Texas Spring 2020

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#101 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:01 pm

I think in April we could have some cold rains on deck. I'll take it. With us sliding into La nina, we will need ALL the rain that we can get. Our guy Ntx taught us that green grass in summer is better for us in the summer. Provides extra humidity, which can lead to summer storms.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#102 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:16 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I think in April we could have some cold rains on deck. I'll take it. With us sliding into La nina, we will need ALL the rain that we can get. Our guy Ntx taught us that green grass in summer is better for us in the summer. Provides extra humidity, which can lead to summer storms.


I haven't seen any indication on us moving towards La Nina, the current ENSO forecast has pretty much been a broken record since early December.....Neutral till otherwise noted :wink:


23 March 2020
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the Pacific Ocean.
The tropical atmospheric circulation is generally consistent with ENSO-neutral.
ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).*

A majority of models favor ENSOneutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2020. Only model that gives a chance on La Nina headed into late summer is the SST Outlook, and it would be a weak La Nina at that.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#103 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:56 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I think in April we could have some cold rains on deck. I'll take it. With us sliding into La nina, we will need ALL the rain that we can get. Our guy Ntx taught us that green grass in summer is better for us in the summer. Provides extra humidity, which can lead to summer storms.


Don't put much stock in ENSO models this time of year, Spring Forecast Barrier. Ultimately, I believe this wetter pattern across portions of Texas is a result of overall warming across the Pacific and ENSO probably plays a lesser role than in the past.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#104 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm

Interesting. Numerous models i've seen have shown us trending towards a La Nina. Either way. This time of year, i'm always scared of the approaching summer :cry:


Just looked at the Euro. Beautiful block in the arctic that would make January blush. Hopefully it will at least cool things down for us.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#105 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:42 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Interesting. Numerous models i've seen have shown us trending towards a La Nina. Either way. This time of year, i'm always scared of the approaching summer :cry:


Just looked at the Euro. Beautiful block in the arctic that would make January blush. Hopefully it will at least cool things down for us.



Please!
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#106 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm

well Dallas didn't get close to 90 today like I saw forecast

Small victories :lol:

my car is covered in tree crap though :roll:
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#107 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:20 pm

Brent wrote:well Dallas didn't get close to 90 today like I saw forecast

Small victories :lol:

my car is covered in tree crap though :roll:

Not sure what the official high was but the highest I saw on my phone today was 83. By early evening a cooler north breeze took me by surprise dropping temps to tbe upper 70's.
Last weekend in east Texas I saw the most pollen I have ever seen. The fine yellowish powder was everywhere. The strange thing was it had been raining yet with so many trees and bushes the pollen did not stop. My allergies were absolute hell.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#108 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:01 am

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
There are now forecasts when the Canadian model beats the Euro at 5-days. Environment Canada's global weather model has moved well ahead of the NOAA GFS -- amazing.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#109 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:15 am

Strong winds and lots of marble size hail in Arlington with down pouring rain.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#110 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:45 am

EnnisTx wrote:Strong winds and lots of marble size hail in Arlington with down pouring rain.


Pretty good 30% chance of storms event out this way in Collin County as well!
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#111 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:40 am

I haven't been very active here, the last few weeks have been pretty weird for me. Today is the 20 year anniversary of the storm that started it all for me. Usually I'd do some detailed write up, but it didn't happen this year. Anyways there's a moderate threat for tornadoes up in the Midwest and Northern Plains. Today could be another day where a kid takes up an interest in Meteorology.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#112 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:17 am

bubba hotep wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Strong winds and lots of marble size hail in Arlington with down pouring rain.


Pretty good 30% chance of storms event out this way in Collin County as well!


Ha that's what I was thinking
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#113 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:18 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I haven't been very active here, the last few weeks have been pretty weird for me. Today is the 20 year anniversary of the storm that started it all for me. Usually I'd do some detailed write up, but it didn't happen this year. Anyways there's a moderate threat for tornadoes up in the Midwest and Northern Plains. Today could be another day where a kid takes up an interest in Meteorology.


Hope you're doing ok. And yes, a severe weather outbreak looks likely in the Midwest today. Chicago could be near ground zero.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#114 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:53 pm

Jonesboro, Arkansas Tornado video. There are other good videos on Youtube. Some at very close range:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm_AK8vgv6o
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#115 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:04 am

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 6269223936


These are the types of tweets i continue to come across.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#116 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:32 am

Just going to look into the future for a bit, but with that we can watch how that future starts to shape up throughout the spring. The things to watch right now is if a drought develops over Florida, the northern Gulf coast continues to stay dry, southeast Texas continues to stay dry, and the Northeast Tx coast/Northwest Gulf get near normal to above normal rain fall. If nothing changes over the next two months then I think you'll see a powerful Bermuda high this Summer with steering that would typically send a storm towards the upper Texas coast or western La. Of course steering currents are never static and they may not be in place when a storm actually develops, but right now I think that could be the predominate pattern. Obviously that's way in the future, but I do think that's something we all need to think about come hurricane season. I know the virus is taking up all the talk right now, but come June 1st everyone on the coast needs to make sure they're ready, but I think people between NOLA and Houston should especially be ready.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#117 Postby Cerlin » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:53 am

Upcoming pattern looks very wet for DFW, as if we need more rain. Wish that could go to STX where I know they’re needing it (though GFS seems like it could be trending wetter)
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#118 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:17 am

Cerlin wrote:Upcoming pattern looks very wet for DFW, as if we need more rain. Wish that could go to STX where I know they’re needing it (though GFS seems like it could be trending wetter)


CPC forecast looks good for STX.
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#119 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:48 am

Portions of Texas upgraded to "Slight" for mainly wind and hail

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2020

#120 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:09 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Just going to look into the future for a bit, but with that we can watch how that future starts to shape up throughout the spring. The things to watch right now is if a drought develops over Florida, the northern Gulf coast continues to stay dry, southeast Texas continues to stay dry, and the Northeast Tx coast/Northwest Gulf get near normal to above normal rain fall. If nothing changes over the next two months then I think you'll see a powerful Bermuda high this Summer with steering that would typically send a storm towards the upper Texas coast or western La. Of course steering currents are never static and they may not be in place when a storm actually develops, but right now I think that could be the predominate pattern. Obviously that's way in the future, but I do think that's something we all need to think about come hurricane season. I know the virus is taking up all the talk right now, but come June 1st everyone on the coast needs to make sure they're ready, but I think people between NOLA and Houston should especially be ready.


Why’s all the rain staying north of the coastal areas along the Gulf coast? We’ve had a difficult time getting widespread heavy rains the past few months in SETX. Are other areas having the same problem?
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