Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS RIDGE ALOFT COLLAPSES...A RELIEF TO THE
HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. THEREFORE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO IS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW AND BRIEF. OVERALL...DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

BASED ON NAAPS GUIDANCE...HAZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AFRICAN
DUST WILL IMPROVE TODAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF DUST WILL REACH
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR THRU AT LEAST TONITE...STILL LIKELY SAT
THO ISOLD SHRA IN AREA. WIND BLO FL100 SE 10-25 KT TO PERSIST
INTO SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 80 / 0 0 10 20
STT 88 79 88 79 / 0 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MOVES
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE TROUGH HOLDING NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MOVING
NORTHEAST ONCE REACHING HISPANIOLA THE SATURDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT HOLDS JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THE SATURDAY
AFTER NEXT. LITTLE MOISTURE IS SEEN AT MID LEVELS UNTIL AFTER 10
MAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS ABSORBED BY A HIGH THAT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND BECOMES STRONGER BY TUESDAY.
THIS HIGH MOVES EAST DURING THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
FORM A DEVELOPING LOW LATER IN THE WEEK THAT WILL STALL OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWERS...BUT SMOKE FROM SEVERAL FIRES WAS SEEN
ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR TODAY. MOISTURE IS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE AGAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION OR
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE UPSTREAM TO BRING SHOWERS...AND THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS REMAINS SMALL EVEN IN AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS...SUCH AS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONG WITH 30 KNOTS SEEN IN THE 01/12Z SOUNDING BELOW 6 KFT.
MODELS MAY BE BRINGING IN TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS IS STARTING TO BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS A FEW SHOWERS MAY
APPEAR IN THE TYPICALLY WET PLACES SUCH AS THE MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE LUQUILLO RANGE OVER THIS WEEKEND. IF
ANYTHING...EXPECTATIONS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR SHOWERS ANYWHERE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THIS
DOES NOT REPRESENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INHERITED.

IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
DIFFICULT TO SET OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RECORD HIGHS INCREASE TO 96
DEGREES BY 5 MAY AND 1000-850 MB FORECASTED THICKNESSES ARE COMING
DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL NOT EXCEED TODAYS READING ANYTIME
NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINING NEARBY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL PLAINS EAST OF
ARECIBO...AND THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
MORE THAN 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS DIMINISH...SEAS WILL ALSO COME DOWN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS IN THE MONA PASSAGE DIMINISH. SEAS
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WHEN NEW SWELL ARRIVE AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 80 92 / 0 0 20 20
STT 79 88 79 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some relief from the very warm temperatures and very dry conditions is expected but a return to that will occur next week with another big area of Sahara air Layer encompassing the Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY INTACT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HOWEVER...
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SHALLOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
THEN STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AND A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ARRIVES
WITH MODELS INDICATING DRYING OCCURRING ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS. OVERALL...DRY PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE MAY
POOL ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF DEEP TROUGH TO
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA MAY FORM AFT
0217 IN THE VCNTY OF JBQ. SFC WND CALM TO LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY SE WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND 15KT
AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THEN WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN UNDER BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TODAY WILL MITIGATE
THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT DUE TO HIGHER RH`S. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND
DESICCATE FUELS. IN FACT...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONSECUTIVE STREAK OF 6 DAYS WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS
ENDED YESTERDAY. THIS TIED JUN 20-26 1983 FOR THE LONGEST STREAK
OF RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 79 / 0 20 20 20
STT 88 79 87 78 / 0 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER ONE BY TUE-
THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR TODAY...BY MID AFTERNOON A FEW CLOUDS
WERE FORMING OVER NORTHWESTERN PR WITH THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTING
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ARECIBO AND UTUADO. TEMPERATURES
REACHED THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOOSES IT HOLDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...A DRY AND HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE ON PWAT VALUES
OVER THE AREA AFTER MAY 10...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFT FOR CIGS PSBL AT TIST AND TISX BTWN 03/04Z
AND 03/11Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS BLO
FL130 SE 5 TO 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4
FEET. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 92 79 92 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 87 78 87 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH TRADE WINDS
RETURNING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

NAAPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
ARRIVING ON TUESDAY...WITH MODELS INDICATING DRYING OCCURRING
ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. THEN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
AREA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF A TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 0317 IN THE VCNTY OF TJBQ & TJMZ. SFC
WND CALM TO LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SE WINDS AT 10-15
MPH WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT
03/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY AND BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING AND STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN REACH 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND DESICCATE FUELS. FIRE DANGER
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 78 91 / 20 10 0 10
STT 78 87 78 88 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING... FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO CANT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HAZY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WORK WEEK ALONG WITH FRESH WINDS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

RIDGING WILL COLLAPSE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 04/17 IN THE VCNTY OF TJBQ & TJMZ. WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFT 04/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WAVE MODELS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING. THEREFORE...DROPPED THE WAVE HEIGHT
TO REPRESENT ACTUAL CONDITIONS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 0 10 10
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH HISPANIOLA BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF CUBA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
AGAIN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEWER SHOWERS WERE DETECTED TODAY...AND THOSE
SHOWERS THAT DID APPEAR LASTED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW MINUTES.
GENERAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY
MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. THE MAJOR
CHANGE IS THAT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WEAK BETWEEN
850 MB AND 650 MB BEYOND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS ABOVE
1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE FALLEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY VCNTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RISES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AROUND CERTAIN PINCH POINTS FOR THE AIR
FLOW...MAINLY AROUND SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SOME
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 7 FEET MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 0 0 0 10
STT 78 87 78 88 / 10 10 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LIMITING THE SHOWER GENERATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE LOCATED OVER THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THIS WILL TIGHT THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LOCAL WINDS.


.DISCUSSION...A DRYING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY MINIMAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRY
PATTERN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GENERATE A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILD FIRES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RELIEF ON THIS DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AFTER SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WE ARE TO FAR AWAY TO KNOW HOW
MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MOST NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...PRODUCING HAZY
SKIES TODAY. ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 4 TO
5 FEET NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS SWELL SUBSIDE TODAY ATLANTIC WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REACH BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TODAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 10 0 10 10
STT 87 78 88 78 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH A
FEW FAIRLY INTENSE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN PR AND CAN AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT
THESE WILL NOT LAST LONG AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND CLOUDS
INCREASE TO MINIMIZE SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER BARELY MORE
THAN AN INCH WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND MAKE SHOWERS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL SAT...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS
A 700 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 15N/30W (HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE)
TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HELP TO DIRECT MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF
ANTILLES ABOUT 25N TOWARDS PR/USVI. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING THIS WAY ONCE THE 700 MB RIDGE AT 19N/45W DISSIPATES AND
THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 05/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ. A SAHARAN AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO WED. TRADE WINDS TO BE MAINLY IN FRESH CATEGORY WHICH
WILL KEEP SEAS CHOPPY AND FLIRTING AROUND 6 FEET SOME PLACES...
HIGHEST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PR AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 92 / 0 10 10 20
STT 77 87 77 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH`S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 0 0 10 10
STT 88 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS GFS
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER TO STAY UNDER 1.3 INCHES UNTIL
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. PROBABLY NO SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW
FOR WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOONS. NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE MON AS A WAVE MAY DRAW BETTER MOISTURE FROM ITCZ IN A WAVE
CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS JUST
COMING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE BUT
IT HAS A LONG JOURNEY TO SAY IT WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS HERE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SAHARAN AIR ARRIVING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING WILL BE IN
THE MIX TOO AND REMAINS TO SEE WHETHER THAT WILL REDUCE SHOWERS
EVEN MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AT
LEAST 05/22Z...DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED AS MODELS INDICATE
NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET IN IMMEDIATE AREA AND NO EVIDENCE TO
CONTRARY. WINDS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS THOUGH
SO 5 TO 6 FEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAD INTENDED TO KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS DUE VERY DRY FUELS AND STIFF WINDS BUT LOW
HUMIDITY NEVER MATERIALIZED WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW. HUMIDITY
IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER EVEN MORE ATTM. SO CANCELLED THE RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 91 / 0 10 10 10
STT 78 87 78 86 / 0 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BECOMES
DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNDER PRESSURE FROM CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND GENERALLY HOLD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM 24HRS AGO AND GENERALLY HOLD ONTO
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE A DAY LONGER. AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES EWD TO THE NORTH OF PR BY MID NEXT WEEK...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS TO COLLAPSE WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FINALLY
ERODING ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THESE
FVRBL CONDITIONS APPEAR THAT WILL ONLY LAST A DAY OR TWO AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT PUTTING
LOCAL AREA BACK INTO AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. WEST/NW PR
WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THESE SHOWERS DUE TO FVRBL ESE/SE
STEERING FLOW. THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
-9.5C SUGGESTING SOME ROBUST CONVECTION IS LIKELY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT
VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. BRIEF PERIODS OF ISLD SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST PR IN THE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER 14Z AND
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER NW PR.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIMINISH MID
NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...07/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM NEARLY 24 HRS AGO AND 24-HR RH TRENDS
SHOW RH`S RUNNING ABOUT 5% HIGHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SOME MOISTENING SO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WX CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SO NO RED FLAGS WILL BE ISSUED.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS SHOW BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...A WELL-KNOWN CRITICAL FIRE WX PATTERN IN THE WRN US
WHILE AT THE SFC AND MID-LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN IS TO GENERALLY
HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING A VERY DRY WX PATTERN. THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH
HOLDS OR EVENS STRENGTHENS. WHILE SFC RH`S ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW RFW CRITERIA...STRONG WINDS...VERY DRY FUELS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AMIDST MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN FIRE
WX BEHAVIOR AND COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 86 78 / 10 0 10 10
STT 79 79 79 79 / 0 0 10 10

[wyq614]

Surface trough continue producing rain in central part of Cuba, yesterday diurnal convection was seen in interior part of western Cuba but failed to reach Havana downtown area. Thunder was heard in Havana without precipitation.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
CLOSE TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS A DRY AND HAZY
AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND THEREAFTER. THUS A MORE
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
THESE CHANGES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 2.0 BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL FLYING TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS
OF ISOLATED SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST PR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS UNTIL 22Z...DIMINISHING AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIMINISH MID NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 87 / 0 0 10 10
STT 79 79 79 80 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
208 PM AST FRI MAY 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US SEABOARD MOVES CLOSE TO THE
REGION. CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS A DRY AND HAZY
AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...FINALLY
WEAKENS. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SEABOARD APPROACHES TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AND THEREAFTER. THUS A MORE UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THESE CHANGES WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 2.0 BY
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DRY AND HAZY AIRMASS
WILL AGAIN ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR PSBL AFT 09/06Z TNCM DUE TO CIGS. HZ
DUE SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM.
SHRA INCRG AFT 09/08Z MAINLY OVER LCL WATERS...BUT REMAIN VERY
ISOLD. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 KT DIMINISHING AFT 08/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 77 86 77 86 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

A relief from the dry conditons is coming from today thru next Tuesday.Let's see how much rain falls.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST SAT MAY 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A BAND OF HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT WAS VERY LIMITED...WITH A FEW AND BRIEF SHOWERS DETECTED
OVER ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MORNING
ISLD-SCT SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE TRADE WINDS WERE DETECTED BY THE
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM
PASSING NEAR THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN USVI. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE USVI
AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR...BUT RAINFALL WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. A
RELIEF FROM SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
MODELS SUGGEST A NEW INCURSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

MID TO UPPER CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD BUT AT THE SAME TIME SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE
CAP INVERSION WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY.
THEREFORE...ISLD TO SCT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS PERIOD ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH DAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK AND INCREASES THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISLD TSTMS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
WINDY WITH EAST WINDS 15G25KT.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. BUOYS ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 4-5 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. RINCON
BUOY 41115 WAS AT 2 FEET JUST BEFORE 5 AM AST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BELOW 3 FEET THRU THE FCST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 86 77 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT MAY 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AS TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER
THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM AFFECTING SAINT THOMAS AND
E PR EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER NW
PR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWAT NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECT TO PRODUCE SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE EXPECT BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER W PR EACH AFTERNOON. BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS A RESULT...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE MID WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SAL REACHES THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT
VIS/CIG OK. FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF TKPK AND TNCM. LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10-20 KT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SUN MAY 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE THRU MID
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GAGES REPORTING JUST BELOW 0.30 INCHES OVER SAN
LORENZO AND LAS PIEDRAS...AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PR. ALSO...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PR. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. IN THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR WITH ISLD/SCT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
ALSO...STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE USVI.

IN GENERAL...AS UPPER RIDGE ERODES PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT EACH DAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE BRISK EASTERLIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR EACH DAY AT LEAST THRU MID WEEK. AEROSOL MODELS
SUGGEST A NEW INCURSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH CIGS BKN040 AND A BKN DECK AT
15KFT. SCT SHOWERS MOST TAF SITES XCPT JPS WITH POSSIBLY EVEN A T-
STORM AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH EAST WINDS 15G25KT. DRIER ON
MONDAY AND STILL WINDY. SAHARAN DUST HAZE WILL START ENTERING THE
LOCAL AREA MON NIGHT AND COVER THE ENTIRE REGION TUE WITH VSBY
REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 6-9SM. WINDS DIMINISH MID WEEK ON.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 30 20 30
STT 87 78 87 78 / 40 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN MAY 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AS TROUGH TO
THE WEST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS NOTED OVER USVI...E PR
AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW PR. THIS ACTIVITY OVER
NW PR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.

SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT...ERODING RIDGE ALOFT AND BRISK TRADES
WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND E PR IN
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER W AND NW PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT...COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS A NEW AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOISTURE REACHING IT MAXIMUM. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE A BIT...BUT LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER SAL. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH AXIS
MOVES AWAY WITH FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A LAYER OF MID-UPPER CLOUDS WITH BKN CIGS BTWN 070
AND 15KFT...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. SCT
PASSING SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES XCPT JPS AND ISOLD
TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS AT 15 TO
20 KT AND BRIEF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO MID WEEK. CHOPPY SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 30 20 30 30
STT 78 87 78 87 / 30 20 20 20