Texas Fall 2018

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1481 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:55 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12z NAM. ICON will be running soon. 850mb temps will fall below freezing very quickly and hard when the 500mb shortwave passes through.

https://images2.imgbox.com/13/f5/JOwSBCpO_o.gif


Another major difference from last year is the depth ofthe cold. The entire column is well below freezing before the surface. The dreaded warm nose was always there last winter, not that it ever really mattered lol


Yes! I do expect we see colder aloft temperatures generically this season. Evident of stronger shortwaves, they are more common during such ENSO events because of lower heights in general. It's more of a recipe for snow years than ice years.

We may see several events this season when 850mb temps are below freezing while surface sits at 33-34. Usually the kind that over-performs when you have marginal events.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1482 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:32 am

12z GFS keeps the bulk of snow NW of DFW (the Falls!) but ends as a little bit of snow. CMC keeps it NW like ICON.

Trend this morning is that there is a partial phase with the northern vorticity. Timing and strength of cold is pivotal. Let us give some hope the models are underplaying CAA. HP in the range of upper 1040s like the NAM is ideal.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1483 Postby Haris » Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:32 pm

Got an inch last night. 1.7” for November. Niño is amazing. Moisture is so easy to get. 40” for the year
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1484 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:19 pm

Impressive regardless of time of year or overall pattern!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1485 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:32 pm

Euro just doesn't want to snow in most of N TX :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1486 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:39 pm

Wow the Euro is chilly for me. Starts off Wednesday at 16 degrees, warms a bit but by 6 PM it gets back down to 16 degrees. I don't think I'm ready for that kind of cold yet. :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1487 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:55 pm

I had to deliver some hay in town today and noticed that they have treated all of the overpasses in big city WF. Weird flex but ok.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1488 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:11 pm

All models show a very similar upper air pattern Monday. And really the other factors are all very similar, the two factors are how much can the low levels cool and just how much moisture in on the backside of the low. Models range from the low 30s (NAM) to low 40s (Euro).
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1489 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:20 pm

Seems like this is gonna be a nowcast type of event.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1490 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:33 pm

gboudx wrote:Seems like this is gonna be a nowcast type of event.

As is typical. Nice to get the winter model watching off to a fast start though.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1491 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:10 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:How could it do this all of the sudden?


I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.


Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.


The Thanksgiving Day Ice Bowl...do we count that as "Snow" or "other"? I'll never forget that, going to school it was 70, came out in the afternoon it was sleeting
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1492 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:29 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.


Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.


The Thanksgiving Day Ice Bowl...do we count that as "Snow" or "other"? I'll never forget that, going to school it was 70, came out in the afternoon it was sleeting


What school made you attend on Thanksgiving Day?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1493 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:39 pm

The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1494 Postby Portastorm » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.


You could have stopped after the first sentence and your statement would be true most days of the year. :wink:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1495 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:03 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.

2 runs in a row with very similar results. It is still a tad colder than the other models but it is really very similar to all of the other models otherwise. Doubt we will really have a good handle until Sunday though this year I will tend to bet on more moisture.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1496 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:14 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.

2 runs in a row with very similar results. It is still a tad colder than the other models but it is really very similar to all of the other models otherwise. Doubt we will really have a good handle until Sunday though this year I will tend to bet on more moisture.


The trough is a tad bit further south this run..good trend.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1497 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:19 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.


You could have stopped after the first sentence and your statement would be true most days of the year. :wink:


It depends on what year :ggreen:. In 2009-2010 the NAM a few times outperformed the GFS and Euro for a couple of NTX snow events *including the big one*. Sometimes climo can haze the globals and they don't perform well with cold air movement and/or moisture. In an El Nino sometimes you have to take that into consideration :wink:. So depends on the year my old friend :cheesy: :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1498 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:20 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is nuts. It has snow in basically all of NTX. Wichita Falls area has anywhere from like 5-10” and it has a behemoth 1058 mb high in NW Wyoming and at the end of the run it has the high in New Mexico at 1052.

2 runs in a row with very similar results. It is still a tad colder than the other models but it is really very similar to all of the other models otherwise. Doubt we will really have a good handle until Sunday though this year I will tend to bet on more moisture.


I would watch the temperatures aloft over the weekend upstream. It can be telling.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1499 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:29 pm

DFW is also running -1.1F below normal in November so far. Is it possible we may now have 3 consecutive below normal months?! For the 2010s this is unfathomable :lol:. Also would be the first below normal Fall since George Washington was President it feels like.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1500 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:01 pm

Haris wrote:Got an inch last night. 1.7” for November. Niño is amazing. Moisture is so easy to get. 40” for the year


We got 1.95” last night/this morning here and we’ve been sitting in the low to mid 50’s all day long here with mostly cloudy conditions and 15-20mph winds. Pretty chilly out there considering we were in the upper 80’s here a couple days ago.
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