Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Two major developments occuring with the weather actoss the peninsula in the days to come.

1. Hurricane Sally is bringing extreme impacts of torrential rainfall, and significant storm surge with potential across the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend for most of this week. There are some guidance projections of upward to 2 feet of rain in areas in the western panhandle as Sally moves very slowly inland over the next couple of days.





2. The model guidance builds a massive 1040 mb High into New England by Friday, which will build down the Eastern Unied States seaboard. This will bring a very strong Northeast and easterly fetch beginning Friday across the Florida East Coast. This potentially could be a very long duration event which lasts well into next week. Some model guidance indicating potential flooding event for Northeast Florida, with upwards to 8 inches of rainfall. This is definitely possible as when these nor'easters set up like this in this area, the low level convergence can bring localized severe flooding. Plus, a long duration Nor'easter would bring risks of strong winds, coastal flooding and considerable beach erosion .

So much to monitor in the coming days.....

[gatorcane]

The Euro is showing lows in the mid 60s down into Central Florida to around 70F all the way down into far inland South Florida on day 10 under breezy conditions with a taste of fall.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro is showing lows in the mid 60s down into Central Florida to around 70F all the way down into far inland South Florida on day 10 under breezy conditions with a taste of fall.

How can we trust the models when it comes to cold fronts this far out when we can't even trust them in the tropics?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here on Tampa Bay, I got more action from Hurricane Sally than from Hurricanes Michael, Dorian, or Isaias. We got pounded with bands Saturday afternoon and Sunday this past weekend; with gusts to 44 mph in st Pete and 46 near Clearwater. Obviously it was no Irma but it was definitely noticeable.

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO is positive so IF this were to verify I don’t see it penetrating much down the peninsula.

 https://twitter.com/paulfox13/status/1306237089672048640

[TheStormExpert]

Here on Tampa Bay, I got more action from Hurricane Sally than from Hurricanes Michael, Dorian, or Isaias. We got pounded with bands Saturday afternoon and Sunday this past weekend; with gusts to 44 mph in st Pete and 46 near Clearwater. Obviously it was no Irma but it was definitely noticeable.

I believe Sally was larger in size when compared to Michael. Not to mention it’s effects were sprawling.

[gatorcane]

The NAO is positive so IF this were to verify I don’t see it penetrating much down the peninsula.

https://twitter.com/paulfox13/status/1306237089672048640

Today’s Euro has mid 60s along the I-4 corridor for Wed AM with mid to upper 50s across northern Florida. Will feel a bit like fall next week across much of Florida if this verifies. South Florida will probably miss out but the wind shift to the NE this weekend will feel a bit like fall though the temps don’t look to drop much.

[toad strangler]

The NAO is positive so IF this were to verify I don’t see it penetrating much down the peninsula.

https://twitter.com/paulfox13/status/1306237089672048640

Today’s Euro has mid 60s along the I-4 corridor for Wed AM with mid to upper 50s across northern Florida. Will feel a bit like fall next week across much of Florida if this verifies. South Florida will probably miss out but the wind shift to the NE this weekend will feel a bit like fall though the temps don’t look to drop much.

Only a true Floridian thinks Florida has a Fall

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO is positive so IF this were to verify I don’t see it penetrating much down the peninsula.

https://twitter.com/paulfox13/status/1306237089672048640

Today’s Euro has mid 60s along the I-4 corridor for Wed AM with mid to upper 50s across northern Florida. Will feel a bit like fall next week across much of Florida if this verifies. South Florida will probably miss out but the wind shift to the NE this weekend will feel a bit like fall though the temps don’t look to drop much.

Only a true Floridian thinks Florida has a Fall

Florida barely even has a winter, if you want to call it that!

Really this state has five unique seasons. Rainy Season, Hurricane Season, Love-bug Season, Snowbird Season, and Summer.

[northjaxpro]

Thankfully the September lovebug season has not been too bad, at least up here in Jacksonville. I have seen very few of them. I think the rain virtually every day has kept them at bay.

Nor'easter still on track to occur here this weekend, with a coastal trough forecast to develop just off the Northeast Florida coast by Sunday.morning. Some models are dryiing it out here beginning Tuesday.

[TheStormExpert]

Hope no one is getting too complacent in regards to the threat of a hurricane here in Florida, especially South Florida. 60% of Florida hurricane strikes happened after September 10th.

[northjaxpro]

Hope no one is getting too complacent in regards to the threat of a hurricane here in Florida, especially South Florida. 60% of Florida hurricane strikes happened after September 10th.

https://i.ibb.co/C7RX0Gk/6-F382669-A272-48-B4-9556-062560-C4-DA7-F.jpg

I have to believe as insane as this season continues to be that everyone BETTER be on the alert across the peninsula, and no type of complacency will occur. This especially now, after Sally decimated the panhandle, and especially with what likely will be a hyperactive October coming up.

[gatorcane]

Here comes the anomalously strong high building down the eastern seaboard and a taste of fall for Florida. Even for south Florida, looks like highs only in the mid 80s under breezy NE winds.

[TheStormExpert]

Here comes the anomalously strong high building down the eastern seaboard and a taste of fall for Florida. Even for south Florida, looks like highs only in the mid 80s under breezy NE winds.

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw92xkPR/gfs-T2ma-us-fh0-120.gif

Looks like we're going to get our first cool front since early May here in South Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO is about to tank negative and the PNA is hovering near neutral to positive, so maybe more cold fronts?

[toad strangler]

I did a little research and found a pretty eye popping number in regards to Florida October hurricane (Cat 1 MINIMUM) landfalls STRICTLY of Caribbean origin. The criteria I used were landfalls from the Tampa area S through the Keys. I did this to placate the S FL guys who seem to think that is the only part of the peninsula I found that between 1900 and 1964 there were 14 landfalls. Pretty much once every 4 1/2 years. But, from 1965 through present there are just 4 landfalls. That's one in every 13 1/2 years. WOW ... big difference there.

Here are the years....
GROUP 1 - 1906, 1909, 1910, 1921, 1924, 1944, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1959, 1964
GROUP 2 - 1987, 1998, 1999, 2005

Another STRIKING number from this list was the 11 year period between 1944 and 1953 that saw 7 landfalls in 11 years!!!! That sure was the driving force that has that 1900-1964 number at such a low return rate. The longest return period in the 1900-1964 group was 20 years from 1924 - 1944. The longest return rate in the post 1965 group is 22 years 1965-1987. It has been 14 years since Wilma, the last true Caribbean origin landfall S of Tampa. So I'd say we are on the clock here in year 15 of this latest return stretch.

[gatorcane]

I did a little research and found a pretty eye popping number in regards to Florida October hurricane (Cat 1 MINIMUM) landfalls STRICTLY of Caribbean origin. The criteria I used were landfalls from the Tampa area S through the Keys. I did this to placate the S FL guys who seem to think that is the only part of the peninsula I found that between 1900 and 1964 there were 14 landfalls. Pretty much once every 4 1/2 years. But, from 1965 through present there are just 4 landfalls. That's one in every 13 1/2 years. WOW ... big difference there.

Here are the years....
GROUP 1 - 1906, 1909, 1910, 1921, 1924, 1944, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1959, 1964
GROUP 2 - 1987, 1998, 1999, 2005

Another STRIKING number from this list was the 11 year period between 1944 and 1953 that saw 7 landfalls in 11 years!!!! That sure was the driving force that has that 1900-1964 number at such a low return rate. The longest return period in the 1900-1964 group was 20 years from 1924 - 1944. The longest return rate in the post 1965 group is 22 years 1965-1987. It has been 14 years since Wilma, the last true Caribbean origin landfall S of Tampa. So I'd say we are on the clock here in year 15 of this latest return stretch.

Thanks Toad, great analysis. I also think we are overdo and those numbers back that up. Tampa area is long overdo at least from a major hurricane perspective. Think it was 1921 that Tampa was hit last, a whopping 99 years. If any year could threaten the peninsula from one of those legendary hurricanes from the Caribbean in October, seems this year would make a good candidate.

[gatorcane]

BIG differences in the weather right now between South and North Florida as the wind shift / front moves slowly south tonight as well as the cloud deck. Checked Tampa and Orlando and the winds have shifted to the north and NE there. Meanwhile light and variable over a South Florida and mostly clear.

St Augustine has NE winds gusts to 35mph, Mayport NAS gusts to 37mph, Orlando Exec gusts to 21mph

[Stangfriik]

Very strange weather here in Daytona since yesterday afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph with steady rain. Very tropical feeling.

[chaser1]

Yep, pretty varied conditions over the state right now. Here in the (northeast) Orlando area, we're getting moderate rain all day - very unusual. That meso feature just west of Okeechobee just further assists the low level convergence along the the increasing offshore gradient behind the weak cool front draped across the area.