Texas Fall 2018

[bubba hotep]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

The 12z GEFS is one of the "snowier" runs in a while and it shows multiple options, including N. Texas snow. However, overall it is still pretty weak with no clear winter wx signal.

[Ralph's Weather]

The early week storm on the 12Z Euro would be great if it could track along I-20 vs north of I-40. Let'see how that storm trends, but our best chances are behind that initial storm.

[South Texas Storms]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

[bubba hotep]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

There are rules to follow. You must respect climo!

[davidiowx]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

This right here.. +500

[weatherdude1108]

Fantasy land? Fun to look at.
It's the solar minimum.

[Brent]

hour 144 beyond, cold air stuck in TX. freezing and snowy start to December.

12z gfs

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

Yeah but its one thing to miss to the north its quite another to miss to the south repeatedly

[South Texas Storms]

After last winter, I'll fight the GFS if that run verifies! South and Central Texas don't deserve any snow this winter lol

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

There are rules to follow. You must respect climo!

Fair enough...but when we rarely get snow and you folks up north don't, you should let us enjoy it and not complain. It's a natural treasure down here, and we love it just as much as yall do!

[Brent]

Please. I can't tell you how many times south and central TX missed out on snow when north TX cashed in. Don't even start.

There are rules to follow. You must respect climo!

Fair enough...but when we rarely get snow and you folks up north don't, you should let us enjoy it and not complain. It's a natural treasure down here, and we love it just as much as yall do!

I'm fine with that as long as we make it up for it... Still waiting lol

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are pretty Meh...

[Cpv17]

Euro Weeklies are pretty Meh...

Yeah I’m not really expecting much anytime soon. We will have to be patient I believe.

[Ntxw]

Boy has this been trending south on the GFS. It's still a panhandle and Oklahoma snowstorm but you can't deny there have been continuous changes form virtually nothing. Jog a little more south, 100+ hours still. Going to say it again, the trend south is the way to go. The path of least resistance.



You don't drive stuff into a wall, block. You go around it.

[Brent]

That Sunday storm definitely caught my eye this run

I am not giving up on a threat in the next couple weeks for sure

[Ntxw]

That Sunday storm definitely caught my eye this run

I am not giving up on a threat in the next couple weeks for sure

Big storms are not getting sheared out this season so far. They are phasing or partially phasing, developing closed lows as they cross the southern plains. This is likely the conundrum we face this winter like in 2009-2010. Lots of model misses to the north but eventually one is going to beat it. We are not getting the sheared slop messes of the past 2-3 winters.

The lower heights and amplified pattern is giving them a chance to deepen.

[SnowintheFalls]

Seems our more prominent local met is all in for this winter calling for below average temps and above average moisture. He beleives there will be multiple shots at wintry mischief echoing back to 2009 -10. I know this is echoing all the great discussions from this board but our local mets are typically very reserved with long term forecasts. Hoping for an exciting ride this winter!

[TheProfessor]

I'm all for a South trend for this Sunday and Monday storm. Heck I wouldn't mind tracking a cutoff low again(hopefully it would end up slightly further east initially lol). With the storm last week most of the models weren't catching on to the cut off low forming till about 72 hours out from the initial wave of energy minus the Icon, which had it appear off and on. If you look at the vorticity on the 0z run it actually looks like it's hanging some of that energy back just like the storm early last week. It will be interesting to see if this happens. If it becomes a trend where these bowling ball lows plow through Texas and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys a decent chunk of the eastern parts of the U.S could be in for a special winter.

[TheProfessor]

For example here is last weeks storm on 0z Tuesday the 13th.



Here's the run tonight for next week. Definitely not as defined, but we're still 180 hours out, a lot can change.



The 12z run from earlier today was even more defined.



Will definitely be interesting to track, you get a cut off low and some even colder air than last week and you could be looking at a much further widespread winter storm.

[Brent]

Seems our more prominent local met is all in for this winter calling for below average temps and above average moisture. He beleives there will be multiple shots at wintry mischief echoing back to 2009 -10. I know this is echoing all the great discussions from this board but our local mets are typically very reserved with long term forecasts. Hoping for an exciting ride this winter!

I'm seeing the 09-10 analog all over the place... I'd love nothing more than a repeat lol. Snow on Christmas Eve and a footer in February? Sign me up

[SnowintheFalls]

Seems our more prominent local met is all in for this winter calling for below average temps and above average moisture. He beleives there will be multiple shots at wintry mischief echoing back to 2009 -10. I know this is echoing all the great discussions from this board but our local mets are typically very reserved with long term forecasts. Hoping for an exciting ride this winter!

I'm seeing the 09-10 analog all over the place... I'd love nothing more than a repeat lol. Snow on Christmas Eve and a footer in February? Sign me up

Now all that's left is to figure out how to bribe Mother Nature to cooperate!

[Brent]

Seems our more prominent local met is all in for this winter calling for below average temps and above average moisture. He beleives there will be multiple shots at wintry mischief echoing back to 2009 -10. I know this is echoing all the great discussions from this board but our local mets are typically very reserved with long term forecasts. Hoping for an exciting ride this winter!

I'm seeing the 09-10 analog all over the place... I'd love nothing more than a repeat lol. Snow on Christmas Eve and a footer in February? Sign me up

Now all that's left is to figure out how to bribe Mother Nature to cooperate!

Right?

And i know the analogs have failed us before but this one just feels different to me

But ask me again in a couple months