bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:12z NAM. ICON will be running soon. 850mb temps will fall below freezing very quickly and hard when the 500mb shortwave passes through.
Another major difference from last year is the depth ofthe cold. The entire column is well below freezing before the surface. The dreaded warm nose was always there last winter, not that it ever really mattered lol
Yes! I do expect we see colder aloft temperatures generically this season. Evident of stronger shortwaves, they are more common during such ENSO events because of lower heights in general. It's more of a recipe for snow years than ice years.
We may see several events this season when 850mb temps are below freezing while surface sits at 33-34. Usually the kind that over-performs when you have marginal events.