Texas Fall 2017

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#341 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:39 am

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Is it because of Nate why the front isn't that strong?


its probably related, remember after Irma summer got worse... hurricanes going east of us are usually not good

Why is hurricanes east of us not good?

Because when tc’s go east of us it puts TX on the dry side and the counterclockwise circulation around the center of the storm gives us a northerly wind component which means warm and dry. Nothing but a bunch of good ole sinking air putting a cap on any kinda shower activity to get going.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#342 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:29 am

Going back a few years to 2012 the high today back then was 57F which was the coolest max temp for the date. It was also one of the more impressive cold spells for early Oct that culminated into 39F a few nights later, the earliest sub 40 reading for the month at DFW.

Today we'll be close to 90F. For the month the airport has not even hit the average low (62, 61) since the start of Oct.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#343 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:45 am

You all know this (NTWX of course preaches this)....models do not handle fronts ( cold) well. It seems to lose them in midstream, underestimates them or misses the mark by 5-10 degrees. I think as we get closer, it should have a better handle of what will happen.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#344 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:16 pm

Tireman4 wrote:You all know this (NTWX of course preaches this)....models do not handle fronts ( cold) well. It seems to lose them in midstream, underestimates them or misses the mark by 5-10 degrees. I think as we get closer, it should have a better handle of what will happen.

A lot of the times the models will show it in the long range, lose it in the middle, and pick it back up in short range.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#345 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:42 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:You all know this (NTWX of course preaches this)....models do not handle fronts ( cold) well. It seems to lose them in midstream, underestimates them or misses the mark by 5-10 degrees. I think as we get closer, it should have a better handle of what will happen.

A lot of the times the models will show it in the long range, lose it in the middle, and pick it back up in short range.


Yep. So many times I cannot begin to count.

Still go for launch at HGX

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Tuesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 62.
WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 64.
ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 84.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#346 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:55 pm

EWX is a go with the front, trending cooler and fairly windy.

All eyes on Lucy as she begins to set the ball down on the field....
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#347 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:56 pm

JDawg512 wrote:EWX is also a go with the front, trending cooler and fairly windy.

All eyes on Lucy as she begins to set the ball down on the field....

and Charlie Brown kicks it!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#348 Postby DonWrk » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:05 pm

This sucks, I’m ready for a wet and cool pattern to set in!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#349 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:04 pm

DonWrk wrote:This sucks, I’m ready for a wet and cool pattern to set in!

no joke! hopefully we're not saying that same thing come mid winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#350 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:11 pm

We'll just have to be patient and let the warmth run its course. I am optimistic SSTs are better this year than the past 2 season. The big elephant in the room obviously is second year Ninas winters historically are bad. This holiday weekend will be warm but week's end will be more tolerable at least. The important thing now is to warm those Gulf of Alaska waters and expand that snow-cover rapidly. If we can get a good deal on the back end it will be worth it
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#351 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:19 pm

Let's just hope the warmth runs its course the last couple of years it still dominated the winter

looks like after the front where we might get 2 days near/below normal we'll be pushing 90 again by the end of next week... :roll: :roll: :roll: If it makes anyone feel better, the misery will be widespread across the plains and east. Actually east of us may not get a front period once Nate exits.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#352 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:30 pm

NWS FW is forecasting 95F for Columbus day. Record high Monday is 96F
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#353 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:NWS FW is forecasting 95F for Columbus day. Record high Monday is 96F

That's enough to make a grown man cry. Just disgusting. At least is cools off the day after.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#354 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:NWS FW is forecasting 95F for Columbus day. Record high Monday is 96F


I'm so sick of record highs ugh
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#355 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:11 am

59F at DFW this morning, officially first 50s since early/mid May. A few more 50s on the way before warms up later in the week.

Houston is still muggy in the 70s but some 60s for lows on the way. Same for KAUS.

Tuesday looks like best day of the week. 60s for most of the day in NTX, 70s in C and SE Tx. But hot tomorrow for all before front.


So if you can take Tues or Weds off to be outdoors or to the state fair, perfect weather
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#356 Postby gboudx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:30 am

We should've just stayed in the Summer Thread. Would've been more appropriate considering the overall high temps we've been having. Two days of teasing, then crank it back up.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#357 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:05 am

gboudx wrote:We should've just stayed in the Summer Thread. Would've been more appropriate considering the overall high temps we've been having. Two days of teasing, then crank it back up.


It's getting to the point where we don't even have other seasons :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#358 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:17 am

Brent wrote:
gboudx wrote:We should've just stayed in the Summer Thread. Would've been more appropriate considering the overall high temps we've been having. Two days of teasing, then crank it back up.


It's getting to the point where we don't even have other seasons :lol:


Oct is already 8.4F above normal. Lows have been the real killer. Barring some major volcanic eruption 2017 could be another top 5 warmest year, August was just a blip. The number of above normal months since 2010 is unreal
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#359 Postby gboudx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
gboudx wrote:We should've just stayed in the Summer Thread. Would've been more appropriate considering the overall high temps we've been having. Two days of teasing, then crank it back up.


It's getting to the point where we don't even have other seasons :lol:


Oct is already 8.4F above normal. Lows have been the real killer. Barring some major volcanic eruption 2017 could be another top 5 warmest year, August was just a blip. The number of above normal months since 2010 is unreal


Unfortunately, warmer than normal is becoming the norm. IIRC, Fall didn't really start until about mid-November last year. Soon, the trees will start the process of dropping leaves. It's weird seeing the leaves turn colors and it's still warm. Colorful leaves evoke expectations of cool weather, not warm/hot.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#360 Postby JDawg512 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:09 pm

Welcome to the new norm guys, and it's only going to get hotter going into the next decade. With the exception of a few outlier "cold" winters, our climate will soon move out of sub-tropical and into the tropical category in terms of average temps. The rise in night temps is indeed a key factor.

My focus as you all know is rain and rainfall patterns. I'm meticulously documenting every rainfall event and the general frequency of events. It's a long term project that will last at least for another decade.

Speaking of rain, I hope we get at least a little with the front. Not hurting for it currently but it's better to keep topsoil moisture replenished as consistently as possible.
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