Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

Not me ... I'm fine with no rain in Austin for another week or so. My 9" last week was plenty!

Longer range forecasts for October per the CFSv2 and other comments I've seen online seem to suggest a warmer-than-normal month for much of Texas with drier-than-normal precipitation. Attention dhweather, please do not jump off the ledge after reading this!

However, I do believe El Nino will start to show itself in a stronger way come November. Then, of course, there is the matter of those ridiculously warm north Pacific ocean temps and what kind of Arctic high pressure "fun" they will produce later this fall downstream over the CONUS.

[texas1836]

Not me ... I'm fine with no rain in Austin for another week or so. My 9" last week was plenty!

Longer range forecasts for October per the CFSv2 and other comments I've seen online seem to suggest a warmer-than-normal month for much of Texas with drier-than-normal precipitation. Attention dhweather, please do not jump off the ledge after reading this!

However, I do believe El Nino will start to show itself in a stronger way come November. Then, of course, there is the matter of those ridiculously warm north Pacific ocean temps and what kind of Arctic high pressure "fun" they will produce later this fall downstream over the CONUS.

I'm looking forward to this . It's anyones guess at this point.

[dhweather]

Not me ... I'm fine with no rain in Austin for another week or so. My 9" last week was plenty!

Longer range forecasts for October per the CFSv2 and other comments I've seen online seem to suggest a warmer-than-normal month for much of Texas with drier-than-normal precipitation. Attention dhweather, please do not jump off the ledge after reading this!

However, I do believe El Nino will start to show itself in a stronger way come November. Then, of course, there is the matter of those ridiculously warm north Pacific ocean temps and what kind of Arctic high pressure "fun" they will produce later this fall downstream over the CONUS.

You mean the Faux-Nino? I'm far from sold on it happening. Warm and bone dry? Not in North Texas!

[South Texas Storms]

I miss the rain already too! I can never get tired of rain, I just love it too much!

Plus, areas to the southwest of Austin (San Antonio and the Hill Country) missed out on much of the heavy rain this past week. It would be nice for those areas to get in on the heavy rain action next time.

[Ralph's Weather]

Dense fog formed around my place this morning allowing temps to fall well into the 40s.

[Portastorm]

Not me ... I'm fine with no rain in Austin for another week or so. My 9" last week was plenty!

Longer range forecasts for October per the CFSv2 and other comments I've seen online seem to suggest a warmer-than-normal month for much of Texas with drier-than-normal precipitation. Attention dhweather, please do not jump off the ledge after reading this!

However, I do believe El Nino will start to show itself in a stronger way come November. Then, of course, there is the matter of those ridiculously warm north Pacific ocean temps and what kind of Arctic high pressure "fun" they will produce later this fall downstream over the CONUS.

You mean the Faux-Nino? I'm far from sold on it happening. Warm and bone dry? Not in North Texas!

You can be as far as you want from being sold on it happening ... but it is. Data supports it. Most likely a weak Nino but on the higher end of "weak." I tend to try and go with forecasts that data supports ... you know, science and stuff like that.

Go over to the ENSO updates thread and see for yourself.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We should get some strong Typhoons as well which could help bring warm water to our favorite warm pool near alaska. Im not sure when winter should kick off, but if they keep comparing it to 2009-2010, im not complaining my friend. Houston had their earliest snowfall ever that year and repeated cold snaps. I think that was the year when i was froze my toosh off at Christmas eve service because it was like 35 and REALLY windy Lol.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD this morning:

.THE FAR EXTENDED/NEXT WEEK/...
CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DO OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS THE
CURRENT STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S TRUDGES
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALSO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING BY MID WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW
THIS FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY BETS ON RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THEN...LOOK
FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
BREAKING THE RECORD FOR THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER STILL LOOKS PROBABLE
UNLESS MODELS SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

[TheProfessor]

We should get some strong Typhoons as well which could help bring warm water to our favorite warm pool near alaska. Im not sure when winter should kick off, but if they keep comparing it to 2009-2010, im not complaining my friend. Houston had their earliest snowfall ever that year and repeated cold snaps. I think that was the year when i was froze my toosh off at Christmas eve service because it was like 35 and REALLY windy Lol.

Yeah Late December 2009 Early January 2010 was brutal for North Texas, first we had the Christmas eve Blizzard and then a good portion of North Texas had ponds freeze over. I'm pretty confident Winter will be cold enough for some big winter storms but I'm still a bit concerned about precipitation potentials, especially if late fall isn't wet.

[Ntxw]

We should get some strong Typhoons as well which could help bring warm water to our favorite warm pool near alaska. Im not sure when winter should kick off, but if they keep comparing it to 2009-2010, im not complaining my friend. Houston had their earliest snowfall ever that year and repeated cold snaps. I think that was the year when i was froze my toosh off at Christmas eve service because it was like 35 and REALLY windy Lol.

Yeah Late December 2009 Early January 2010 was brutal for North Texas, first we had the Christmas eve Blizzard and then a good portion of North Texas had ponds freeze over. I'm pretty confident Winter will be cold enough for some big winter storms but I'm still a bit concerned about precipitation potentials, especially if late fall isn't wet.

Last fall was wet but winter was dry

[somethingfunny]

It feels like it's been a long time since we got any appreciable severe thunderstorms here in North Texas. I wish a few of these Autumn cold fronts could bring in a good old-fashioned warm sector squall line but I'm leaning toward betting against any of that this year.

With that said the weather today and all this week has been far too perfect for me to gripe in any way about it even if it is dry.

[Portastorm]

Heh, get a load of THIS from the 12z GFS! Could be a big front coming in early October:

[Ntxw]

It feels like it's been a long time since we got any appreciable severe thunderstorms here in North Texas. I wish a few of these Autumn cold fronts could bring in a good old-fashioned warm sector squall line but I'm leaning toward betting against any of that this year.

With that said the weather today and all this week has been far too perfect for me to gripe in any way about it even if it is dry.

I miss them too. This is a national problem its been tough getting severe weather (and tornadoes as result). The atmosphere seems too stable, Im thinking all the cool air dominance above isnt helping. Been going on for the past few years, can be seen in tornado count thread.

[dhweather]

It feels like it's been a long time since we got any appreciable severe thunderstorms here in North Texas. I wish a few of these Autumn cold fronts could bring in a good old-fashioned warm sector squall line but I'm leaning toward betting against any of that this year.

With that said the weather today and all this week has been far too perfect for me to gripe in any way about it even if it is dry.

Not unreasonable to bet against it. KFWD has issues eight tornado warnings this entire year. There have been days where they issued more than that.

[Tireman4]

Heh, get a load of THIS from the 12z GFS! Could be a big front coming in early October:

Umm Porta..did the PWC mets color this thing in?

[TheProfessor]

It feels like it's been a long time since we got any appreciable severe thunderstorms here in North Texas. I wish a few of these Autumn cold fronts could bring in a good old-fashioned warm sector squall line but I'm leaning toward betting against any of that this year.

With that said the weather today and all this week has been far too perfect for me to gripe in any way about it even if it is dry.

Not unreasonable to bet against it. KFWD has issues eight tornado warnings this entire year. There have been days where they issued more than that.

There have probably been hours that they've issued more than that.

[horselattitudesfarm]

When plane entrails stay in the sky you know it's cool weather!

I hope you mean 'Contrails' and not 'entrails' or else I'm running inside and hiding.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, out in West Texas it continues to rain, rain, rain. Lubbock was flooded last night after storms dumped several inches of liquid gold on already saturated grounds. The West Texas office of the PWC reported to HQ last night that areas in and around campus featured cars floating in roadways. Lubbock is something like 3-4" above normal for rainfall for the year. The playa lakes are filled to the brim and that should only enhance the duck/goose hunting coming up.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

The playa lakes are filled to the brim and that should only enhance the duck/goose hunting coming up.

I'll be telling them to head elsewhere!

[vbhoutex]

:wink:

When plane entrails stay in the sky you know it's cool weather!

I hope you mean 'Contrails' and not 'entrails' or else I'm running inside and hiding.

Me too!!!
Meanwhile in Houston it is 73f and cloudy. Cool by our standards for this time of year. Plenty of rain on radar moving in from the South but so far the dry air that appears to line up along I-10 seems to be winning out.