Texas Fall 2018

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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#701 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:56 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:I'm waiting with excitement for the nam as it's temps are as cold or alittle colder than the Canadian with the front at 84 hours. So you guys think Durant Oklahoma could receive some sleet ? This is awesome :) I'm so excited for this winter


It's possible it could be mixed in with rain yeah

Otherwise I just see a really cold rain but I mean it is mid October, its really really early for frozen things. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#702 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:05 pm

By the middle of next week DFW will be ahead of 2015 for rainfall. However, 2015 finished strong with over 20" falling b/w October 21 and the EOY. Also, there is a good chance 2018 moves into the Top 10 wettest years at DFW next week. With el nino coming on a Top 5 year seems likely. Surely DFW can't break the all-time wettest year again after just breaking it in 2015?!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#703 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:By the middle of next week DFW will be ahead of 2015 for rainfall. However, 2015 finished strong with over 20" falling b/w October 21 and the EOY. Also, there is a good chance 2018 moves into the Top 10 wettest years at DFW next week. With el nino coming on a Top 5 year seems likely. Surely DFW can't break the all-time wettest year again after just breaking it in 2015?!


Let's just hope we don't repeat the day after Christmas of 2015 :eek: We had a pretty low spring tornado wise, I due wonder if the El Nino causes an uptick in December.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#704 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:21 pm

GFS would be pretty close to me seeing my first few flakes. Rain might not be heavy enough but maybe I'll see something. I'll have to stay up late for it though.


Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#705 Postby BrokenGlass » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:45 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
Brent wrote:Yeah i was giving a lot on time on Michael crazy storm 3rd strongest US landfall in history :double:

Back to locally though the gfs has 4 days next week Dallas is in the 50s for highs and the rain never completely ends. Seems were going quickly to winter :lol:


Dallas may struggle to make it out of the 40's...

More evidence that DFW has only 2 seasons...summer and winter.


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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#706 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:07 pm

Of note for DFW, next Monday and Tuesday the record "lowest" high temperature on record is 60F for both days. Monday's high may be around midnight but has a good shot of beating that. Tuesday likely beats that also.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#707 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:19 pm

BrokenGlass wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
Brent wrote:Yeah i was giving a lot on time on Michael crazy storm 3rd strongest US landfall in history :double:

Back to locally though the gfs has 4 days next week Dallas is in the 50s for highs and the rain never completely ends. Seems were going quickly to winter :lol:


Dallas may struggle to make it out of the 40's...

More evidence that DFW has only 2 seasons...summer and winter.


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let's just hope we have a winter this year. :P
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#708 Postby Haris » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:12 pm

Can Friday just frigging pass!

I want the rain and cold temps ASAP!

WPC has CTX in the 2-6" range!

Highs low 50s :cold: :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#709 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:15 pm

Euro Weeklies are wet and cold.

The Weeklies mean of 8"+ at DFW would put 2018 in the Top 5 going into the last of November. #RecordWatch
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#710 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:35 pm

I am liking this split flow and trough/cutoff in the southwest. In winter this kind of pattern would yield ice and snow.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#711 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 pm

BrokenGlass wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
Brent wrote:Yeah i was giving a lot on time on Michael crazy storm 3rd strongest US landfall in history :double:

Back to locally though the gfs has 4 days next week Dallas is in the 50s for highs and the rain never completely ends. Seems were going quickly to winter :lol:


Dallas may struggle to make it out of the 40's...

More evidence that DFW has only 2 seasons...summer and winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


I used to work with a driller (native Texas born) who said,

There are two seasons in Texas,...Summer and cooler.
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#712 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 pm

Really hoping we get an early winter storm this year... I hate waiting especially when it may never happen :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#713 Postby Cerlin » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:45 pm

I know the chances of DFW getting any wintry precipitation by Wednesday are pretty much impossible and not forecasted at all...but i’m still going to hope because that’s what I like to do. :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#714 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:58 am

Quite a lot of rain.

Image

And snow in the panhandle

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#715 Postby DonWrk » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:06 am

No flood watches on the way? Getting good rain here this morning. Yesterday there was water just running through pasture land! Ponds are still flowing good even before this rain, I can't imagine what even 3-4 more inches will do.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#716 Postby newtotex » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:10 am

TheProfessor wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:By the middle of next week DFW will be ahead of 2015 for rainfall. However, 2015 finished strong with over 20" falling b/w October 21 and the EOY. Also, there is a good chance 2018 moves into the Top 10 wettest years at DFW next week. With el nino coming on a Top 5 year seems likely. Surely DFW can't break the all-time wettest year again after just breaking it in 2015?!


Let's just hope we don't repeat the day after Christmas of 2015 :eek: We had a pretty low spring tornado wise, I due wonder if the El Nino causes an uptick in December.



I was pretty surprised by this tornado. I grew up in Alabama and this event was much more akin to our late Fall/early Winter tornado events
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#717 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:28 am

Winter owes much of Texas for the lack of the last 3 years, I think we'll see payback this year for sure. NTX average first freeze is November 22nd, I think will see the first freeze much earlier, say late October first week of November.

My firewood order is in, hope to have it delivered on the next sunny day (Next week) and get it stored, and I'm thinking a full cord my not be enough this winter. :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#718 Postby gboudx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:29 am

From jeff:

Amplified upper air pattern post Michael and on the backside of approaching TS Sergio into Baja will drive a strong cold front across TX on Monday. This will be a significant cold front with strong cold air advection.

Remains of Sergio will move across TX today into Saturday with widespread rainfall focusing mainly across north Texas. Lower pressures with this feature will result in a return of onshore flow over SE TX and a rise in moisture and humidity levels this weekend.

Strong front will begin to surge down the plains on Sunday as the remains of Sergio depart to the east and this front will arrive into TX Sunday night and blast off the coast sometime on Monday. Strong cold air advection will onset post front with temperatures rapidly falling behind the front. Temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 60’s behind the front and maybe even the upper 50’s during the day on Monday. Frontal slope is shallow (only around 2000-3000ft thick and SW winds above that layer will bring moisture back over the surface cool dome resulting in cloudy conditions with periods of rain Tuesday-Thursday. Cold air advection coupled with clouds and rain will keep temperatures cool to cold during this period with lows in the 50’s and highs possibly only near 60. Gusty north winds will make it feel much colder.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#719 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:06 am

This may increase in coverage once days 3-5 shows up within range

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#720 Postby Haris » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:35 am

NAM has a high of 43 in Austin !!!! :cold:
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