Texas Fall 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#881 Postby Brent » Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Just a little bit of a history look.

On this day November 13, 1976 DFW recorded 4.7" of fresh fallen snow. On the same date in 1906 and 1986 the high temperature was 33F!


Different times *sigh*

This is the week it snowed in 2014 though(of the 3 winters I've been here, the only one worth anything)
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#882 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:21 am

0z GFS has some verifiable cold days Thanksgiving weekend... highs in the 40s at DFW, 34 is the lowest on the meteogram

0z Euro has a big rain event Thanksgiving Eve(Wednesday) then temps around 50 all day Thanksgiving
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#883 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:03 am

Brent wrote:0z GFS has some verifiable cold days Thanksgiving weekend... highs in the 40s at DFW, 34 is the lowest on the meteogram

0z Euro has a big rain event Thanksgiving Eve(Wednesday) then temps around 50 all day Thanksgiving


Second run in a row with the Euro showing rain across Texas. I would take that over cold at this point.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#884 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:26 am

Last few operational runs for both the GFS and Euro are showing a good cold snap for Texas around Thanksgiving. I'm liking it! And some rain would be great too.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#885 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:01 am

Portastorm wrote:Last few operational runs for both the GFS and Euro are showing a good cold snap for Texas around Thanksgiving. I'm liking it! And some rain would be great too.


Maybe some icy stuff too, Porta? :P
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#886 Postby Theepicman116 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:52 am

Appearently the average high for thanksgiving is 63ish and the normal low is 43ish. Pete Delkus’ 10 day forecast calls for a high of 62 and a low of 43 on Thanksgiving in North Texas. If that’s the average temperatures than I’m not complaining.

Normally our average high for this time of year is in the lower to mid 60’s. It’s when we have high’s in the 70’s that bother me.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#887 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:02 pm

Theepicman116 wrote:Appearently the average high for thanksgiving is 63ish and the normal low is 43ish. Pete Delkus’ 10 day forecast calls for a high of 62 and a low of 43 on Thanksgiving in North Texas. If that’s the average temperatures than I’m not complaining.

Normally our average high for this time of year is in the lower to mid 60’s. It’s when we have high’s in the 70’s that bother me.


0z GFS and Euro both show temps in the 40s for Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Quite a difference from Mr. Delkus' forecast.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#888 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:13 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Theepicman116 wrote:Appearently the average high for thanksgiving is 63ish and the normal low is 43ish. Pete Delkus’ 10 day forecast calls for a high of 62 and a low of 43 on Thanksgiving in North Texas. If that’s the average temperatures than I’m not complaining.

Normally our average high for this time of year is in the lower to mid 60’s. It’s when we have high’s in the 70’s that bother me.


0z GFS and Euro both show temps in the 40s for Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Quite a difference from Mr. Delkus' forecast.
He also predicted 56 on Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#889 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:09 pm

The 12Z GFS really has the cold air mass slowly building southward at the very end of the run. Really cold on the Siberian side of the world, as usual. Lala land. But cool to watch on a loop. Snow cover not bad either.
:wink:

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#890 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:13 pm

Over the summer, our trusted DFW meteorologist Steve McCauley mentioned one of his long range models he has trusted in the past was calling for, and I am paraphrasing here, a December with multiple and potentially severe arctic outbreaks. I wonder if that model is currently calling for the same thing as we have neared that particular time frame. One can hope, I am ready for some really cold air. I check his posts at least once a day and I am sure he will give an update hopefully soon.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#891 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:29 pm

Blocking East of the Hudson Bay or Greenland would be best for a true arctic outbreak, or what has been hinted by some models. Some model runs i noticed had a large ULL build and mature in the northeast. Downstream of this, it can lead to a block just north of the ULL, which can lead to an outbreak. Something ive noticed.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#892 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:50 am

0z Euro has a big rain event Tuesday Afternoon Night and then highs in the mid 50s Wednesday, and widespread 30s Thanksgiving morning with highs in the mid 50s

0z GFS has no rain and is less cold with temps in the 60s Wednesday and 50s Thanksgiving

After Friday(and that has trended away from record heat at least for now, GFS 76, Euro 79 DFW), there is no really warm temperatures on either model
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#893 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:26 am

A shortwave will be effecting Thanksgiving weather. Still 7 days out but as many have posted above, likely not a warm Thanksgiving this year much like Halloween.

Wonder if we've hit a 30 day cycle with warmth early month and cold snaps late month
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#894 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:42 am

Thunderstorms maybe on travel day Wednesday before Thansgiving?


000
FXUS64 KEWX 151019
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
419 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A shallow upper trough moving through the Midwest will send a weak
cold front that is expected to wash out over South Central TX by
tonight. most model indications are that the leading edge of the
front becomes modified once it reaches into the Hill Country late
this afternoon. A weak inverted trough extending from the Rio Grande
Plains into Central TX should keep the I-35 Corridor in the warm and
moist sector through the period although the relative weak pressure
gradient could lead to an occasional NEly surface wind this evening.
Moisture convergence that develops over the Hill Country and I-35
corridor has resulted in an uptick in isentropic lift based rain
chances for tonight in most of the model runs over the past 24 hours.
Thus we could see another day of light rain showers, patchy drizzle
and perhaps some fog.
For simplicity, will keep out the drizzle
mention for now as some of the finer res models show a fair amount of
qpf to suggest spotty amounts of around 1/4 inch possible.
Thursday
continues the pattern which probably peaks at between 06z and 18z.
The surface trough weakens late in the day and all of South Central
TX should be restored to the warm sector by 00z Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The low level moist layer is expected to become more shallow Thursday
night after winds above the boundary layer strengthen out of the SSW.
Morning cloudiness should start off the day Friday with partly sunny
skies developing in the afternoon and high temperatures climbing
back to well above seasonal normals. Mild and humid temps last for
one more night, and then a stronger cold front arrives to scour out
the moisture for mid-morning Saturday. Having a daytime means the
highs for Saturday may still fall near or above normals with temps
possibly leveling off for falling slightly in the midday hours. The
gradient and afternoon drying could lead to a brief elevated fire
weather concern for the Srn Edwards Plateau, but uncertainties in the
frontal timing leads to poor confidence on minimum RH forecasts. The
surface ridge continues to spill into the area through Sunday
morning with below normal temps to follow through late Monday. The
coldest mins of the week are expected Monday morning when the surface
pressure gradient is weakest. Return flow and a warming trend is
then expected for Tuesday as a progressive polar trough approaches TX
and carves out a sharp pressure gradient to enhance south winds. The
approaching trough could set up a more rain chances
and potential
for thunderstorms by next Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#895 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:50 am

HGX is unsure...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 151029
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A froggy morning expected for much of SE TX today (and likely to-
morrow) given the clear skies/light winds and increased low-level
moisture. A Dense Fog Advisory is possible shortly on through the
mid-morning hours when conditions will be improving. Another mild
and dry afternoon is forecast with max temperatures continuing to
run slightly above seasonal norms. A weak upper level disturbance
approaching from the NW could produce some very isolated/light RA
late this afternoon/tonight across our northern counties...but no
significant accumulations are expected given the very dry airmass
over the region. Otherwise, this pattern of cloudy/foggy mornings
and dry/warm(ing) afternoons should continue the next few days.

Our next best rain chances are still progged for Sat with the pas-
sage of a strong cold front. Model consensus a bit better with re-
gard to timing, which are pointing at the front being right along
the coast late Sat afternoon. The majority of the POPS will be at
and along the front, where lift will be best. The slightly capped
airmass (progged to be in place) could support some isolated TSRA.

Much cooler/drier weather expected in the wake of the front, with
perhaps some Fire Weather issues on Sun (see below). The extended
forecast (into the holiday week) is shaping up to be a rather dis-
parate one. Not seeing a lot (if any) consensus with this pattern
as the 00Z ECMWF is trending much much wetter/active than the 00Z
GFS. As such, will opt to lean a bit more with the ECMWF with the
long-range forecast as it has been verifying a bit better of late.
41

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds on tap for a few days as high pressure over
Louisiana moves eastward and weak front sags southward into the
state tonight/Thursday. Strengthened onshore winds Friday on tap and
will probably reach SCEC conditions as winds and seas build...south
winds gradually veer to the southwest by afternoon. A cold front
pushes off the coast Saturday late afternoon and moderate offshore
ensues. SCEC and probably SCA conditions will follow with rough
waters thanks to the persistent southerly flow Friday and building
southerly swell banging against the offshore strengthening wind
waves. Model forecasts for Tue-Thu look like a roulette wheel for
outcomes. Strong offshore flow possible to light-moderate
easterly...very unsettled to say the least and confidence is very
low after Monday.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
Lots of MIFG across the area with some areas of more widespread fog.
At times 1/4 to 1 mile and others 6+. Low stratus deck edging
eastward and has moved into 3T5-11R-CLL area. Fog will probably
become a little thicker across the area and impacts at IAH/HOU
possible. After 14-15z warming and light winds/VFR on tap until
tonight (after 04z) when another round of VLIFR/IFR possible with a
mix of CIGS and VISBY.
45

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overnight and early morning with excellent recovery conditions will
prevail the next few mornings. Friday will have gusty south to
southwest winds 10-20 mph with well above normal temperatures by 7-
10 degrees. A cold front swings through Saturday which could bring
spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. Northwest to north
winds in the wake of the front will follow and should increase to 10
to 20 mph. Sunday a surge of drier air will be pushing south and if
skies remain clear and temperatures reach the projections of mid to
upper 60s then RH values will drop into the 21-27 percent range with
northerly winds of near 10 mph possibly stronger during the morning
and early afternoon hours. Fuel moistures should continue to dry out
though early this month ERC values were near normal for this time of
year. Given the weather and fuel moisture elevated fire weather
conditions may be possible.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 64 79 65 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 61 79 64 81 / 10 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 68 75 69 76 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#896 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:50 am

Currently 63 with 90% humidity, dark clouds and light on and off rain. Winds out of the NE.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#897 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:09 pm

Wow, can't believe you guys haven't posted about the 12z GFS run. :eek: So can we agree to lock it in? A storm like that would give me a rare double dip action. I'd get to enjoy snow in Texas until that Saturday evening when I'd be flying back to Ohio where Columbus gets nailed(just barely) by the backside of the low. :lol: This is also not the first time the GFS has shown this storm. It had it yesterday for the 12z run, but didn't have much precip if any in Texas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#898 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:28 pm

Yeah 12z has a big cold front coming the weekend after Thanksgiving. Something to watch. Take not of the position of the high in the N Pac/Alaska region. Thats where we need it!
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#899 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:42 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Yeah 12z has a big cold front coming the weekend after Thanksgiving. Something to watch. Take not of the position of the high in the N Pac/Alaska region. Thats where we need it!
How does thanksgiving look?
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Re: Texas Fall 2017

#900 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:51 pm

If the 2000 and 2013 is going to work, 12Z gfs looks nice!
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