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AdamFirst
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Re: Florida Weather

#11921 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:53 am

Saw a Facebook post from one of the local Mets around here (Jeff Berardelli at CBS12) mentioning that the Panhandle has a chance to see a bit of slushy snow as the front finally passes through overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 5502128723
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Re: Florida Weather

#11922 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:04 am

:uarrow: Yeah, potent shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the upper trough axis along the Gulf Coast Friday into Friday night is the reason. Could be just enough cold air aloft in the column to produce light snow/flurries in the Panhandle region before precip ends out there late Friday night or very early Saturday morning.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11923 Postby Tropics Guy » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:32 pm

Well, The long-awaited Cold weather is almost upon us here in South Florida, The headline from the latest NWS Miami discussion.

National Weather Service Miami FL
414 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY LASTING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK...
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Re: Florida Weather

#11924 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:23 pm

Image

...Florida...
A front which extends across central Florida as of Thursday will
gradually shift northward on Friday as southerly winds increase
ahead of the amplifying shortwave trough. Episodes of thunderstorms
are likely during the day near the stalled portion of the front over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with perhaps a few elevated showers and
storms across northern Florida into southern Georgia. The primary
risk will develop Friday night as wind fields increase, and the
front accelerates into Saturday morning. Models currently have
substantial spread in terms of frontal position, and the main
shortwave trough energy will remain well to the west, precluding a
Slight risk at this time. However, storms are expected to gradually
organize along the front, with 50+ kt 850 mb flow and modest
low-level veering with height supporting a QLCS capable of damaging
winds or isolated/brief tornadoes, primarily across western parts of
the state as storms come ashore.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11925 Postby psyclone » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:49 pm

I'm slightly intrigued by the SVR and heavy rain risk evolving before the cold takes over. The shelf waters which frequently kill off incoming convection are warmer than normal for this time of year owing to the recent warm weather. we may see a semi interesting squall line approach the west coast from the eastern Gulf.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11926 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:24 pm

Saw some flashes of lightning from thunderstorms out west over Lake Okeechobee. Instability is high even in the overnight hours with the heat and humidity.

Looks as if this cool/cold spell will last only 5-7 days then it’s likely back to the warm weather pattern that Florida is known for these days.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11927 Postby chaser1 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:44 am

From the Melbourne Office (forecast discussion)
"....... Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s south to Lake
Okeechobee Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Looks like the NWS is gonna go way out there on a limb with this long range 48 hr. forecast (temperatures which I saw coming a week or more ago).

While the air will obviously moderate some in between short waves dropping down into the E. Conus trough, this cool weather appears that it'll stick around for a while, at least as compared to typical South/Central Florida standards.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11928 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:40 am

Will be a change for sure, but for extreme SE Florida, east of the Turnpike especially, I'm still going to guess temps come in a couple degrees or so higher than forecast, simply because that's almost always what happens.

Stepping outside this morning, if you didn't know any better, it would be hard to believe a significant change is coming. With a dewpoint at 74 degrees, it feels like summer.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11929 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:53 am

Patrick99 wrote:Will be a change for sure, but for extreme SE Florida, east of the Turnpike especially, I'm still going to guess temps come in a couple degrees or so higher than forecast, simply because that's almost always what happens.

Stepping outside this morning, if you didn't know any better, it would be hard to believe a significant change is coming. With a dewpoint at 74 degrees, it feels like summer.

Yep, feels like a sauna outside this morning! Concrete and plants still wet from late last evening or overnight rainfall. This change is beyond welcomed as it will be the first cooldown since just before Halloween!
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Re: Florida Weather

#11930 Postby chaser1 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:16 am

Patrick99 wrote:Will be a change for sure, but for extreme SE Florida, east of the Turnpike especially, I'm still going to guess temps come in a couple degrees or so higher than forecast, simply because that's almost always what happens.

Stepping outside this morning, if you didn't know any better, it would be hard to believe a significant change is coming. With a dew-point at 74 degrees, it feels like summer.


I feel ''ya! I don't miss those excessive dew points at all lol. I never would have thought that moving the relative short distance from Miami to the Orlando area would make so much difference in terms of temperature variability. After today, Central or North Florida probably won't see the 70F degree mark until a week from Sunday!

Your right about how the lowest forecast lows down there (but especially east of I-75 and the Turnpike), never seem to quite reach even the short term forecast lows. I think you guys way down south are in for a pleasant surprise though. While the GSF forecast charts seem to be fairly accurate, I'm seeing some odd disconnect with the 2-Meter Temp forecasts seeming to not jive and appear 5-10 degrees warm relative to what the 500mb and surface gradient & flow would indicate. In fact, i'm seeing the GEM 2-Meter Temp forecasts seemingly a consistent 8-10 degrees colder that the GFS yet seeing little distinction between their's and the GFS 500mb and surface maps. At this point I'm guessing that areas even east of the Turnpike in Miami-Dade will see upper 30's either (or both) next Tuesday or Wednesday mornings. Not record breaking, but a whole lot cooler than lately.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11931 Postby chaser1 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:20 am

psyclone wrote:I'm slightly intrigued by the SVR and heavy rain risk evolving before the cold takes over. The shelf waters which frequently kill off incoming convection are warmer than normal for this time of year owing to the recent warm weather. we may see a semi interesting squall line approach the west coast from the eastern Gulf.


Right? I wouldn't have even suspected a squall line with this system but there seems to be the added discussion of the possibility of strong to severe weather, so I suppose you're right.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11932 Postby boca » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:20 pm

If we get below 50 here in SE Florida I'll be surprised,when I went to lunch my car thermometer said 89 degrees.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11933 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:43 pm

Currently 86 degrees at Witham Field (Stuart)

NWS Melbourne continues to adjust temperature predictions downward - low temp for Sunday night-Monday morning now expected to be 36 degrees here, with patchy frost.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11934 Postby psyclone » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:06 pm

boca wrote:If we get below 50 here in SE Florida I'll be surprised,when I went to lunch my car thermometer said 89 degrees.


well a few days ago you said you'd be surprised with 59 and that's stretching it. FWIW MIA says upper 40's for Boca so that's decent. This is going to be a respectable double tap of cool...even for you guys down south. Enjoy it. I've got a pot of chili on right now:)
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Re: Florida Weather

#11935 Postby psyclone » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:08 pm

And.... the 8-14 day is back to above normal...
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Re: Florida Weather

#11936 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:00 pm

Should see some snow in the western Florida Panhandle within the next few hours!



https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/939328098687946753


Meanwhile down here in South Florida it's a balmy 77°F with dew points in the low-mid 70's @ 10pm.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11937 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:03 pm

psyclone wrote:And.... the 8-14 day is back to above normal...

Looks like it will be yet another warm Christmas here in Florida, enjoy the colder weather while it lasts!
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Re: Florida Weather

#11938 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:06 am

Finally the models' forecasted 30s are making it down to the I-4 corridor for tomorrow morning and Monday morning. Glad we are not dealing with freezing temps like they had originally forecasted, thanks to the neutral to slight positive NAO that is not happening.
PNA is forecasted to go back to neutral if not negative so I would expect a big warm up in the 7-14 day range.
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Re: Florida Weather

#11939 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:11 am

@EricBlake12
In case you missed it this early morning- snow was reported at several sites in NW #Florida - quite a respectable number of places too ❄️


Image



https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/939456936512311296
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Re: Florida Weather

#11940 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:28 am

Cold, overcast and dreary conditions this morning here at my home. 45.6 degrees currently and the clouds will hang in for most of today as the upper trough axis finally moves east. Temps will stay where they are now all day long. Picked up just under 2 and 1/4 inches of rainfall goal ending early this morning.

The first freeze of the season looks to be a sure bet tomorrow morning across the Panhandle and most interior locales here in North Florida. Keep in mind the new snow pack over the Deep South. I feel this will help to bring temps down a bit colder than model guidance earlier forecasted. I think mid -upper 20s will be possible out in the Panhandle tomorrow morning, and upper 20s common in the Big Bend region, and 30 -33 degrees across interior Northeast Florida .

Looks as if another freeze Monday morning in North Florida as well.

Much colder down the rest of the peninsula as upper30s are possible d own close to the I-4 corridor, if not tomorrow morning, then by Monday morning. South Florida interior areas should see mins well down into 40s over the weekend.
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