Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain brings 90L to the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico in the next couple of days. According to GFS,between 2-5 inches are possible in the islands so be aware of that.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO for 90L:

Up to 30%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become somewhat better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week. The low is
expected to move westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph,
and interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to
Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor its
progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.


2 PM TWO for 91L:

Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z models for 91L.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for 90L.

AL, 90, 2014101118, , BEST, 0, 166N, 548W, 25, 1010, LO

[cycloneye]

18z models.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS AS TUTT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WRF AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
BELOW TWO INCHES WITH A LIGHT STEERING FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ADDITIONAL
MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT....
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND USVI AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASS BY.

TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED
AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE REMAINS NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS LOCAL
ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TUTT...
NEAR NORMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW... EXPECT A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
FOLLOWED BY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJBQ...PRODUCING MVFR CONDS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL TIL EVENING
HOURS. AFT 12/23Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITE...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS STILL POSSIBLE AROUND TNCM AND TKPK. LOW
LEVEL WIND FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS...THEN BECOMING EASTERLY
AT 5-10 KT AFTER 11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY THEN STRENGTHEN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/P.R. TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET BACK IN 1980.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 80 88 / 10 10 60 60
STT 79 88 79 86 / 20 20 60 70

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13 min
What I think will be Gonzalo Plenty of rain coming for Puerto Rico, at the least

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO for 90L

Up to 50%


Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become better organized during the past several hours. Although
dry air may hamper development, the overall environment is
expected to be generally conducive, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
move westward at around 10 mph, and interests from the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rains and gusty winds are expected to move across the Leeward
Islands starting early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent


8 PM TWO for 91L

Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Gusty and fellow friends in Leewards,I think this will not be a false alarm as it looks like it will affect directly some of the islands so be prepared.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWO for 90L

Up to 50%


Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become better organized during the past several hours. Although
dry air may hamper development, the overall environment is
expected to be generally conducive, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
move westward at around 10 mph, and interests from the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rains and gusty winds are expected to move across the Leeward
Islands starting early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent


8 PM TWO for 91L

Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Gusty and fellow friends in Leewards,I think this will not be a false alarm as it looks like it will affect directly some of the islands so be prepared.

I go with you, preparations should begin now. 90L is becoming more more a possible threat for most of the Leewards...

[cycloneye]

8 PM Special Feature:

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS AT AROUND 350 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO
13N54W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THESE WAVE/LOW AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 54W-55W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OF
THIS SYSTEM IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014101200, , BEST, 0, 170N, 570W, 30, 1010, LO

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014


.DISCUSSION...THE 12/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLY MORE
MOISTURE THAN JUST 12 HOURS AGO...EVEN THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS TOTAL SHOWER AREA HAS DIMINISHED IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS CYCLING THROUGH PERIODS OF GROWTH AND DECAY AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WAVE OR LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NOW
ESTIMATES THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO BE 50
PERCENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME POPS WERE UPDATED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST WAS
NECESSARY. THIS WAS DONE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLY MORE WILL BE KNOWN
REGARDING THE STATUS OF THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLIES IN. IT IS EXPECTED THAT DECISIONS
REGARDING THE NECESSITY OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE MADE THEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. THE LAST ASCAT IMAGES REVEALED UP TO 25 KNOTS OF WIND
OVER THE TOP OF THE WAVE BUT NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 11/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL STORM FAY HAVE
KEPT SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH 6 TO 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043. WINDS
ARE UNCERTAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST AL90...BUT ASSUMING SOME ORGANIZATION SEAS WERE INCREASED
ABOUT 1 FOOT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FIRST 7 FOOT SEAS MAY BE
SEEN IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AS
EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FEET ARE
NOT FORECAST BUT SHOULD THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA SEAS COULD RISE TO AS MUCH AS 8 FEET BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL TRACK WWD NEXT 48
HRS PASSING OVR PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT. TUTT WILL THEN REMAIN
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EAST NORTHEAST
TODAY FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SUBSIDENCE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRES
EAST OF THE LEEWARDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF THE
LEEWARDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH HEAVY T-STORM ACTIVITY
CONSOLIDATING NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR 17.1N AND 57.1W. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHY IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A TC WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING OVER THE USVI AND NE PR MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA ON THE
TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN USVI. IN THIS
AREA...GEFS AND SREF MEANS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FOR ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE
MORNING. SATELLITE BASED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM THE NESDIS SCAMPR
ALGORITHM SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ONE INCH RAINFALL IN SIX HOURS.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT SOUND LIKE A WHOLE LOT...THIS ALGORITHM HAS A
SIGNIFICANT LOW BIAS FOR TROPICAL RAINFALL AND EVALUATION OF THIS
PRODUCT HERE AT THE WFO INDICATES THIS IS PLENTY OF RAINFALL
CONSIDERING THE LOW BIAS AND THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF THE
SATELLITE PIXEL. WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF PR WILL SEE RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT DON`T THINK THE AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH OR DURATION
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. ALSO...THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY AND SOILS CAN ABSORB A LOT OF WATER. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECON AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY
AND HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WATER NOT
ANTICIPATING TS WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR PR AT THIS TIME. IF
ANYTHING IT WOULD BE THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
(MARINE ZONE AMZ710). REGARDLESS...PEOPLE IN PR AND USVI SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM NEXT 48 HRS FOR ANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES.


REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
BACKSIDE OF TUTT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS OVER PR/USVI TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDS OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS/TJMZ. VCSH/VCTS AND
MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK DUE TO RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF TS CONDITIONS.
THE WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TUE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 82 88 77 / 10 50 80 80
STT 83 82 83 80 / 10 60 90 90

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 70%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands
has continued to increase and become better organized during the
past several hours. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form later today while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
move across the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014101212, , BEST, 0, 167N, 574W, 30, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

T numbers go up:

12/1145 UTC 16.6N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 90L

[cycloneye]

Local TV met said this on Twitter.

Ada Monzón @adamonzon · 5m 5 minutes ago
Ya sea como depresión o tormenta, podemos tener tiempo borrascoso sobre PR/IV lunes pm-martes pm. Cazahuracán determinará clasificación.

Translation:

Being a TD or Tropical Storm PR/VI can have very bad weather from Monday afternoon thru Tuesday afternoon.Plane will determine what we have.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook up to 90%-90%


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

This thread is made for those who live in the NE Caribbean Islands that may have a threat of a Tropical Depression or more stronger system in the next 24 thru 48 hours to post about observations,any local statements from the local NWS offices or government in the islands and more so post away.

[Gustywind]

This thread is made for those who live in the NE Caribbean Islands that may have a threat of a Tropical Depression or more stronger system in the next 24 thru 48 hours to post about observations,any local statements from the local NWS offices or government in the islands and more so post away.

Good job Luis , tkanks for posting that.