Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean and S.A. need to pay SERIOUS attention to this report

http://news.caribseek.com/index.php/wor ... ate-change

Hi Barbara. Is very important to pay attention to what is going on with the climate as things may turn bad as time goes ahead for the islands in terms of the rising sea and other ramifications.

[cycloneye]

September Climate Report for PR/VI

A few records of rainfall and temperatures were broken in September.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=sep2013cr

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[FireBird]

Hey guys, checking on this Atlantic development now, but about 45mins ago we had quite an EARTHQUAKE!!!
USGS says 6.1 on the Richter. That was a real jolt! All the birds and dogs in my home were frantic, and my mom ran into a wall and hurt her shoulder. I hope we don't get anything too much worse again tonight, and now with the pending threat a few days away, I'm REALLY in disaster prep mode! Let's keep on the ball guys!

[cycloneye]

Hey guys, checking on this Atlantic development now, but about 45mins ago we had quite an EARTHQUAKE!!!
USGS says 6.1 on the Richter. That was a real jolt! All the birds and dogs in my home were frantic, and my mom ran into a wall and hurt her shoulder. I hope we don't get anything too much worse again tonight, and now with the pending threat a few days away, I'm REALLY in disaster prep mode! Let's keep on the ball guys!

Hi my friend. Hopefully nothing bad occurred over there. See the details of the quake at the Caribbean Seismic activity thread at Geology forum as a subforum of the Global Weather forum.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks increasingly likely that the Eastern Caribbean will see some effects from Invest 98L not as a storm but bringing some rain as it continues moving west to westnorthwest. Stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SAT OCT 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER HISPANIOLA AND INDUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA. A CUT OFF LOW RESULTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD PUERTO RICO THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND DURING THE WEEK. A
LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES TOWARD THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
WESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BRINGING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE OR THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SLOT IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVED THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY LAST NIGHT AND THROUGH PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOW ALMOST ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE LAND AREAS WERE
MAINLY DRY. THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FAIRLY STEADILY AT A
LITTLE OVER ONE QUARTER DEGREE PER HOUR AND WILL BE OVER ALMOST
ALL OF PUERTO RICO IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAXIMUM.
MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT AS TO THE DIRECTION OF THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE GFS SUGGESTED THAT 850 MB FLOW
SHOULD BE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT TO
AS MUCH AS 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND REMAIN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MOIST BAND IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
BEHIND A DRIER AREA THAT IS EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE. FOR THIS
REASON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS WETTER THAN SUNDAY OVERALL AND
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. BUT MONDAY SHOULD BE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES MOST OF
THE WEEK AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND PONCE AND MAYAGUEZ.

INSTABILITY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 2 INCHES BUT ABOVE 1.76 THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ON THE EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND DOWNSTREAM FROM MANY OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND LARGER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. DRIER AIR ON
TUESDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH MORE MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GOOD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

THE HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1750 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT PRESENTLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WEAKEN IT
WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD POOL ON SUNDAY
OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THAT THAT WOULD BRING ONLY AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ AND TJBQ ARE POSSIBLE...WITH VCSH AT
TJSJ...AND USVI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST...BECOMING MORE
SE 12/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS PEAKED. IT REACHED 6.5 FEET
AT BUOY 41043...BUT DID NOT REACH 5 FEET AT THE SAN JUAN BUOY
41053. SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TOMORROW AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK EXCEPT LOCALLY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 77 / 30 30 30 40
STT 89 78 89 80 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SAT OCT 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL HOLD IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
ERODE BY MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTH
AND WEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE... A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION CONTINUED TO CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE TRAILING THIS FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LOCAL TERRAIN ALONG WITH
SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FORMED
AND STREAMED NORTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR THERE WE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...NORTH CENTRAL...
AND THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS FORMED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND
QUICKLY STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD. SO FAR HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OR REPORTED. EXPECT THE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AND DISSIPATE JUST AFTER
SUNSET.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND EVENING HOURS. BY EARLY MORNING HOWEVER A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN. RAINFALL
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT OF SHORT DURATION AND NO WIDESPREAD
OR MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF PR TIL 12/22. THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS VCTY OF
TJSJ...TJNR...TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS TIL APPROX 12/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 88 / 30 40 40 40
STT 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 PM AST SAT OCT 12 2013

.UPDATE...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES
AT LOW LEVELS...AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORT BREAK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE EAST BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave moving thru PR today will bring scattered showers to the area. It looks like the week will be rather wet as troughs linger nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED OVER AND DISPLACED TO
THE EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT AND A LOW PINCHES OFF NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES SOUTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WILL BE NUDGED TO THE EAST BY A LOW IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BAND OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AND REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY THROUGH MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL
BRING A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS BAND PASSED THROUGH SAINT
MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PUERTO
RICO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK WIND
SURGE BEHIND THE MOISTURE BAND THAT BRINGS IN AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR...FLOW AT 700 MB TURNS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGS THE BAND BACK
THROUGH THE AREA AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER RECOVERS QUICKLY AND THEN RISES FROM 1.8 INCHES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT TO OVER 2 INCHES ON THE FOLLOWING MONDAY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RELATIVELY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE [PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AT UPPER
LEVELS MOVING INTO THE VICINITY AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHING
OFF NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE AND REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WILL ALLOW AREAS OF DIVERGENCE TO PASS THROUGH FAVORING
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH NO PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL
TRIGGER INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE...DIURNAL VARIATIONS WILL BE THE PRINCIPLE
DRIVER SUCH THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS AND DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING SUNDAY AND TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY TENDS TO DECREASE DURING THE WEEK SO WOULD ALSO EXPECT
TO SEE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL BE THE NORM FOR
A WHILE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTH
COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH COAST SEA BREEZES WILL BE
STRONGER AND EARLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEAST FLOW
DIMINISHES AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WI TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AT NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WL ARRIVE USVI THIS MRNG THEN PR MAINLY IN AFT. VFR TO
PREVAIL TDY BUT BRF MVFR AND PSBL IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA AND OCNL
OBSCD MTNS. WINDS SFC-FL150 ESE-SE 12-22 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE ALL LESS THAN 5 FEET AND WILL SUBSIDE VERY
SLOWLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE MOISTURE BAND PASSING TODAY
BUT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED NEXT 7-10
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 76 / 50 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 79 / 60 50 30 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ERODE BY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MAINTAINED A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
WAS NOW CROSSING THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE WESTWARDS AND EXIT THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND
AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW HOWEVER
QUICKLY MOVED THE ACTIVITY NORTHWEST AND SO FAR ONLY MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS DETECTED OR REPORTED IN ISOLATED AREAS. EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER LAND JUST AFTER SUNSET...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MODELS STILL SUGGESTING
DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BELOW 1.50 INCHES COMPARED
THE PRESENT VALUES WHICH RANGED BETWEEN 1.70 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PARTS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY EACH DAY...AS THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED WIND FLOW SHOULD
STEER CONVECTION TOWARDS THIS AREA. BY MID WEEK...THE CHANCE FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN INCREASE...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND DIGS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HELP INDUCE WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS
AND AGAIN INCREASE THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THIS MAY CAUSE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...BUT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
13/23Z...LEAVING ONLY ISOLD/SCT PASSING SHRA...MOSTLY OVER THE
WATERS...AFFECTING BRIEFLY TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SEAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND 5 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 88 / 30 40 20 40
STT 80 89 79 88 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Heavy rain has fallen in San Juan on this Sunday the 13th. This is in Old San Juan in front of El Morro fortress.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today thru Tuesday but the weather will turn wetter as a trough diggs southward from the north.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST MON OCT 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TODAY...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED DRY
AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINS OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT HAVE SUSTAINED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID-MORNING.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AS THIS FEATURE EVOLVES...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA UNTIL 14/16Z WITH ONLY FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AND TJSJ AFTER 14/16Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO
5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 89 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON OCT 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE KEPT THE
LOCAL AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THE ONLY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OBSERVED WAS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
TODAY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE DRY AIR MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING VALUES TO OVER 2
INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. WHEN THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND EN
ROUTE BETWEEN ISLANDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. FEW LATE AFTN
SHRA MAINLY OVER NW SECTION OF PR AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJBQ FM
14/19-14/21Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FM THE ESE AT 10-15 KTS WITH
OCNL HIGHER GUSTS. L/LVL WND BLO FL150 FM ESE 15-20 KTS...BCM LGT
AND VRB ABV AND UP TO FL300.


&&

.MARINE...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND SEAS UP
TO 17 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 88 / 20 20 20 50
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

No more mention of 98L in TWO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST MON OCT 14 2013

.UPDATE...FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK. THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BECOME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND USVI IN THE MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.