Texas Fall-2014

[dhweather]

0Z Euro has most of Texas bone freaking dry for the next 10 days.

In other words, the drought from hell continues.

[Ralph's Weather]

The forecast beyond early next week is very murky. Hopefully with the satellite issues resolved we can get a clearer picture this weekend. Just by looking at the teles I would not expect much cool weather or rain until mid-Nov. I am hoping that we get some rain for the middle of next week, but I am starting to seriously doubt the Halloween storm.

[Portastorm]

0Z Euro has most of Texas bone freaking dry for the next 10 days.

In other words, the drought from hell continues.

Yeah, I see that. The Euro does have a decent cold front advertised for around 10/31-11/1 ... but all the upper level energy is well removed from us so it would be a dry fropa.

Let's see how the models unfold this weekend. I gotta think the Pacific will be flexing its muscles again in our direction in the not-too-distant future. She's going to hammer the middle and upper West Coast in the next week with storminess. The jet is bound to buckle sooner or later.

[Ralph's Weather]

It looks like the EPO is going negative by around Halloween and you would think that the AO/NAO will go negative before mid-Nov.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The rain will come in due time.

Its still early for big cold though, remember its still Oct. There isnt even a solid PV yet. I am seeing positive things to look forward to though. I mentioned earlier in a post about a 5h Low being north of alaska, this could be key in pulling air from Siberia. Seeing this quite often in the runs but it needs to be paired with a -EPO and right now the EPO isnt tanking. No worries!For now, it looks like the snow pack is thickeing up which is nice. Also, the weather outside is beautiful, i love it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, we were just teased by the early season cold by the models. We need to enjoy Fall while it is here, Thanksgiving and winter will be here in a month.

[gboudx]

As srain mentions, stepping down. I just wish we weren't "stepping up" first. wxman57 will love this weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

This coming Monday will be two weeks since we got measurable rain (one inch on October 13th was last measurable rain) with highs consistently in the 80s. Granted not like the Summer, but this is usually our second wettest time of year.

I'm having to keep the water going once a week to keep the soil hydrated for the landscape in preparation for the first freeze in order to provide some protection to the roots (wet soil is like an insulator against the freezes), only because ole' Mother Nature ain't doin' her part right now.

Otherwise, happy Friday everyone! And if you can, wash and wax your vehicles! If anything, it looks like they will stay pretty for at least 10 days!

[weatherdude1108]

Better!

Bob Rose's forecast:

Looking at today's long-range forecast solutions, there are some indications the weather pattern will begin to change during the first week of November. The models indicate storm systems will be begin moving across our region more frequently and we should begin seeing more frequent periods of rain. I'll have more details about this in Monday's brief.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[JDawg512]

And just like that, 24 hours later EWX does a 180.

[Portastorm]

I'm fairly confident we'll soon see the impact of El Nino rear its head. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has averaged strongly negative the last 90 days at -8.1. Usually indices averaging -7 to -8 are pretty much guarantees that Nino will get busy warming up those eastern Pacific waters. I'd be surprised if we don't see a more active southern jet by mid November. The usual lag time is roughly 6-9 months for when we start seeing consistently negative values. In this case, it began in April.

[srainhoutx]

I'm fairly confident we'll soon see the impact of El Nino rear its head. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has averaged strongly negative the last 90 days at -8.1. Usually indices averaging -7 to -8 are pretty much guarantees that Nino will get busy warming up those eastern Pacific waters. I'd be surprised if we don't see a more active southern jet by mid November. The usual lag time is roughly 6-9 months for when we start seeing consistently negative values. In this case, it began in April.

Although climo tends to be against it, I would keep an eye on the EPAC for a landing falling tropical system along the W Coast of Mexico the first week of November. The global ensembles and operational guidance are suggesting a potential heavy rainfall event as a deep Western trough picks up some tropical remnants and brings plentiful rains in Northern Mexico in Texas. Nino is about to rear its head and shuffle the pattern with shorter wave lengths that bring increasing intrusions of colder air from Canada S and a convectively active sub tropical jet across the Desert SW into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I know its still pretty early but man do the next 16 days still look boring.

[South Texas Storms]

I know its still pretty early but man do the next 16 days still look boring.

I'm not sure what you're looking at, but the last few runs of the GFS have been showing at least 1 round of beneficial rainfall for much of Texas in the next 16 days.

[South Texas Storms]

Man, I really hope the 12z Euro verifies for the 7-10 day period. It shows a slow moving cut-off low to our west moving slowly east bringing much of the western half of Texas over 2 inches of rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

Man, I really hope the 12z Euro verifies for the 7-10 day period. It shows a slow moving cut-off low to our west moving slowly east bringing much of the western half of Texas over 2 inches of rainfall.

The GFS and Euro both have the remnants of likely EPAC Hurricane Vance making landfall along the W Coast of Mexico and spreading its moisture across the Lone Star State.

[weatherdude1108]

Please PLEASE!!

[weatherdude1108]

I'm DEFINITELY liking the "tune" of the last sentence from EWX. C'mon Nino!

FXUS64 KEWX 272034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HI RES ARW/NMM AND NAM12
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IF THIS PAN OUT. REGARDLESS...COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY WITH AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY NEAR THE MOIST AXIS AND STALLED
FRONT. EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY SURGE/FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW STREAMER TYPE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST). FORECAST MAY GET MORE INTERESTING BEYOND THE
7 DAY...DURING MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. STAY TUNED.

[Portastorm]

See ....?! Just like South Texas Storms and srainhoutx said it would.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm DEFINITELY liking the "tune" of the last sentence from EWX. C'mon Nino!

FXUS64 KEWX 272034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HI RES ARW/NMM AND NAM12
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IF THIS PAN OUT. REGARDLESS...COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY WITH AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY NEAR THE MOIST AXIS AND STALLED
FRONT. EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY SURGE/FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW STREAMER TYPE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST). FORECAST MAY GET MORE INTERESTING BEYOND THE
7 DAY...DURING MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. STAY TUNED.

YOU MAY GET SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BUT IT WON'T BE THE KIND YOU DESIRE!

NOR WILL IT COME....UNLESS MY ABILITY TO POST VIDEOS IS REINSTATED.

MY ARMY IS NOW IN PLACE AND MY LANDS ARE SLOWLY TURNING WHITE!

THE TIME IS QUICKLY APPROACHING:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14AlnOK9Wso

YOU *MAY* WIN THAT WHICH YOU MOST DESIRE...







BUT DO NOT DECEIVE YOURSELVES.....




THERE *WILL* BE A PRICE TO PAY !!!

IT'S UP TO YOU VBHOUTEX!!!