Texas Fall-2014

[ravyrn]

From our good friend, Steve McCauley:

I have come to the conclusion that the main problem with using the Stat Method of Weather Forecasting is that when it nails down a storm system over a week before it is expected to move into north Texas, the storm seems like it takes forever for it to get here! But Thursday is finally almost here, and our storm system, along with its attendant cold front, will be sweeping across north Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the Metroplex and up to half of all of north Texas !

Scattered storms will first fire Thursday afternoon just west and northwest of the Metroplex and then build south, eventually forming a solid line early Thursday evening as they cross the I-35 Corridor on their way to east and southeast Texas. Some - though not all - storms will be severe with hail, brief but very heavy rain, and strong straightline winds. We will be watching for any storm that manages to stay isolated from the line for the possibility of developing a rotating updraft which could lead to tornado spinup. But the line should form fairly quickly making straightline winds the main threat.

Rainfall amounts will range from a " I-waited-a-whole-week-to-get-just-a-trace," to locally over an inch or two in the heavier storms. And for those who get over an inch, that amount may come down in less than 30 minutes! It could be a blinding rain. For those who get just a trace or not so much as a single drop, you may want to start composing your tale of woe and disappointment to post to this page Thursday evening

But seriously, keep an eye to the skies tomorrow as we enter our secondary severe weather season here in north Texas. And for our talented photographers ... there should be quite an impressive line of thunderheads just east of the Metroplex after sundown Thursday, going off like some spastic array of light bulbs with frequent and intense lightning shooting out the sides and tops of the clouds!

[dhweather]

Looks like all of North Texas under a severe thunderstorm WATCH until 9PM tonight.

[dhweather]

SPC text:


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 515...WW 516...WW 517...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...MEAD

[dhweather]

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think this line of strong/severe thunderstorms will be missing you dhweather. Line looks to be filling in nicely. Enjoy!

[dhweather]

:uarrow: I don't think this line of strong/severe thunderstorms will be missing you dhweather. Line looks to be filling in nicely. Enjoy!

Boy I hope so. It's thicker and more solid from Denton northward, it gets more narrow and there are some breaks south of Denton. Hope it fills in very nicely before it gets here!

[gboudx]

Looking good so far dh. However, the squall line is always subject to parting just as it enters Rockwall county.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

LOL. The radar shows an hourglass shape of rain over Collin/Dallas. Guess which part of the storm will pass over my house? Yep, the narrowest part.

[Ellsey]

Gotten .53 inches in a fairly short amount of time. Pretty good rain out there. Also my back door blew open, but things seem okay other than that.

[TheProfessor]

Just as school gotvout we started getting 60-70 mph winds and small hail, everyone outside was running around panicking.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the storms are now moving out of DFW and into E TX along with their 70-80 mph winds. There appears to be some significant damage left behind in DFW. Any chance they weaken or at least the winds slack up as they move east?

[Ntxw]

That was quite a line of storms, some damage Arlington eastward.

[iorange55]

The strongest winds I have ever seen here in Cedar Hill. Lots of cleaning up to do.

[dhweather]

Lots of wind damage scattered around the metroplex, hope everyone is ok.

I recorded 0.35" of rain, which I will gladly take! We had gusts in the 50's and some sparse small hail, dime to nickel size.

[Portastorm]

Lots of wind damage scattered around the metroplex, hope everyone is ok.

I recorded 0.35" of rain, which I will gladly take! We had gusts in the 50's and some sparse small hail, dime to nickel size.

Better go buy a lottery ticket, tonight, pal.

Glad to hear it actually rained in Heath. Here's to many more events like that (except for the severe weather, of course).

[Portastorm]

So, I also saw this on Twitter earlier today ... hopefully today's rain did at least a little bit to ease this:

[dhweather]

So, I also saw this on Twitter earlier today ... hopefully today's rain did at least a little bit to ease this:

Ironic that looks somewhat like a hook echo return on radar.

[Ntxw]

So, I also saw this on Twitter earlier today ... hopefully today's rain did at least a little bit to ease this:

http://i61.tinypic.com/2la96dy.png

Today's rainfall probably didn't do much to dent it but of course we'll take any we can get. I'm checking some guidance and ontop of the usual suspects we've looked at for cool shot signals there is also hints of semi-permanent baja low setting up. I hope this verifies because with rising AAM it bodes well for the EPAC to pick up again.

Short term next few mornings will be quite pleasant across the state most in the 50s and daytime highs are seasonable 70s and low 80s. Some gorgeous October state fair weather this weekend.

[TheProfessor]

So, I also saw this on Twitter earlier today ... hopefully today's rain did at least a little bit to ease this:

Ironic that looks somewhat like a hook echo return on radar.

lol, I would not want to be in the path of a Tornado in that size of a hook echo!

[weatherdude1108]

Well, I thought the line was congealing down here. But I am watching it break up over the hill country before it gets here, yet they extended the severe storm watch until 3AM(??). They must be seeing something I am not. I don't want severe weather, but rain would be welcome. It has been exactly two weeks to the day that I have had measurable rain. Hmmm.