Texas Summer 2017

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#221 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:53 pm

starsfan65 wrote:Where is this system in the Gulf going?


Most likely either the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana at least as of right now.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#222 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:56 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Where is this system in the Gulf going?


Most likely either the upper TX coast or SW Louisiana at least as of right now.


Seems like a good call. Most likely it could be sheared so the eastern flank gets most of the weather while west side is dry like Lee in 2011 if is upper TX coast. Ideally if you want rain we need a mid TX coast (Corpus to Matagorda Bay) landfall moving west/nw and fusing with incoming front. That would produce widespread rainfall.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#223 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:57 pm

From HGX AFD

Afternoon AFD from HGX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Major question of the forecast is obviously Potential Tropical
Cyclone 3, located north of the Yucatan Peninsula, currently given
an 80 percent chance of development in the next couple of days by
NHC. At this time, think any developing storm will be heavily
sheared with most impacts to our east. However, any western
deviation in track would begin to slide impacts into our area - it's
a close call, so continue to monitor the forecast.


.SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Through tomorrow, the typical summertime pattern should reign for
most of the area, though by Tuesday afternoon falling heights aloft
should help allow for increased convection over the Gulf waters and
potentially the immediate coast. In the meantime, very isolated
activity along the seabreeze is possible into the evening hours
before the loss of sun wanes activity.


.MEDIUM TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The most impactful portion of the forecast is also the most
uncertain. Fortunately, the guidance envelope has shrunk today.
Still, the west outliers come ashore around Galveston Bay, so we are
not totally out of the woods yet. If we were to assume a west
outlier landfall, the storm should still be heavily sheared to the
east, keeping much of the impacts east of the Houston metro.

The forecast is based off of a very reasonable track presented
through collaboration with NHC and WPC, which occurs even more to
the east of our area. Some borderline likely PoPs crop up late
Wednesday along our eastern border, but the vast majority of the
area will see a chance of rain or drier. Similarly, it may be a bit
breezy our of the northeast on the west side of the cyclone, but
nothing excessive - it may be not even be quite at a level that
would necessitate a wind advisory.

Now, with all that said, we still lack a true center, which makes
model guidance considerable more unreliable that usual, as specific
models may or may not accurately determine where the eventual center
will take hold. If you've been watching the satellite (especially G-
16) today, you've seen multiple little whorls near or ejected from
the convective mass over the Gulf. None so far have taken as a more
dominant center of circulation. Once a more dominant center emerges,
guidance should become more reliable. Until - and even after - then,
continue to monitor the forecasts, and still stand ready to take
necessary precautions in case of a move to the west, as rainfall of
6 to 8 inches or more will be possible in such an instance.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Now, regardless of guidance, this potential TC looks to accelerate
northeast of the area Friday, leaving us with a return to a more
typical June atmosphere. The big change from the past several days,
however, is that the southwestern US ridge will be weaker, and
though the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be working to build
westward, it will largely set up deep onshore flow, which should
boost precipitation potential. So, rather than the very dry weather
we've seen lately, scattered showers and storms should again return
to be more the rule. The retreat of the southwestern US ridge should
also result in slightly cooler temperatures, with highs closer to 90
degrees than the middle 90s.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#224 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:05 pm

This rain miser hates to be pessimistic about rain but I've seen this morning and afternoon's scenario play out too many times before to know what was going to happen...

Starts off at sunrise, you wake up and check the radar to see a large complex of storms moving at a pretty good clip right down the I-35 corridor. Then as the morning wears on, like a bad joke, the complex hits more stable air and a capped environment just as it's starting to move into Williamson County. For a little while it looks like it may try to push through but then you notice that the leading edge is dissipating along an invisible wall. By early afternoon the complex really begins to break down to the point that once the remnants make it into Austin, there's barely any rain left.

Can't say how many times we've seen that scenario play out over the years.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#225 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:09 pm

starsfan65 wrote:Where is this system in the Gulf going?


As of right now, they think this way.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#226 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:13 pm

Oh well, hopefully this weekend into early next week we can get in on some rain.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#227 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:37 pm

Also if 93L moves in east of us, subsidence will likely lower late week rainfall chances outside of the Sabine River watershed. But the front will still come with cooler air but less if any rain.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#228 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:Also if 93L moves in east of us, subsidence will likely lower late week rainfall chances outside of the Sabine River watershed. But the front will still come with cooler air but less if any rain.

So we might not get a lot of rain from this system. It is still days away from landfall things could change.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#229 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:44 pm

Yeah for DFW I'm more interested in the depth of the front than widespread rainfall but maybe we'll get both

The gfs has shifted into Texas now(it was in florida 2 days ago) and actually has some light rain reaching the 35 corridor so I guess we'll see
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#230 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:22 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#231 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:02 pm

GFS keeps shifting west, DFW(especially Dallas east) gets into the edge of the action this run Thursday Night(still mostly east but its literally a couple counties east now)

Also keeps temperatures way down Thursday and maybe Friday too in advance of the weekend front.

On another note the 12z Euro had record low maximums threatened again at DFW next Monday/Tuesday 76 Monday and 80 Tuesday
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#232 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:12 am

The 00Z ECMWF has a Galveston landfall and then goes up right through Galveston Bay and has a direct hit on the eastern parts of Houston. It appears to me that the ridge is slightly stronger pushing it further west in this run.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#233 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:48 am

Cpv17 wrote:The 00Z ECMWF has a Galveston landfall and then goes up right through Galveston Bay and has a direct hit on the eastern parts of Houston. It appears to me that the ridge is slightly stronger pushing it further west in this run.


Yep, if the Euro is right, even you might get in on the action!

Unfortunately IH-35 will likely not see any beneficial rainfall from this system. :cry:

Houston could get slammed though. Wish I could send it west!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#234 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:20 am

Today marks the Summer Solstice the longest day of the year! Good news is the days grow shorter past this point bad news is it gets hotter until late August climo wise. Only 10 weeks until we move into the fall thread :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#235 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:16 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 00Z ECMWF has a Galveston landfall and then goes up right through Galveston Bay and has a direct hit on the eastern parts of Houston. It appears to me that the ridge is slightly stronger pushing it further west in this run.


Yep, if the Euro is right, even you might get in on the action!

Unfortunately IH-35 will likely not see any beneficial rainfall from this system. :cry:

Houston could get slammed though. Wish I could send it west!


My wife and daughter are headed to Katy tomorrow through Saturday morning to see her cousin. Do you think they will be okay?
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#236 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:27 am

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#237 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:30 am

There is still a shot the gulf system could meander west. I agree with STS a Galveston Bay area final landfall seems likely even though it is just off the LA coast now. As the upper trough dragging it north moves away, it should crawl west. Without a hard steering pattern how for west it goes determines who gets rains. A little west of Galveston with NW motion preferred (as a weak entity of course). With front nearby that kind of setup should it occur may produce serious flooding
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#238 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:53 am

Ntxw wrote:There is still a shot the gulf system could meander west. I agree with STS a Galveston Bay area final landfall seems likely even though it is just off the LA coast now. As the upper trough dragging it north moves away, it should crawl west. Without a hard steering pattern how for west it goes determines who gets rains. A little west of Galveston with NW motion preferred (as a weak entity of course). With front nearby that kind of setup should it occur may produce serious flooding


Our friend aggiecutter looks to get a good soaking from PTC 3. Same with our SE Texas friends.

As for the rest of us, we'll probably have to wait until this weekend and the frontal boundary. Heh, crazy that we're talking about a frontal boundary coming well into the state in late June isn't it?!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#239 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:30 am

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:There is still a shot the gulf system could meander west. I agree with STS a Galveston Bay area final landfall seems likely even though it is just off the LA coast now. As the upper trough dragging it north moves away, it should crawl west. Without a hard steering pattern how for west it goes determines who gets rains. A little west of Galveston with NW motion preferred (as a weak entity of course). With front nearby that kind of setup should it occur may produce serious flooding


Our friend aggiecutter looks to get a good soaking from PTC 3. Same with our SE Texas friends.

As for the rest of us, we'll probably have to wait until this weekend and the frontal boundary. Heh, crazy that we're talking about a frontal boundary coming well into the state in late June isn't it?!


Making up for frontal boundaries we did NOT get in February. :lol:

I hope the tropical system jogs more west. Get outta here upper trough! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#240 Postby Houstonia » Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:39 pm

Hello Cindy:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2
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