Texas Spring-2015

#1721 Postby **opticsguy** » Mon May 25, 2015 6:54 am

Each HRRR run is looking nastier and nastier for DFW. The same for the 4K NAM (plus QPF of 3+ inches).

I've been trying to fly my little plane VFR from Green Bay to Dallas since the 10th of May. I gave up and flew back commercial. Hopefully the 2nd week of June it will stop raining.

Not an official forecast.

#1722 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 7:08 am

Even the GFS short range is showing 3+ inches of rain. This will be an MCS and the short guidance is not as far south heavy like NWS FW is thinking with qpf.

WeatherGuesser · #1723 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Mon May 25, 2015 7:45 am

A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast today into tonight across portions of central and eastern Texas and southern Oklahoma. More isolated severe weather is expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as across parts of the central Plains into the middle Missouri Valley

#1724 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 8:14 am

Flash flood watches again for a large chunk of the state. These watches have been about as permanent as heat advisories were in summer of 2011 :lol:

Link again to the Texoma cam. Not a trickle, new waterfall we got. I saw it in 07 and this beats it. Lake Lewisville is also beginning to overflow it's spillway.

http://www.kxii.com/livestream

TeamPlayersBlue · #1725 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon May 25, 2015 8:44 am

HRRR looks pretty mean for Dallas. Some rain for Central Texas. Looks like the system still wont clear out completely though. More possible tomorrow.

#1726 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon May 25, 2015 8:48 am

It's bad enough to have a terrible deja vu while we are only under a slight risk. Now we're under a moderate!

#1727 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 8:49 am

Update on El Nino, no official update today from the CPC due to memorial day but the readings are in. It strengthened to 1.1C we are now well within moderate threshold which is very rare so early in the year. To compare the two most recent moderate El Nino (2002, and 2009) peaked at 1.3C and 1.6C around December of those years respectively when ENSO is at it's strongest. Only a few El Nino's have been this strong this early being 1905, 1987, and 1997 (a little uncertain on 1972 lack of data). Whatever the pattern is will likely intensify as the year goes on.

#1728 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 8:53 am

TheProfessor wrote:It's bad enough to have a terrible deja vu while we are only under a slight risk. Now we're under a moderate!

The moderate upgrade is likely for the potential high confidence Derecho/MCS that may form. High winds and maybe fast spin ups along the line

Here is the discussion from the SPC for our region on the moderate risk

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS. MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

#1729 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon May 25, 2015 9:03 am

Lets just hope discrete supercells don't form. Not only is that a higher tornado threat, but Super cells followed by a large mcs is going to lead to serious flooding.

#1730 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 9:32 am

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: Lets just hope discrete supercells don't form. Not only is that a higher tornado threat, but Super cells followed by a large mcs is going to lead to serious flooding.

HRRR has been showing some lone cells to the SW counties moving northeast ahead of the line into the mod risk area. Worth watching I agree. For everyone high winds and flooding is pretty much a go.

#1731 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 9:44 am

And not to forget central Texas they too are in it. While coverage at first confidence isnt high that region can have some big supercells and eventually flooding as well. I know the San Marcos area does not want to see training storms.

#1732 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Mon May 25, 2015 9:55 am

@News4SA: BREAKING: Tornado kills ten in border town of Acuna http://t.co/3Fxvyd6kDD #LiveOnNews4SA Pics: Del Rio Comm. Spotlig http://t.co/jcjjQalMLZ

#1733 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Mon May 25, 2015 9:56 am

Violent tornado hit the border town south of Del Rio this morning.

#1734 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:22 am

I saw some images (though not sure of sources reliability) but damage resembles high end EF3 or EF4. Not certain of building codes in Mexico however to justify.

#1735 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:27 am

Lots of badly smashed up vehicles too, definitely has the look of an EF-3 or EF-4.

#1736 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:34 am

Tornado watch likely coming soon, showers are staring to develop out ahead of the mcs as well.

#1737 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:52 am

Tornado Watch for the Austin/San Antonio area..

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TORNADO WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-252100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0210.150525T1400Z-150525T2100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP
BEXAR BLANCO BURNET
CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT
DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

Website · #1738 Postby **Brent** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:57 am

SUMMARY...A LARGE BOW ECHO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL RACE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD...DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE BOW WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

#1739 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon May 25, 2015 10:59 am

Suns out here, that will help increase instability.

aggiecutter · #1740 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon May 25, 2015 11:41 am

Todd Warren NBC 6
53 mins ·
Water streaming over spillway at Broken Bow lake causing major flooding. From NWS:
AT 1030 AM CDT...FLOOD WATERS ARE SPILLING OVER THE SPILLWAY AT BROKEN BOW RESERVOIR ON THE MOUNTAIN FORK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING DEVELOPING ON THE MOUNTAIN FORK THROUGHOUT TODAY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
THE MOUNTAIN FORK BELOW BROKEN BOW RESERVOIR INCLUDING BEAVER BEND STATE PARK.
* MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MOUNTAIN FORK THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
If you know of anyone at who maybe camping at Beaver's Bend State Park this weekend, let them know!!!

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