Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS about the same for peninsula Florida with FRI night being the coldest night. Seems the extreme SE coast stays noticeably warmer than the rest of the state as dew points stay up due to a slight east component to the wind:

[psyclone]

My NWS forecast still shows a 60 degree high on Friday and 65 on Saturday. those are well below normal temps. While I enjoy shots of hoodie/sweatshirt weather this is about as cold as I want to go...especially when short days/anemic sun angle is taken into account. And it certainly represents a dramatic shift from last December. I like it warm...it just kills me to have to spend anything to keep warm (heating the house) after we've spent a fortune over the Summer months trying to keep cool.

[Patrick99]

It's been really warm and humid in Miami.....near summer-like. As has been typical the last several years, the AC is getting no reprieve. It's getting to be a little ridiculous. These so called "cool downs" that plunge temps into the 60s for 1 night are having absolutely no effect.

This is the new normal, it seems. It's not the fact that it's this warm....it's the fact that it's this warm, for such long periods of time, during fall and winter.

[TheStormExpert]

Where's your holiday spirit Florida!?

Anyways, looking less and less promising with the cold front coming through Late Thursday/Early Friday. Tomorrow it is forecasted to be in the mid-upper 80's for highs, yuck!

[gatorcane]

Yeah the front is looking less and less impressive as we get closer to this event. No doubt it is going to feel quite cold especially across Central and Northern Florida but now it looks like Central Florida may only bottom out in the mid 40s instead of possibly mid 30s the models were showing last week for this event. The core of the cold looks to pass Florida to the north.

[psyclone]

This looks more like the quick cool shot we got back in November... a very transient shot of cool with less impact as you head south. Meanwhile, both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal temps over the peninsula. But, unlike last year we have colder than normal temps across the northland which should get a good snowpack going up there and that could lay the foundation for better chances for cold as we head deeper into the cold season.

[Patrick99]

On those recent GFS maps, it looks like there is a significant oceanic influence that will be keeping us warm in SFL. There's got to be a core of very warm water just off our coast and in the Bahamas that's behind this.

[northjaxpro]

Talk about an extremely much needed blessing received from Mother Nature this morning. I measured 3.8.inches of rainfall at my house so far today.

By far the most rain received measured since Matthew.

Also, still on track here to have a light freeze for Saturday morning. Lows expected in the upper 20s interior colder North Florida locale. Here at.my house (near Jax airport) lows expected to be from 30-32 degrees.

[psyclone]

skimpy line of showers coming into west central fl right now. unlike the jackpot in north florida this won't deliver much. ahead of the line it's 82 with a 75 degree dewpoint right now at St Pete Clearwater airport and we've had no sun today. incredible.

[gatorcane]

This arctic front now looks like basically a non-event for SE Florida with lows only cooling to the low 60sF. It did look for a while like the front could usher in 50sF into the SE Florida metro with 40sF interior.

[TheStormExpert]

This weather is really sickening and ridiculous for this time of year. Currently the temperature is 77* with a Dew Point of 74* at 10pm at night!

Meanwhile places in the Panhandle of Florida will be dealing with the brunt of this so-called arctic front. I know where I'm moving to one day.

[TheStormExpert]

This arctic front now looks like basically a non-event for SE Florida with lows only cooling to the low 60sF. It did look for a while like the front could usher in 50sF into the SE Florida metro with 40sF interior.

This reminds me of the front that came through in the wee hours of Christmas morning 2014. Originally that front too was looking to pack a punch only to diffuse/stall out over us and make for a dreary Christmas Day that year.

[NDG]

Greetings from Buffalo NY, second week in a row coming up here. Weird that up to today there has not been a significant snowfall event in this area, which is forecasted to change over the next few days thanks to the Arctic airmass coming across the northern US, but the coldest temps will stay to the west & north of this area.
As for FL, don't buy any freezing temp forecasts from the models until the NAO goes way negative with the PNA positive, otherwise they will be nothing but drive by cold fronts.

[psyclone]

the lake Erie mega band looks to set up in the buffalo south towns down toward ski country. With the lake so warm some thunder and several inch per hour snowfall rates are likely in the jackpot zones where 2'+ totals are likely. I'm a northeast ohio native and have seen lake erie deliver the goods with 6" per hour rates. it is epic. Hopefully you'll cash in...looks like a close shave for Buffalo proper.

[TheStormExpert]

Several recent GFS runs have basically all of the Arctic air masses missing the Peninsula Florida by a long shot. This pattern is really La Niña like with a warm Southern half of the lower 48 and cold northern half.

Latest 12z Euro run has the SE Ridge really flexing it's muscles 9-10 days out with a ridge along the East Coast and a trough in the Western U.S.

Hope y'all like the usual Florida heat and humidity because it may be here to stay awhile after this weekend.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep I see the models keeping the cold air up north. Maybe the second half of Dec. will get some cool shots. I don't put much emphasis on the ensembles but CPC shows NAO/AO possibly going neg. mid to late dec. I won't even post it cause it changes on a dime.

[NDG]

No help from the PNA for you cold wx lovers, the core of the Arctic shots over the next few days will be staying to the north & west of FL, back to near 80 here in Orlando by Sunday, making my co-workers up in Buffalo very jealous

[psyclone]

December vacationers looking for warmth in Florida look to hit the jackpot the next couple of weeks with above normal temps and below normal precip returning and hanging around for the foreseeable future. Works for me. Now that normal highs for central florida are down in the low 70's I find myself rooting for temps a bit above normal... 75-80 for highs with 55-60 or so for lows...is exactly why I put up with July/August..

[northjaxpro]

Well, got lucky this morning at my home as north to northeast winds stayed up to keep mixing at the surface to prevent a freeze here. Currently 37.4 degrees. Areas just to my west and north farther inland temperatures are at or just below freezing at this hour as the wind in those areas are light .

The warm-up begins in earnst today as return flow already sets in as the Polar High north of the peninsula moves off to the east and we will be near 80 degrees by Monday. For those of us who like the cold weather for the holidays, well it appears we may be looking at a similar pattern we had last year across the peninsula and the Southeast U.S. The models are now indicating that the NAO will trend back to a positive phase leading into the period at least up to Christmas Day. The dreaded SE ridge looks to return to block the real cold air from entering this part of the country.

[gatorcane]

Yep that dreaded SE ridge looks like it will rear its ugly head again as we head into the holidays. But is should make for some nice and warm (but not hot) conditions for Florida, exactly why we we put up with the oppressing summers and why the snowbirds flock. Perhaps towards the end of December and into January, the pattern will change to allow more cold. The state has been going on I believe 7 years since the last really cold and damaging arctic blast. At some point the luck has to run out.