Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1481 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:05 pm

20z special OUN sounding shows a pretty hefty cap in place. It's gonna take some work to break that. On the other hand, that could mean the storms could remain discrete since only some of them would break the cap. Also have a lot more cloud cover here now, although I'm not sure that will hurt it much since it's been sunny most of the day.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Stormgodess
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 am

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1482 Postby Stormgodess » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:07 pm

I just came across this Tweet. What is yalls opinions of what he is saying? Being from SE Louisiana, and especially since the August 2016 floods we had here. Ive had a bit of a negative view of some forecasts, feeling like sometimes they are too conservative and dont give us the worst case scenario. Personally I would rather be over prepared and safe. Than possibly have my loved ones put in a life threatening weather event?

Ok sorry, hope I didnt derail any discussion. Just came across the tweet and it struck a nerve.

Stay safe any of you out there in the path of these storms. Sending clear sky and sunshine vibes out your way. :sun:

 https://twitter.com/StormChaseTV/status/1447286691786543104


0 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1483 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:41 pm

Cell near Roosevelt looks like it could be a major problem. Will likely be tor warned soon. Currently severe warned for tennis ball hail
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1484 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:13 pm

Confirmed tornado seen on News 9 near Roosevelt, but the Reflectivity is INSANE!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1485 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:30 pm

If that thing holds together for another hour it'll be right on top of me
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1486 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:57 pm

Circulation about to go right over me. Getting pounded by hail now.

80+ mph winds went through OKC. In the inflow notch here but the rotation isn't very strong thankfully
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1487 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:24 pm

Thankfully this has been mostly a squall line/linear event, besides that one long lived supercell that is now part of the line. The 15 hatched has nowhere near verified so far however with the LLJ increasing, that could always change as it moves east.
The 30 hatched hail and 45 hatched wind have definitely verified
3 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 35449
Age: 33
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1488 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:23 pm

Nothing overly impressive here. Seem to be between storms with a stronger cell north and a tornado warning to the southeast. The linear aspect really helped in general for sure
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1489 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 10, 2021 10:56 pm

Looks like Coweta, OK just took a direct hit from a strong QLCS tornado. I've got some relatives near there but it seemed to miss their area.
2 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1490 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:50 am

My rain gauge recorded 2.3 inches, but it's likely closer to 2.5 & 2.75 inches because most of the heaviest rain was windblown
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1491 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:00 pm

My thoughts on yesterday's event:
The supercellular strong tornado threat never fully materialized, although that was one heck of a supercell that tracked from Altus to Norman. It did manage to produce several tornadoes, although it appears none of them were very strong. Besides that storm, we didn't really see any other discrete cells initially.

The straight line wind threat most definitely verified, as did the the hail threat, especially in Norman, where areas of 3 inch hail were reported. The overnight QLCS tornado event was well-forecasted and certainly verified, with a couple of the spin ups even producing debris balls.

This was a very impressive event that you don't see in October very often, and I would say overall, the moderate risk certainly verified.

And on top of all that, we have another potentially significant severe weather event tomorrow.
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1492 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:57 am

Today is getting very serious. It's even more dangerous since it will be a nocturnal event. SPC mentions an upgrade is possible.

"However, 16Z surface observations suggest
warmer/moister surface conditions are running ahead of schedule
across southwest KS through the TX Panhandle. An upgrade to a
tornado-driven Moderate Risk may be needed in later outlooks should
this trend continue given the spread in guidance with regard to
near-surface thermodynamics and longevity of discrete supercell
structures."
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1493 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:01 pm

Moderate risk is up. The parameters are extremely rare for this area in October
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1494 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:09 pm

Western Oklahoma Supercell near Willow needs to be watched.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1495 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:17 am

Tornado Warning for Downtown OKC for a QLCS Mesocyclone that I managed to spot first develop near Mustang


EDIT: TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN DOWNTOWN OKC!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1496 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:01 am

There is a random Marginal risk today over most of Oklahoma
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1497 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:44 am

0z GFS says another severe weather event may be on the way for the Plains. Pretty far out for now, but considering the GFS sniffed out the 10/10 and 10/12 events pretty far out (especially 10/12), we'll have to see if it may be on to something here. Euro also has some sort of dryline moving through around the same period, and as usual it's slower than the GFS. It's a week out, but we might have to watch for an event in the 10/26-10/27 range. With continued warm temps and rising temps by early next week, this could definitely become a possibility.
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 35449
Age: 33
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1498 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:25 pm

Tulsa AFD this morning raised my interest

The numerical models begin to diverge significantly by Sunday,
with the GFS staying the course on unseasonable warmth lasting
into early next week, while the ECMWF develops a strong upper
level storm system over Kansas, allowing a cold front to move
across the area with a severe weather threat late Sunday and
Sunday evening. The UKMET splits the difference with a lean
towards the ECMWF, with a cold front but a much weaker upper level
system. For now, will add low pops for Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Another storm system looks to affect the area by Tuesday night and
Wednesday of next week, but the details are sketchy and will need
to be ironed out with time.

Stayed close to the National Blend of Models forecast until
Sunday. Significant changes to the forecast for Sunday and beyond
may occur over the coming days, so stay tuned!
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3712
Age: 18
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK (Name is Isaac)

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1499 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:48 am

Broad Slight Risk for Sunday, it appears that Dry Line is along I-35

Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3006
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1500 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:15 am

The next SPC disco for Sunday should be interesting. I'm not expecting a Day 3 enhanced at this point, although the way this month has gone so far anything is possible. I do think this will eventually be enhanced+ at some point though. I believe OK has set a state record for number of tornadoes in October (around 27-28 I believe), which is more than double the previous record, and more than double what we had in May this year, and that's not including whatever we get from Sun. and Tuesday.

Also the SPC mentioned they may highlight an area for next week in the next few outlooks so that could get interesting as well.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Google Adsense [Bot] and 3 guests