Texas Fall-2015

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Ntxw
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Re: Re:

#661 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:38 am

TheProfessor wrote:Ah Ok, well hopefully an EPAC storm can develop. soon then.


What you were saying is good though it does have merit. The players are bit different here, the same phenomenon does occur without direct Hurricane hits with moisture being drawn up, happens with EPAC systems all the time just not from the Atlantic side
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Re: Re:

#662 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:39 am

Ntxw wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:Why is the death cockroach inferno ridge having this much of an influence given time-of-year climatology and current ENSO conditions?????? I am SO LOST.


We tongue in cheek comment the ridge of death, but it isn't the cause. It is the gulf of Alaska trough or extension of the Aleutian low being too strong eastward. This floods the US with warmth. While that is warm for us, up north it is even warmer relative to average. So if you are not underneath the ULL and cool rain you are heating up with everyone else

For instance take Fargo, North Dakota. They could be seeing blizzards and hard freezes in October but it's going to push 80! And the GFS has them in the 85-88 range

:uarrow:
Thanks for clearing that up Ntxw. I tend to miss the "bigger picture" sometimes and forget the perspective shot. I'm just frustrated. I let my weather emotions get the better of me, again.
:wink:
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Re: Re:

#663 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:43 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:Thanks for clearing that up Ntxw. I tend to miss the "bigger picture" sometimes and forget the perspective shot. I'm just frustrated. I let my weather emotions get the better of me, again.
:wink:


Oh believe me I'm just as frustrated weatherdude, I honestly would take a ridge of death locally than the broadscale for long term. I still have in the back of my mind that the Nino could ruin winter, and all this warmth and dry weather isn't helping
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#664 Postby gboudx » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:49 am

I'm just hoping the rain starts again. At this point, I don't care if it's warmer than average; let's just get rain.
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Re:

#665 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:50 am

Ntxw wrote:Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972


Hmmm.... I just pulled up climo for October 1972 and it's kind of striking how similar it looks through next week. Cold front early in the month, near record warmup towards mid month as mentioned, no rain til after the 20th with a cooldown before that, and it still wound up raining over 5" that month... more than half of it in the last week.

:think:
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Re: Re:

#666 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:58 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972


Hmmm.... I just pulled up climo for October 1972 and it's kind of striking how similar it looks through next week. Cold front early in the month, near record warmup towards mid month as mentioned, no rain til after the 20th with a cooldown before that, and it still wound up raining over 5" that month... more than half of it in the last week.

:think:


My fav analog if i remember correctly. I geeked out and looked at multiple analogs for about 5 hours one night a month ago. I looked at the 1800's which had some big nino's too. Those were interesting. This warm water off mexico is concerning me though. A ridge there would bring us NW flow? Or would it cut off our supply of moisture from the pacific?
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Re: Re:

#667 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:14 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Curious though the models are forecasting low to mid 90s for DFW Tues-Thurs of next week. Record high's around the 15th are, 92/93/95 held in 1999 and 1972


Hmmm.... I just pulled up climo for October 1972 and it's kind of striking how similar it looks through next week. Cold front early in the month, near record warmup towards mid month as mentioned, no rain til after the 20th with a cooldown before that, and it still wound up raining over 5" that month... more than half of it in the last week.

:think:


My fav analog if i remember correctly. I geeked out and looked at multiple analogs for about 5 hours one night a month ago. I looked at the 1800's which had some big nino's too. Those were interesting. This warm water off mexico is concerning me though. A ridge there would bring us NW flow? Or would it cut off our supply of moisture from the pacific?


As far as the current mess of a pattern goes, someone was talking about there was a blocking ridge over the southern plains that's why this ULL is going to retrograde and the heat return(and not just return for Texas, but go all the way to Canada and Chicago at least for a day or two)... I'd have to defer to someone who has more knowledge though for more details.
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#668 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:36 pm

I will say this, look into western Canada. The firehose (Hurricane OHO) aimed at North America. When the GOA floods North America with a jet that strong, source region doesn't get cold. That's what we do not want to continue through winter, you want ridging up there. That's probably what's defying the AO

Image

Over the past two months the GOA warm pool has been beaten back to the Aleutians

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .anim.html

This is the difference between weak/moderate El Nino's and the very strong ones. The weaker ones don't have the power to push the Aleutian lows into the gulf of Alaska.
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#669 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:46 pm

Been very busy so I have not had a chance to study up on the winter yet. Are there any good analogs to what looks to be a strong Nino and a -AO, I have always doubted much -EPO this winter and it looks like that may be justified by the current pattern. Is this going to be a Europe only winter with a constant GoA low? We should get in on the rain eventually though the cold may only be sporadic when we get a temporary -EPO.
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#670 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:54 pm

Here is a reanalysis of September. The explanation for a top 10 warmest is clear as day. Low heights (+EPO) in NW North America

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#671 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:10 pm

Good lord, this is just sad. 90's and NO RAIN per the 1Z GFS.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#672 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:22 pm

dhweather wrote:Good lord, this is just sad. 90's and NO RAIN per the 1Z GFS.

Image


I hope the GFS is just dead wrong like it was for Joaquin. :P Is that crap even possible in mid-October? :(

Weatherbug continues to have for DFW next week:

88 Sunday
92 Monday
87 Tuesday
84 Wednesday
80 Thursday

I dunno where it's getting it from but it needs to verify. :P

The Weather Channel's app looks like a copy-paste of the GFS... full on summer.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#673 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:34 pm

Brent wrote:I hope the GFS is just dead wrong like it was for Joaquin. :P Is that crap even possible in mid-October? :(

Weatherbug continues to have for DFW next week:


Yes, sad but possible. Tomorrow, last year, the high was 98F. Mid month it was 89F on the 16th and was 88 for a couple of days around the 25th. In 2013 it was 93 on the 12th...in 2012 it was 89F on the 21st...just wrong

So high's like that do occur every year, however lows in 70s in October is rather unusual
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#674 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:I hope the GFS is just dead wrong like it was for Joaquin. :P Is that crap even possible in mid-October? :(

Weatherbug continues to have for DFW next week:


Yes, sad but possible. Tomorrow, last year, the high was 98F. Mid month it was 89F on the 16th and was 88 for a couple of days around the 25th. In 2013 it was 93 on the 12th...in 2012 it was 89F on the 21st...just wrong

So high's like that do occur every year, however lows in 70s in October is rather unusual


Well I get that it's normal to have a couple 90s in October but not a full week's worth daily or whatever...

Record high minimums are 74 on the 12th, 73 on the 13th, 72 on the 14th, and 74 on the 15th.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#675 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:08 pm

From the twittersphere

Image
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#676 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:08 pm

Euro is similar to the GFS kind of stuck where we are through the weekend then heat up next week. At the end of it's run though the "Polar vortex" is sending winter into the states :lol:

Edit: dhweather beat me to it :uarrow:
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#677 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:12 pm

I don't think any model is super accurate more than 3 days out, 5-6 at best.

That said, whoa Nellie, that is impressive for October. Lets see if that verifies........
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#678 Postby TexasStorm » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:23 pm

Wouldn't a vortex that far east in Canada mean a glancing blow of cold for North Texas? If any cold at all. Or at least make it very progressive where it doesn't last long.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#679 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:27 pm

dhweather wrote:From the twittersphere

Image



:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

I'm about done taking models seriously beyond 5 days out... maybe they'll be wrong with the heat. Certainly were wrong with the rain...
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#680 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:43 pm

So with the warm pool a bit further west and north, (north is important,) Does this set up the possibility of heights poking up into the arctic circle, or will it feed the GOA low? Hopefully not the latter. One thing i need to understand more is how nino effects the 500 MB heights during certain months. It seems like October, a huge GOA low is common, at least compared to 1972.

We were talking about '72 earlier as well in compares to this year as well. I noticed very little preicp for Houston in the Nov-Dec months, but in January we had 11.xx" of precip. Lots of BIG cold shots too in all winter months.
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