Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#821 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:24 pm

18z GFS +51 hours sounding near Asher, OK

The SCP is trending north . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#822 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:37 pm

Well the 10% tor risk definitely busted today. One of the few events so far this year that hasn't verified. Time to look ahead to Friday's event.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#823 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:41 am

Enhanced now for Northern Texas, HATCHED for very large Hail over DFW

Now I'm under a Slight Risk . . .

Image

The Triple Point seems to be now at the Red River
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#824 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:44 am

This I think will go moderate.

Gulf should inject the trough soon into the deep south.
What I mean is fill it with moisture to clarify.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#825 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:46 am

GFS now has the Triple Point between OKC & Ardmore along I-35
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#826 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:54 am

UNCONTAMINATED 12z NAM soundings over Central Oklahoma

+30 Hours over Tecumseh, OK
Image

+33 Hours near Shawnee, OK
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Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#827 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:53 pm

New Day 2 outlook is out and the enhanced risk is maintained. However, the 10% tor risk has been removed, but the 30 hatched hail risk is much bigger than on the previous outlook. I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade to moderate for wind or hail sometime tomorrow. Looks like the cap will keep the tornado threat in check for the most part. One major factor that makes this event even more dangerous is that it's going to be a nocturnal event for the most part, so most people will be sleeping throughout the main event. Hopefully they will have a way to get alerts/warnings.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#828 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:20 am

Moderate risk for wind added. The 10% tor risk is also back. Also my area went from a general t-storm area to just outside of the enhanced risk in a single update...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#829 Postby Brent » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:40 am

Weather Dude wrote:Moderate risk for wind added. The 10% tor risk is also back. Also my area went from a general t-storm area to just outside of the enhanced risk in a single update...
https://i.imgur.com/JubURqA.png


kind of surprised to see the enhanced so close :double:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#830 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:14 am

Moderate risk now includes up to Fort Smith, AR

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Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#831 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:53 am

We could have a derecho on our hands.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#832 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:03 am

Mesoscale Discussion #339

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Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

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Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#833 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:37 am

Tennis ball sized hail reported recently in Alabama
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Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

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Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#834 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:46 am

12z NAM sounding over Tecumseh, OK

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#835 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:32 am

Nam and HRRR remove the cap entirely over dfw with 4000+ cape right before the boundary moves through. What is keeping storms from blowing up in that environment?
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#836 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:37 am

11:30 AM Update

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#837 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:17 pm

Severe thunderstorm watch #76

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#838 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:16 pm

10% HATCHED tornado area now for Mississippi
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#839 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:23 pm

Storms are starting to blow up near the Triple Point in Oklahoma (And along a warm front in Northern Oklahoma)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#840 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:25 pm

Mesoscale Discussion #345

80% of a watch across most of Oklahoma

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .


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