2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

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cycloneye
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2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:38 pm

Let's see how the 2018 severe season is in terms on how active it will be. 2017 had 1,522 tornadoes.(Still can change as is preliminary)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#torgraph

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Image

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:43 pm

Maybe the severe season begins early with a change to a warmer pattern after mid January?

@BenNollWeather
We see a much milder pattern emerging across the central & eastern U.S. during mid Jan to early Feb. A significant mid-winter thaw in the cards as #LaNiña-like tropical forcing (i.e. MJO) returns.




https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/949239216189317120
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:24 pm

Impressive image.

@StormVisuals
Storm moving offshore over northeast Lake Okeechobee. Possible remnant funnel on leading edge of rain core. #flwx @NWSMiami @NWSMelbourne


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https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/951200031025090561
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:14 pm

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern OH...WV...western
MD...PA...NY...VT...and northern NH

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 130004Z - 130600Z

SUMMARY...An initial transition from rain to freezing rain, then to
sleet and snow will occur this evening as a cold front moves
eastward.

DISCUSSION...23Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
northern VT into central NY/PA, and then continuing into western MD
and WV. The cold front will develop generally east-southeastward
through 06Z, with the 32F surface isotherm lagging the initial wind
shift by about 90-100 miles. A mid/upper-level trough/low centered
over KY/TN will continue moving east-northeastward this evening.
Large-scale lift associated with the upper trough/low has promoted a
broad area of mostly light to moderate precipitation from WV
northward to NY.

Recent surface observations and local storm reports indicate a
relatively narrow corridor of freezing rain is occurring
along/behind the surface freezing-line intersection with the ongoing
light/moderate rain. Freezing rain rates of at least several
hundredths of an inch per hour will be likely, with rates up to 0.10
inch per hour possible in the heaviest showers. These higher rates
appear more likely across northern PA into south-central NY over the
next few hours as an area of moderate to locally heavy rain moves
across this region and surface temperatures fall below freezing.

A transition to sleet and then snow will occur as a residual
low-level warm nose centered around 900-750 mb quickly erodes with
the approach of the mid/upper level trough/low. Some of the snow may
become heavy at times, with rates around 1 inch per hour, especially
across western PA/NY into southeastern where this transition to snow
is already occurring.

..Gleason.. 01/13/2018
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:57 pm

Jeff_Piotrowski
Storm chasing today NE/TX near Paris. Tornado watch soon OK/TX.




https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/955166848277913601
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:07 pm

Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma through western
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211913Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21Z across
northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and subsequently increase in
coverage and intensity. Supercells and bowing line segments with
damaging wind and a few tornadoes should be the primary threats. A
tornado watch will probably be needed before 21Z.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a dryline extends from northeast KS
through west-central OK to north-central and southwest TX. Pacific
front will merge with the dryline later this afternoon, and this
boundary will continue through the southern Plains this evening as a
surface low consolidates over eastern KS in association with a
progressive shortwave trough. Modifying continental-polar air with
low 60s F dewpoints has advected through the warm sector beneath
modest lapse rates where objective analysis shows a corridor of
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE from central and northeast TX into southeast OK.
WV imagery indicates mid-upper level moistening and clouds resulting
from a band of deeper forcing for ascent moving through eastern OK
and northeast TX, and scattered showers are already developing over
northeast TX in association with this process. RAP soundings
indicate a capping inversion still in place around 750 mb, but
ascent in the 850-500 mb layer layer will eventually erode the
inversion, contributing to thunderstorm development by 20-21Z.
Vertical wind shear will increase as the low-level jet strengthens
within exit region of the approaching mid-upper jet with large 0-1
km hodographs and effective-bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. This
environment should support organized storms including a few discrete
supercells and bowing line segments as storms intensify later this
afternoon and evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/21/2018
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:10 pm


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
Northeastern Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly increase in coverage
and intensity this afternoon into this evening from north and
northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
in advance of a strong storm system progressing eastward over the
Great Plains. The storm environment will support some threat for
semi-discrete supercells for the next few hours, and then convection
should gradually grow upscale into more of a squall line tonight. A
few tornadoes with the supercells and/or embedded circulations, as
well as damaging winds with bowing segments, will be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Harrison AR
to 50 miles south southwest of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.

...Thompson


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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:24 pm

Tornado Warning including Whitesboro OK until 4:45 PM CST

Image



https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/955202528660029440
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:52 pm

@ReedTimmerAccu
Dangerous tornado warned supercell near Tool, Texas as of 6:45 pm heading northeast in the direction of the Canton TX area! @breakingweather #txwx


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https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/955240466387259392
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:50 am

Neat video of a waterspout that touches land.

@WeatherNation
RARE TORNADO - Check out this waterspout over Humboldt Bay, CA on Thursday that moved onto land...all captured on security footage! @NWSEureka says it is the 1st confirmed tornado in the forecast area since the Fort Bragg tornado Dec. 5, 1998 #cawx #tornado #waterspout




https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/957054657859223552
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:24 am

So far preliminary data has only 16 reports of Tornadoes and that is below average for early Febuary. On this date (Febuary 5) in 2008 the Super Tuesday outbreak occured.

@WeatherNation
#OTD in 2008, the “Super Tuesday” tornado outbreak. 87 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S.. Three were killed in Alabama by an EF-4 tornado near Moulton. #SuperTuesday #SevereWX


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https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/960530070182875136
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:40 pm

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop within a corridor from
northeast Texas through the Mississippi Delta region late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by a risk for severe hail
and gusty winds.

...Discussion...
Blocking within the large-scale mid/upper flow will remain present
west of the Pacific coast through this period. The mid-latitude
high/ridging portion of this regime appears likely to remain the
most amplified, with a series of cold intrusions continuing to
develop southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, beneath northwest
flow to the east of the ridge. At the same time, however, low-level
moistening also continues across parts of the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico into the lower Rio Grande Valley. A northeastward surge of
this air across the lower Mississippi Valley into the portions of
the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys appears possible by late Tuesday night.
Models suggest that this will occur downstream of one short wave
trough within the mid-latitude westerlies, forecast to dig through
the southern Rockies, in association with one or two lower amplitude
impulses preceding it, within a belt of westerlies emanating from
the subtropical eastern Pacific.

...Texas through the Mid South/central Gulf States...
It appears possible that destabilization associated with the
moisture influx, in the presence of initially weak mid-level capping
and ascent associated with low-level warm advection, may be
sufficient to support scattered thunderstorm activity with somewhat
increasing probabilities from upper Texas coastal areas through
portions of southern Louisiana and Mississippi during the day
Tuesday. However, guidance is generally suggestive that the more
substantive increase in convective potential will take place late
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, roughly in a corridor
from parts of north central/northeast Texas toward the Mississippi
Delta region. This is expected to occur coincident with
strengthening of south/southwesterly 850 mb flow to 30-50+ kt, along
a tightening low-level frontal zone, beneath increasingly divergent
upper flow (associated with at least one subtropical perturbation
and the right entrance region of a strengthening upper jet within
the mid-latitude westerlies).

The bulk of the thunderstorm development seems likely to form above
at least a shallow, but substantive near-surface stable layer, to
the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, by early
Tuesday evening, it appears that elevated moisture return could be
sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, with
higher CAPE over central through northeast Texas, decreasing in
magnitude to the northeast. Coupled with favorable shear within the
inflow layer, and perhaps through the convective layer, the
environment may become at least marginally conducive to the
generation of severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly
widespread across the Ark-La-Texas and Mid South by late Tuesday
night.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2018

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:14 pm

@NWStornado
Tornado Warning including Boothville LA, Triumph LA, Venice LA until 12:30 PM CST




https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/960936800104611842
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:54 pm

Interesting articule about the drought of powerful tornadoes in the past few years in the U.S.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ign=buffer
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#15 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:48 pm

Looks like we could be entering a more active severe weather pattern across the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley next week with several troughs digging into the SW US.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:25 pm

An EF1 tornado near Pittsburgh.

@NWSPittsburgh
Confirmed EF1 tornado in Uniontown occurred last night with winds up to 105 mph. 1st recorded tornado in NWS Pittsburgh area of responsibility during February since 1950.




https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/964564737278337024
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