Thunderstorms maybe on travel day Wednesday before Thansgiving?
FXUS64 KEWX 151019
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
419 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A shallow upper trough moving through the Midwest will send a weak
cold front that is expected to wash out over South Central TX by
tonight. most model indications are that the leading edge of the
front becomes modified once it reaches into the Hill Country late
this afternoon. A weak inverted trough extending from the Rio Grande
Plains into Central TX should keep the I-35 Corridor in the warm and
moist sector through the period although the relative weak pressure
gradient could lead to an occasional NEly surface wind this evening.
Moisture convergence that develops over the Hill Country and I-35
corridor has resulted in an uptick in isentropic lift based rain
chances for tonight in most of the model runs over the past 24 hours.
Thus we could see another day of light rain showers, patchy drizzle
and perhaps some fog. For simplicity, will keep out the drizzle
mention for now as some of the finer res models show a fair amount of
qpf to suggest spotty amounts of around 1/4 inch possible. Thursday
continues the pattern which probably peaks at between 06z and 18z.
The surface trough weakens late in the day and all of South Central
TX should be restored to the warm sector by 00z Friday.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The low level moist layer is expected to become more shallow Thursday
night after winds above the boundary layer strengthen out of the SSW.
Morning cloudiness should start off the day Friday with partly sunny
skies developing in the afternoon and high temperatures climbing
back to well above seasonal normals. Mild and humid temps last for
one more night, and then a stronger cold front arrives to scour out
the moisture for mid-morning Saturday. Having a daytime means the
highs for Saturday may still fall near or above normals with temps
possibly leveling off for falling slightly in the midday hours. The
gradient and afternoon drying could lead to a brief elevated fire
weather concern for the Srn Edwards Plateau, but uncertainties in the
frontal timing leads to poor confidence on minimum RH forecasts. The
surface ridge continues to spill into the area through Sunday
morning with below normal temps to follow through late Monday. The
coldest mins of the week are expected Monday morning when the surface
pressure gradient is weakest. Return flow and a warming trend is
then expected for Tuesday as a progressive polar trough approaches TX
and carves out a sharp pressure gradient to enhance south winds. The
approaching trough could set up a more rain chances and potential
for thunderstorms by next Wednesday.
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