2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

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cycloneye
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2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:38 pm

Let's see how the 2018 severe season is in terms on how active it will be. 2017 had 1,522 tornadoes.(Still can change as is preliminary)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torgraph

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Image

Image
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:43 pm

Maybe the severe season begins early with a change to a warmer pattern after mid January?

@BenNollWeather
We see a much milder pattern emerging across the central & eastern U.S. during mid Jan to early Feb. A significant mid-winter thaw in the cards as #LaNiña-like tropical forcing (i.e. MJO) returns.




https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/949239216189317120
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:24 pm

Impressive image.

@StormVisuals
Storm moving offshore over northeast Lake Okeechobee. Possible remnant funnel on leading edge of rain core. #flwx @NWSMiami @NWSMelbourne


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https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/951200031025090561
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:14 pm

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern OH...WV...western
MD...PA...NY...VT...and northern NH

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 130004Z - 130600Z

SUMMARY...An initial transition from rain to freezing rain, then to
sleet and snow will occur this evening as a cold front moves
eastward.

DISCUSSION...23Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
northern VT into central NY/PA, and then continuing into western MD
and WV. The cold front will develop generally east-southeastward
through 06Z, with the 32F surface isotherm lagging the initial wind
shift by about 90-100 miles. A mid/upper-level trough/low centered
over KY/TN will continue moving east-northeastward this evening.
Large-scale lift associated with the upper trough/low has promoted a
broad area of mostly light to moderate precipitation from WV
northward to NY.

Recent surface observations and local storm reports indicate a
relatively narrow corridor of freezing rain is occurring
along/behind the surface freezing-line intersection with the ongoing
light/moderate rain. Freezing rain rates of at least several
hundredths of an inch per hour will be likely, with rates up to 0.10
inch per hour possible in the heaviest showers. These higher rates
appear more likely across northern PA into south-central NY over the
next few hours as an area of moderate to locally heavy rain moves
across this region and surface temperatures fall below freezing.

A transition to sleet and then snow will occur as a residual
low-level warm nose centered around 900-750 mb quickly erodes with
the approach of the mid/upper level trough/low. Some of the snow may
become heavy at times, with rates around 1 inch per hour, especially
across western PA/NY into southeastern where this transition to snow
is already occurring.

..Gleason.. 01/13/2018
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:57 pm

Jeff_Piotrowski
Storm chasing today NE/TX near Paris. Tornado watch soon OK/TX.




https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/955166848277913601
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:07 pm

Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma through western
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211913Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21Z across
northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and subsequently increase in
coverage and intensity. Supercells and bowing line segments with
damaging wind and a few tornadoes should be the primary threats. A
tornado watch will probably be needed before 21Z.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a dryline extends from northeast KS
through west-central OK to north-central and southwest TX. Pacific
front will merge with the dryline later this afternoon, and this
boundary will continue through the southern Plains this evening as a
surface low consolidates over eastern KS in association with a
progressive shortwave trough. Modifying continental-polar air with
low 60s F dewpoints has advected through the warm sector beneath
modest lapse rates where objective analysis shows a corridor of
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE from central and northeast TX into southeast OK.
WV imagery indicates mid-upper level moistening and clouds resulting
from a band of deeper forcing for ascent moving through eastern OK
and northeast TX, and scattered showers are already developing over
northeast TX in association with this process. RAP soundings
indicate a capping inversion still in place around 750 mb, but
ascent in the 850-500 mb layer layer will eventually erode the
inversion, contributing to thunderstorm development by 20-21Z.
Vertical wind shear will increase as the low-level jet strengthens
within exit region of the approaching mid-upper jet with large 0-1
km hodographs and effective-bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. This
environment should support organized storms including a few discrete
supercells and bowing line segments as storms intensify later this
afternoon and evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/21/2018
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:10 pm


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
Northeastern Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly increase in coverage
and intensity this afternoon into this evening from north and
northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
in advance of a strong storm system progressing eastward over the
Great Plains. The storm environment will support some threat for
semi-discrete supercells for the next few hours, and then convection
should gradually grow upscale into more of a squall line tonight. A
few tornadoes with the supercells and/or embedded circulations, as
well as damaging winds with bowing segments, will be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Harrison AR
to 50 miles south southwest of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.

...Thompson


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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:24 pm

Tornado Warning including Whitesboro OK until 4:45 PM CST

Image



https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/955202528660029440
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:52 pm

@ReedTimmerAccu
Dangerous tornado warned supercell near Tool, Texas as of 6:45 pm heading northeast in the direction of the Canton TX area! @breakingweather #txwx


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https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/955240466387259392
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:50 am

Neat video of a waterspout that touches land.

@WeatherNation
RARE TORNADO - Check out this waterspout over Humboldt Bay, CA on Thursday that moved onto land...all captured on security footage! @NWSEureka says it is the 1st confirmed tornado in the forecast area since the Fort Bragg tornado Dec. 5, 1998 #cawx #tornado #waterspout




https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/957054657859223552
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:24 am

So far preliminary data has only 16 reports of Tornadoes and that is below average for early Febuary. On this date (Febuary 5) in 2008 the Super Tuesday outbreak occured.

@WeatherNation
#OTD in 2008, the “Super Tuesday” tornado outbreak. 87 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S.. Three were killed in Alabama by an EF-4 tornado near Moulton. #SuperTuesday #SevereWX


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https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/960530070182875136
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:40 pm

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a corridor from
northeast Texas through the Mississippi Delta region late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by a risk for severe hail
and gusty winds.

...Discussion...
Blocking within the large-scale mid/upper flow will remain present
west of the Pacific coast through this period. The mid-latitude
high/ridging portion of this regime appears likely to remain the
most amplified, with a series of cold intrusions continuing to
develop southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, beneath northwest
flow to the east of the ridge. At the same time, however, low-level
moistening also continues across parts of the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico into the lower Rio Grande Valley. A northeastward surge of
this air across the lower Mississippi Valley into the portions of
the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys appears possible by late Tuesday night.
Models suggest that this will occur downstream of one short wave
trough within the mid-latitude westerlies, forecast to dig through
the southern Rockies, in association with one or two lower amplitude
impulses preceding it, within a belt of westerlies emanating from
the subtropical eastern Pacific.

...Texas through the Mid South/central Gulf States...
It appears possible that destabilization associated with the
moisture influx, in the presence of initially weak mid-level capping
and ascent associated with low-level warm advection, may be
sufficient to support scattered thunderstorm activity with somewhat
increasing probabilities from upper Texas coastal areas through
portions of southern Louisiana and Mississippi during the day
Tuesday. However, guidance is generally suggestive that the more
substantive increase in convective potential will take place late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, roughly in a corridor
from parts of north central/northeast Texas toward the Mississippi
Delta region. This is expected to occur coincident with
strengthening of south/southwesterly 850 mb flow to 30-50+ kt, along
a tightening low-level frontal zone, beneath increasingly divergent
upper flow (associated with at least one subtropical perturbation
and the right entrance region of a strengthening upper jet within
the mid-latitude westerlies).

The bulk of the thunderstorm development seems likely to form above
at least a shallow, but substantive near-surface stable layer, to
the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, by early
Tuesday evening, it appears that elevated moisture return could be
sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, with
higher CAPE over central through northeast Texas, decreasing in
magnitude to the northeast. Coupled with favorable shear within the
inflow layer, and perhaps through the convective layer, the
environment may become at least marginally conducive to the
generation of severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly
widespread across the Ark-La-Texas and Mid South by late Tuesday
night.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2018

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:14 pm

@NWStornado
Tornado Warning including Boothville LA, Triumph LA, Venice LA until 12:30 PM CST




https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/960936800104611842
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:54 pm

Interesting articule about the drought of powerful tornadoes in the past few years in the U.S.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ign=buffer
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#15 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:48 pm

Looks like we could be entering a more active severe weather pattern across the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley next week with several troughs digging into the SW US.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:25 pm

An EF1 tornado near Pittsburgh.

@NWSPittsburgh
Confirmed EF1 tornado in Uniontown occurred last night with winds up to 105 mph. 1st recorded tornado in NWS Pittsburgh area of responsibility during February since 1950.




https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/964564737278337024
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:09 pm

@NWSSPC
11:29am CST #SPC Day2 Outlook Enhanced Risk: from the arklatex to the lower ohio valley http://go.usa.gov/YW34


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https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/967089575003901952
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#18 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:28 am

This could be an interesting day in Northern Alabama.....


00
FXUS64 KBMX 191215
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
For Dense Fog Expansion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Confidence is increasing in the severe weather potential for this
afternoon and evening. The threat for tornadoes has also increased,
and a strong tornado or two will be possible across northern
portions of Central Alabama as well. It now appears that there may
be two waves of severe weather, with a first wave during the
early/mid afternoon hours which is more isolated/conditional,
followed by the main wave during the late afternoon/evening hours.
The severe weather starting time was bumped earlier to 2 PM to
account for the first wave, while the second wave has trended a bit
slower resulting in the ending time being pushed back to 2 AM,
mainly for southern/eastern areas. More on these waves below.

A lead shortwave is currently pushing into western portions of the
state, indicated by pronounced drying in mid-level water vapor
imagery. This is producing some light showers north of the warm
front, with an MCS now well southeast of the area over the FL
panhandle and southern GA. The radar is clear over southern MS and
LA, suggesting the warm front should not have much trouble lifting
northward. Scattered clusters of warm advection thunderstorms are
located over northern MS and western TN. It`s not out of the
question that these could clip far northwest portions of Central
Alabama during the early morning hours with the possibility of hail.
Further west, a broken pre-frontal line of storms is located over
far eastern OK and into far NE TX ahead of the main upper low of
interest. These are expected to lift well northeast of Central AL.
Will note that they extend a bit further south than expected, so
that is something to monitor, but the southern end will probably
weaken as it encounters a more stable air mass over AR and northern
LA. The surface low is located over northern OK, with an occluded
front extending southward to a triple point near where OK/AR/TX come
together. A cold front/dry line extends southward from the triple
point. A warm front extends eastward all the way into far southern
Central Alabama.

Patchy fog will be possible this morning along and north of the warm
front with a low stratus deck over the area as well. The warm front
should lift northward this morning with broken sunshine developing.
This will result in heating, and combined with moist low-levels and
steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML, CAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg will develop, with 60 kts of 0-6 km deep layer shear.
This high CAPE/high shear parameter space is supportive of a
significant severe threat. Models indicate a weak wave at 700mb
lifting across the area over the open warm sector during the
afternoon hours, ahead of the main upper-level forcing associated
with the upper low and the cold front/dry line at the surface.
Almost all models show some light QPF developing with this feature,
but differ regarding whether there will be any deep convection or
just scattered showers. The 3km NAM and a couple runs of the HRRR
suggest isolated convection/supercells are possible. This will be at
peak heating and the cap is not particularly strong, so it at least
seems plausible. All modes of severe weather would be possible with
any isolated discrete supercells that do form. Also of note is a
well defined fine line on radar that the storms in northeast TX are
forming on, which may be indicative of an outflow boundary/bore,
which could cause early initiation as it moves eastward. This first
wave complicates the timing graphic, resulting in a much broader
threat timeframe, with the first wave starting as early as 2 PM.
It`s also unclear what effect this first wave will have on the
second wave, but current thinking is that it won`t have much of an
effect.

The second main/most widespread wave of storms will develop over
northern MS/northwest AL as height falls and the mid-level speed max
associated with the upper low and low amplitude trough interact with
the dry line at the surface. Shear profiles favor a fast-moving
broken line of supercells that will race eastward across the area
during the late afternoon and evening. Model consensus excluding the
GFS now indicates that winds ahead of this line will remain backed
in a southerly direction, which is also indicated in the HREF mean
winds. This results in greater 0-1km SRH and more favorable critical
angles. The line of supercells looks to cross the area during the
favorable early evening transition period of increased low-level
shear. Therefore, it appears that the threat for tornadoes including
the potential for a strong tornado or two across the northern half
of Central Alabama has increased. This will ultimately depend on
storm scale details and what effects the first wave has. The threat
of large hail, including significant hail >2" diameter continues
given the fat CAPE profiles, and many SARS significant hail analogs.
Isolated hail up to baseball size may be possible. The threat will
end by midnight for many, except for southeast and far south-central
portions of Central Alabama where it will continue through around
2AM. The enhanced risk area in our local impact graphics remains on
track, and lines up well with the >40% neighborhood probability of
updraft helicity > 75 m2/s2 in the HREF CAM ensemble. Not everyone
will see severe storms today given the scattered nature of the
storms, but those that do will see some intense storms. Everyone
should remain weather aware.

32/Davis

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

As the main wave of showers and storms exit the area, the main
upper low will swing into the area on Tuesday and slowly work
through the area. Scattered light showers will be possible
throughout the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night along with
cooler temperatures. Overall the consensus of the models clear the
rain out around Midnight, before the temperatures can drop into
the 30s.

Drier air filters into the region on Wednesday and will hang out
for several days. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. We will need to
monitor Wednesday and Thursday morning for possible freezes, but
Thursday appears most probable for at least a frost across the
northern 2/3rds of the area. Will continue to mention the cold in
the HWO for Thursday morning. Temperatures will continue to modify
through Friday with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 60s/70s on
Friday.

Rain will begin to filter back into the region Friday night into
Saturday as the next system works closer to the area. There are
quite some model inconsistencies right now as the GFS tries to
push a front through Saturday night into Sunday and then lift it
back north, while the Euro keeps the front draped across the north
and never really pushes through. Either way we will will remain on
the active side of the weather and will continue to have
precipitation chances in through the end of the period.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Looking at some isolated to scattered showers mainly across the
north this morning. There could be an isolated thunderstorm as
well, but would only be a possible impact to BHM, ANB, and ASN.
Did not include at this time as chances remain low. The main show
will come late in the afternoon and into the evening with TSRA as
the boundary moves into the area. MVFR cigs will be around
tonight with some IFR as well. Storms may be strong/severe during
the later part of the forecast as the boundary moves in. Majority
of the rain will end after 06Z in the north and 09Z in the south,
with MVFR clouds building back into the area late.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this morning as a warm
front lifts north of the area. Low clouds will be in place across
the area, with some patchy fog generally south of a Geiger to
Montgomery line. Severe thunderstorms are expected during the late
afternoon and evening hours as a line of storms moves through the
area from west to east. Light showers are possible Tuesday, before
dry conditions arrive by Wednesday. RH values will be elevated the
next couple days. Low clouds and patchy fog are possible again on
Monday night. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 75 52 60 34 51 / 80 90 40 30 0
Anniston 75 54 64 35 53 / 70 90 40 30 0
Birmingham 78 54 61 37 56 / 80 80 40 20 0
Tuscaloosa 80 52 59 37 60 / 80 70 30 10 0
Calera 78 55 62 37 59 / 70 80 30 20 0
Auburn 76 60 68 38 58 / 40 70 30 20 0
Montgomery 81 58 67 39 62 / 40 60 30 10 0
Troy 81 62 71 41 62 / 50 50 20 10 0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chambers...
Chilton...Clay...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...
Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...Shelby...Sumter...
Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#19 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:46 am

Tor Con of 7...


TODAY 3/19
Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in the afternoon into the overnight. Severe thunderstorms in north and east-central MS, AL, GA, FL panhandle and northeast FL, TN except northwest and northeast. TORCON - 7 north AL; 6 TN areas, central AL, northwest GA; 5 northeast MS, central GA; 4 east-central MS; 3 south AL, south GA; 2-3 FL areas

A surface low in southeast KS and an upper low in northeast KS in the morning will push eastward, with the surface low moving into TN and a warm front pushing into southeast TN to central GA. 5000 foot winds are initially weak, but become moderate by evening. Strong low-level shear develops over TN, north AL and northwest GA near the warm front and surface low, while moderately strong instability develops south of the warm front. Instability is lower in north-central TN, and there is uncertainty there over how severe storms will become.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#20 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:58 am

Confidence has increased such that an upgrade to a 15% significant tornado area and Moderate risk is expected with the 1130am CDT Day 1 Convective Outlook. The potential exists for longer-lived supercells and damaging tornadoes focused across north-central and northern AL and far southern middle TN beginning during the late afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far northwest GA later this evening. Refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion (MCD) 0143 on our webpage for more details: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0143.html
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