1950.

A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 9.23 INCHES WAS SET AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT YESTERDAY...THIS BROKE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 2.17 INCHES SET BACK IN 1969.

A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS SET AT THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA YESTERDAY...THIS TIED PREVIOUS RECORD OF 82F SET BACK
IN 1950.

A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS SET AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT YESTERDAY...THIS BROKE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
83F SET BACK IN 1995.

JULY 2013 IS NOW THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN AREA
WITH 12.43 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO FAR. THIS BROKE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 11.23 INCHES SET BACK IN JULY 1950.

2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR WITH
48.25 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO FAR.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=rainfallrecord_0718

[msbee]

Very impressive floodings Cycloneye !!! That's really incredible. Glad to see that you're ok
For a twave, it has punch and punch power!
For info, yesterday afternoon 5PM, big lightnings and tstorms felt near my car i when i was driving, so given these pics i can easily understand what PR endured today!
Hope that things will be ok quickly in PR

The good news is that the rain has stopped to allow the rivers,creeks and roads filled with water to go down. Also,no fatalitles ocured related to this big rain event.

Incredible amount of rain Luis. Glad everyone was OK. This is a good example of how just a "little" tropical wave can cause some real problems for the islands.

[Gustywind]

Very impressive floodings Cycloneye !!! That's really incredible. Glad to see that you're ok
For a twave, it has punch and punch power!
For info, yesterday afternoon 5PM, big lightnings and tstorms felt near my car i when i was driving, so given these pics i can easily understand what PR endured today!
Hope that things will be ok quickly in PR

The good news is that the rain has stopped to allow the rivers,creeks and roads filled with water to go down. Also,no fatalitles ocured related to this big rain event.

Excellent news from la isla del encanto No fatalities PR is blessed, that's very good.

[Gustywind]

Hi Barbara ! You're definitely right on that. Nasty twave could pose serious threat in an island, that's why we should continue to monitor carefuly all the twaves forming on our east...

[tropicana]

UPDATE Fri Jul 19/13

SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE
(records 1898-2013)

(as measured at Luis Munoz Marin Int Airport 3 miles SE of San Juan)

WETTEST JULY DAY July 18 2013 9.23 inches
PREVIOUS WETTEST JULY DAY July 7 1901 4.04 inches

Wettest days ever at San Juan:-

Aug 15 1944 9.67 inches
Jul 18 2013 9.23 inches
Dec 14 1910 8.84 inches
Sep 18 1989 8.84 inches (in association with Hurricane Hugo)
Sep 10 1996 8.20 inches (in association with Hurricane Hortense)
Nov 11 1931 7.92 inches

-Justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...STRENGTHENING NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS AND SHIFTS
FOCUS TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST SOUTH OF 40 NORTH BY MID WEEK.
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OFF OF AFRICA SUNDAY AND MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE DRY
AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE SHOWERS FORMED OUT OF ANASCO AND MOVED WEST
NORTHWEST OVER RINCON BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM AST. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW
LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS CEIBA AND THE EASTERN
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THIS DRIER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE HAVE AN INTERLUDE OF DRIER AIR MIXED
WITH SAHARAN DUST. ON MONDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MORE DRIER AIR AND
PERHAPS EVEN MORE DUST. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE MONDAY TROPICAL WAVE AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AT MID
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ON FRIDAY. FEATURES AT
THIS TIME APPEAR WEAK WITH LESS MID LEVEL SUPPORT THAN TYPICAL.
WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE ON MONDAY ARE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS WAVE AND
THERE IS MORE DUST BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND IT SO THE GFS AND THE
EVEN DRIER ECMWF REPRESENTATION OF THE WAVE APPEAR
REASONABLE...SUCH THAT ON MONDAY ONLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TO AND RIGHT AFTER THE MONDAY
WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...ENDING AT AROUND 19/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST OVER LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS WITH FRESH WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN PROTECTED WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 20

[msbee]

Hi Barbara ! You're definitely right on that. Nasty twave could pose serious threat in an island, that's why we should continue to monitor carefuly all the twaves forming on our east...

Yep, gusty.... we gotta keep on the look out

Lots of Saharan dust here today..hope that keeps the storms away

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail this weekend in PR but Tropical Wave will arrive by Monday bringing increasing showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT JUL 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IS
STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT WE ARE UNDER A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND IT IS EQUALLY AS DRY ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IT WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY INHIBIT
CONVECTION...FOR TODAY...AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT MAYBE EVEN A BIT DRIER...
BEFORE A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB GO FROM
AROUND 330 AT 22/00Z UP TO AROUND 337 AT 22/12Z TO ALMOST 340 AT
22/18Z. SO AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT
WEEKEND...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RETURN TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFT 20/17Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS
AT 4-6 FEET WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 78 / 10 20 20 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT JUL 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...BELIEVE THE WIDESPREAD STORMS CURRENTLY FROM SAN
GERMAN TO MAYAGUEZ WILL WIND DOWN WELL BEFORE SUNSET AS THE GROUND
THERE COOL SO DID NOT RETAIN MUCH THEREAFTER.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED IN ONGOING FORECASTS. GFS SHOWS
EVEN LESS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER MIGHT DROP TO LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES DURING
AFTERNOON OVER PR (TIMING IS A QUESTION) WHICH SATELLITE CONFIRMS
APPROACHING FROM EAST. BUT STRONG SUNSHINE ALMOST ENSURES THAT
SOME WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PR MOUNTAINS. REST OF AREA MIGHT
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 48W TO ARRIVE ON MON WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER
INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AS IT
IS ENTRAINING SOME DRY AIR BUT 1000-700 MB THETA-E IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH 342K ON MON AFTERNOON WITH ESE FLOW...CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
MAINLAND PR. SCATTERED CONVECTION MON MORNING FOR USVI LOOKS GOOD.
CONDITIONS TURN DRY AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. SAHARAN AIR TO FOLLOW
THIS WAVE BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE JUST HAD THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...ENDING AT AROUND 20/21Z. BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS FOR TKPK/TNCM AND TIST/TISX. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KT SEAS 6 FT OR UNDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 40 50
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST SAT JUL 20 2013

.UPDATE...MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS OF THE PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DIMINISHED
AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE EVENING. HOWEVER THE
PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW...CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS PATTERN
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
A CHANCE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 50 WEST IS STILL
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THEREFORE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE INHERITED POPS AND WEATHER
ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION UNFOLDS AS THIS FEATURE ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR NOW.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS APPARENT NORTH AND EAST OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE..THEREFORE EXPECT RAPID DRYING BY TUESDAY AND DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will arrive late tonight to cause an increase in showers in the PR area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST SUN JUL 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER
LOW TO THE REMAINS TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TROPICAL WAVE STILL EXPECTED FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST BEFORE
THE TROPICAL WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL GO
DOWN TO UNDER 1.2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING EVEN DRIER
AT 22/00Z WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.13 INCHES.
HOWEVER...THE HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TOPICAL WAVE AT ABOUT 53W IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES A NICE INCREASE IN THETA-E AS WELL AS IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...GOING FROM 1.3 INCHES AT 22/06Z UP TO 2.12 INCHES AT
22/18Z. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THETA-E AT 700MB MAY BE
ENOUGH TO HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND WRF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN HALF AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NAM
MODEL FAVORS MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF PUERTO
RICO AND ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SOME
BUT NOT MUCH EVERYWHERE ELSE...GIVEN HOW THE NAM MODEL DID NOT
PERFORM QUITE AS WELL AS THE GFS DID WITH THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE I
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/WRF...INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AREAS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND TO THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE A RETURN. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS WITH ISOLATED SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TKPK THROUGH
ABOUT 21/12Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFT 21/17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 21 KTS SEAS 6 FT OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 40 50 40
STT 90 80 89 81 / 20 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN JUL 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE 56W CURRENTLY LOOKING UNIMPRESSIVE
THOUGH CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH THETA-E VALUES WILL COME WITH IT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDER HERE MON AFTERNOON. MOST NOTABLE
CURRENT CONVECTION IS NEAR 19N/55W BUT GFS INDICATES THIS PORTION
OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND
TOWARDS MORE SHEAR ALOFT. A HIGHLY SHEARED WAVE WILL RESULT AND
PASS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH LITTLE THETA-E CONVERGENCE.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS ATLANTIC CURRENTLY AT AFRICAN
COAST. GFS SHOWS IT HIGHLY SHEARED ALSO WITH STRONGEST PART WELL
NORTHEAST OF AREA...IN CONTRAST TO RECENT RUNS WHICH APPARENTLY
WERE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THIS MODEL DEVELOPED IT
MORE. SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSING BY NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...ENDING AT AROUND 21/21Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR TKPK AFTER 22/02Z
AND 22/06Z FOR TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT
RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BUT WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AFTER
THE WAVE PASSES ON MON. WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TOO. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN AT/BELOW 21 KT AND SEAS 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 89 / 40 60 40 20
STT 80 89 80 90 / 50 60 30 10

[Macrocane]

It seems I am very late here But I'm glad everything's OK in Puerto Rico, 9 inches of rain in just one day could have been catastrophic

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave moves thru PR today bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE THEN TUTT
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID WEEK AND HOLD THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED INTO THE ERN CARIB
SEA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS PR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT. THIS WAVE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVE WX TODAY. MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE IS NOT ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO LAST WAVE ON THU AND IT LOOKS LIKE BEST MOISTURE WILL
PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY THRU THE AREA TODAY. SO A REPEAT OF LAST THU
APPEARS UNLIKELY. ANY FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE LOCALIZED AND NOT
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL THEN DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK. HOT TUE AND
WED WITH SOME DUST HAZE. SLIGHTLY BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCT
DIURNAL ACTIVITY THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT.
NEXT WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE AREA NEXT MON JUL 29 ACCORDING TO
YERSTERDAY`S MEDIUM RANGE FCST FROM NHC/WPC ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS IS
FASTER ABOUT A DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER TNCM AND TKPK STARTING AT
AROUND 22/06Z...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST AT 15 KT...CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA WILL
SPREAD OVER USVI AND PR TAF SITES BTWN 22/12Z-19Z. LLVL WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NE TO E AT 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT
NEAR THE TSRA. WX CONDS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 23/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SCT-NMRS TSRA THIS AFTEROON ACROSS ATLC AND CARIB WATERS
WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE. IMPROVING WX TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 70 30 0 20
STT 88 80 89 81 / 70 20 0 20

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
914 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-222015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
914 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.


$$

EM/ASA/CAM/RGH/GV

[msbee]

we have just the tail end of that over by us... showers and windy.. but nothing too bad.
stay dry and safe over there in PR