Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#121 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:15 pm

Potential tornado north of Statesboro GA. South East GA
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#122 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:48 pm

Downgraded to marginal. It's a mess down there. I will be surprised if anything forms from those
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#123 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:02 am

Now that the end to this brutal cold weather here in the Southern Plains is in sight (finally!), it's time to start thinking more about the upcoming severe weather season. I have seen a lot of people comparing this year to years like 2011 and 1974, and saying that this year is going to be huge for tornadoes (which I get it, I mean, both of those years show up in the top analogues) but I'm not sold on a huge year just yet (I know I'm probably in the minority here). I posted the following on another forum and thought I would post it here as well:

I've never been on the 2011 hype train so far and I have no plans to ever get on it. Same with the 1974 train... Sure, there are some big years in the analogues. But I really don't think this season is going to be as active as many people have been saying it will be. I think Dixie alley could have a big year, but I think 2021 is going to be another disappointment for storm trackers/chasers for the Plains. I don't think it's going to be another 2018/2020 year where there pretty much is nothing the whole year, but I also don't think its going to be continuous outbreaks like 1974, 2008, 2011, etc. That being said however, I do think there will be at least one big Plains setup this year, but overall I think this year will be another below average year for the Plains. I could see a 2012-like year, with one big outbreak day (4/14/12), with a few smaller set ups, and not much else.

Also, to touch on the drought in the SW... I've seen a few comparisons that mention that 2011 also had a severe drought in the SW (which it did). However, it was nowhere near what we are seeing now.

Here is the drought monitor from my birthday in 2011...

Image

And here is the current drought monitor:

Image

Not even close... More drought=bigger cap=less storms.

This is mainly based on a gut feeling so there is a good chance I'll be totally wrong lol

I'll come back to this post at the end of spring and see how wrong I was
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#124 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:39 am

Yeah the plains are hostile right now to twisters but the dixie/tennessee alley... :craz:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#125 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:17 pm

Storm Season 2021 Forecast from Direct Weather


Image


Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#126 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:24 pm


Sorry but I don't pay any attention to that guy whatsoever... He just hypes up everything way too much. I wouldn't pay attention to anything he says because it's most likely way over the top. I'm not trying to sound rude, but it's hard to listen to that kind of stuff
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#127 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:37 am

Marginal Risk in NE North Carolina & SE Virginia today for 60 mph wind gusts
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#128 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:56 am

March 6 is looking pretty strong with the potential Vorticity there quite high. Still a ways out however.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#129 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:56 pm

Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)

Image

CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .
Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#130 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:21 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh204-312.gif

CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021022212.sbcape.us_sc.gif

No need to focus on cape at this point. Timing and setup on 500mb heights and winds are best for the next week or so.

If you want to preliminarily dig a bit deeper, look for the “ski jump” on 500 mb winds, as Reed Timmer calls it. This refers to the jet streak that wraps around the trough from west, down south, and then out east. Shear profiles would be maximized right at the end of the “jump”, or left-exit region.

Good video if you have the time to spare:
https://tvnweather.com/podcasts/24
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#131 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:25 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh204-312.gif

CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021022212.sbcape.us_sc.gif

No need to focus on cape at this point. Timing and setup on 500mb heights and winds are best for the next week or so.

If you want to preliminarily dig a bit deeper, look for the “ski jump” on 500 mb winds, as Reed Timmer calls it. This refers to the jet streak that wraps around the trough from west, down south, and then out east. Shear profiles would be maximized right at the end of the “jump”, or left-exit region.

Good video if you have the time to spare:
https://tvnweather.com/podcasts/24


500 MB Bulk Shear

Image

Z500 Vort, that bowling ball is coming ever so slowly . . . (Storm #2)

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#132 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:28 pm

18z GFS is really showing an active pattern across the Southern Half of the CONUS . . .

(Also note the SE Ridge building . . . )

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#133 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:39 am

I kinda feel like if that pattern the last few GFS runs have been showing verifies, there's not going to be a whole lot of widespread severe weather as it seems like those systems are coming through awfully close to each other, which should limit moisture return. However, it could lead to some small-scale events, which can still be potent, as we've already seen a couple of times this year.

Anyway, 2/28 is a day to watch for that first system coming through. SPC has been mentioning that period for the past couple of days so it will be interesting reading their thoughts on it over the next few days. Still nearly a week out, so pretty much anything is possible at this point.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#134 Postby 869MB » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:53 pm

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#135 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:00 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I kinda feel like if that pattern the last few GFS runs have been showing verifies, there's not going to be a whole lot of widespread severe weather as it seems like those systems are coming through awfully close to each other, which should limit moisture return. However, it could lead to some small-scale events, which can still be potent, as we've already seen a couple of times this year.

Anyway, 2/28 is a day to watch for that first system coming through. SPC has been mentioning that period for the past couple of days so it will be interesting reading their thoughts on it over the next few days. Still nearly a week out, so pretty much anything is possible at this point.

Good point, the overly progressive pattern could put a damper on things. The GFS has really fallen out of consistency the last couple runs though, so I’m not really sure what to expect at this point.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#136 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:01 am

Marginal risk is up for Friday. Hail is the main threat.
Image

Also a side note, the SPC has introduced a new probabilistic extended fire outlook today, should be interesting for fire season down the road.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#137 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:15 pm

Updated to now include SE Oklahoma, bigger than it was shown this morning . . .

Quarter Sized (Maybe a Half Dollar Size) hail is expected.

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#138 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:46 pm

Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#139 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:07 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!


Models:

Radar:
https://www.news9.com/national-radar
(You can put in your own location & it will keep it for you.)


Satellite:
https://www.windy.com/
(To find the Satellite on Windy: Radar & Satellite :rarrow: Satellite)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://zoom.earth/ (NOTE: Can be up to 30 minutes behind, but very useful for close-up imagery)


(And either way, Welcome Back! :D )
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Erin 2008 & Bill 2015

February 2021 Storm of the Century
2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#140 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!


Models:

Radar:
https://www.news9.com/national-radar
(You can put in your own location & it will keep it for you.)


Satellite:
https://www.windy.com/
(To find the Satellite on Windy: Radar & Satellite :rarrow: Satellite)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://zoom.earth/ (NOTE: Can be up to 30 minutes behind, but very useful for close-up imagery)


(And either way, Welcome Back! :D )


I really like that Windy website!

Man, thank you so much. I am SO excited. I haven't went all out like this in a long time. I'm working on putting together my chase vehicle... you would like it! More to follow................. :)
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