Texas Summer 2017

[Cpv17]

It's still in the Gulf at the end of the run but its definitely on the northerly route and probably close to a cane

What did it show in its last run?

far weaker and much further south

Well that's an interesting trend then, no doubt.

[South Texas Storms]

Can we please take the 0z GFS run to the bank? Shows widespread 2-4 inches of rain across much of the state, with parts of south central Texas seeing up to 6 inches of rainfall as Harvey tracks up the Rio Grande.

[Cpv17]

Can we please take the 0z GFS run to the bank? Shows widespread 2-4 inches of rain across much of the state, with parts of south central Texas seeing up to 6 inches of rainfall as Harvey tracks up the Rio Grande.

Yeah, but I bet money it would be stronger than 1001 mb. GFS has done a terrible job with the strength of storms this year. The upgrade made it worse.

[Portastorm]

We'll see. As for now it looks like Harvey is a disheveled mess. He may have even lost his circulation at this point. But I suspect he may regain it IF he slows down in the WCARIB.

I'm more intrigued by the Euro's depiction of an actual front getting close to Central Texas by the middle of next week. Perhaps this "rain" thing that you North Texans keep crowing about it will reach us in the desert southlands. One can hope.

[weatherdude1108]

A little more encouraging post.



000
FXUS64 KEWX 190844
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
344 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Continued influences of a stubborn hot air mass continue today and
tomorrow. Highs again right around 100 degrees for much of the I-35
corridor with heat indices ranging from 101-108. The higher end of
these values will be seen again in the southeast zones. Surface winds
are expected to remain southerly and southeasterly today as a surface
high is located over the Louisiana coast.

Over the last couple days, isolated showers and storms have developed
despite all clear indications from CAMs and other short range models.
Again this morning the hi-res suite shows the area shower-less,
however GFS and ECWMF deterministic produce isolated showers again to
the northwest. Looking at forecast soundings across the area, parcels
will be struggling against a pretty dry column and an unfavorable
wind profile above 600 mb. As a result, still feel that a dry
forecast is the right call, but did include 10 PoPs along the
southeast and northwest zones for the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
A pattern change looks to be on the horizon beginning mid week as a
TUTT low traverses the Gulf of Mexico, moving west. This will bring
at first, welcome relief of 2-3 degrees in Max T, then an uptick in
PoP chances as the low pushes west of the CWA. This pattern has been
pretty consistently advertised now in mid range models.

The more notable feature comes late week as a frontal passage is
progged to push south and into Texas Wednesday night through Friday.
At the moment, the 00Z GFS deterministic solution is significantly
more dry than its ECMWF counterpart. With the ridge centered over
northern Mexico, whatever convection occurs with the frontal passage
should be able to push far enough south to bring showers at least to
the northern zones late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The
question will be how far south? The GFS solution stalls the front
along our northeast border with HGX/FWD but with 850 mb flow parallel
to the boundary, could result in some locally heavy rainfall.
Additionally, the nose of the 850 mb LLJ would intrude nicely into a
2+" PWAT environment along the stalled boundary...so if this solution
comes to fruition, could result in some meaningful rain for the
northern I-35 corridor, perhaps extending as far south as Williamson
County.

Come Friday, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all develop some sort of tropical
disturbance off the Yucatan and pushes it quickly north along the
Mexican coastline, coming on shore just south of Brownsville. If so,
this would put the southern half of the state under a very rich
moisture regime for next weekend, possibly leading to more heavy
rainfall chances. More to come on this with more model evolution.

[bubba hotep]

Even the Euro solution would be acceptable, gets a huge slug of tropical moisture associated with Harvey up into most of Texas with widespread rainfall.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

We'll see. As for now it looks like Harvey is a disheveled mess. He may have even lost his circulation at this point. But I suspect he may regain it IF he slows down in the WCARIB.

I'm more intrigued by the Euro's depiction of an actual front getting close to Central Texas by the middle of next week. Perhaps this "rain" thing that you North Texans keep crowing about it will reach us in the desert southlands. One can hope.

It's going to run out of water before it gets its act together. Belize landfall looks likely as a TD or weak TS. It has more terrain to navigate hitting that far south. My eyes are more towards the front and trof than Harvey.

[Texas Snowman]

So with Harvey threatening to fizzle, the Lone Star State weather question might be what happens first?

Does Texas get a major hurricane on the Gulf Coast?

Or

Does it snow in Austin?

EDIT: I certainly don't want a big hurricane to menance the coast, just noting that it's been a while.

My money is on Portastorm getting to play in the snow with Champ the Charger. Maybe even this winter.

[hriverajr]

Been a long time for both...

[Brent]

That's a tough decision

[TexasBreeze]

Not so sure about getting Harvey effects, but the GFS is at least showing runs with more moisture around the state than it has been showing lately!

[Ntxw]

GFS is definitely a good run. Good thing is with climo perhaps this is the stepping down process. Has mostly low 90s/80s mid to long range for highs which is more in tune with the change of seasons.

[Portastorm]

Remember when we used to have legitimate tropical systems/threats in the western Gulf?

Yeah ... me too.

[Rgv20]

Let see how much rain we can squeeze out of Harvey by the end of next week. My thinking is that it will probably make a second landfall just north of Tampico.

[Tireman4]

Remember when we used to have legitimate tropical systems/threats in the western Gulf?

Yeah ... me too.

That was the Elders said at Council last night

[weatherdude1108]

GFS is definitely a good run. Good thing is with climo perhaps this is the stepping down process. Has mostly low 90s/80s mid to long range for highs which is more in tune with the change of seasons.

I'm LOVING that map!

[Brent]

Just hoping this modeled front and rain holds up because I have zero confidence in Harvey being a story for most of us

[Cpv17]

The tropics just aren't what they used to be for the past several years now. Nothing but one boring season after another. Oh well, at least rain chances are looking good the next couple weeks.

[Ntxw]

DFW airport hit 100 again today (10th time).

KAUS, like a broken record, tacked on another 100 degree day for millionth time...

[aggiecutter]