Texas Spring 2024

[txtwister78]

Several tornado warnings out for western Missouri including eastern areas of Kansas City metro and one confirmed NE of Joplin.

[txtwister78]

So far 60-69 gust reports coming out of Moore/OKC Metro. Stom continues to bow out moving east so no question isolated wind threat within that region as mentioned earlier, but the other storms have weakened south. Man, that storm is hauling east.

[snownado]

It's a good thing there was was virtually no trigger mechanism to force convection in North Texas (the best lift/ascent/dynamics was well NW into OK and KS). That 00z FWD sounding was one of the nastiest I've ever seen, with negligible capping at best.

[rwfromkansas]

It's a good thing there was was virtually no trigger mechanism to force convection in North Texas (the best lift/ascent/dynamics was well NW into OK and KS). That 00z FWD sounding was one of the nastiest I've ever seen, with negligible capping at best.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2024_05/Screenshot_20240506_201211.jpg.4eb61d31768f6b29555072fea4532c27.jpg

Just, wow. Yes, sometimes I bemoan lack of severe storms, but not tornadoes. That was a scary sounding.

[Anti-freeze]

 https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX/status/1787845500021997608




Inside the refuge stairwell

[snownado]

As of 11am, it's already 85*F at DFW. This is before the dewpoints start mixing down (compressional heating) and with mostly clear skies.

Will it make a run for 90*F after all today? Will find out soon...

[rwfromkansas]

It's 89 IMBY, so pretty much guaranteed to hit 90, probably 92-93.

[gpsnowman]

It's 89 IMBY, so pretty much guaranteed to hit 90, probably 92-93.

At least it isn't humid today. Feels ok out there. Tomorrow is a different story though. The weekend temps look fantastic.

[cstrunk]

It's 89 IMBY, so pretty much guaranteed to hit 90, probably 92-93.

At least it isn't humid today. Feels ok out there. Tomorrow is a different story though. The weekend temps look fantastic.

It's 87F/75F in Longview with 67% humidity at 1 pm. Definitely humid over here!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Dang, and here I thought 80 currently is way too hot feeling. I’m ready for overcast skies again and rain.

[snownado]

Only 89*F at DFW as of the 2pm observation. Dewpoint creeped back up ever so slightly though.

[Edwards Limestone]

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071905Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
being added to the 20Z convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas
southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
into the upper 80s to near 90 F.

Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
thicker but eroding cloud deck.

Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
well, with left movers also producing hail.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0678.html

[ElectricStorm]

 https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1787955246666576340

[snownado]

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 91*F at 1:32pm today, overachieving by several degrees.

[txtwister78]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0678.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071905Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
being added to the 20Z convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas
southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
into the upper 80s to near 90 F.

Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
thicker but eroding cloud deck.

Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
well, with left movers also producing hail.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0678.html

Can definitely see some cumulus bubbling up just NW of San Antonio across the southern HC. Might get one to fire up there but odds still low overall. May have to wait until Thursday for some slightly better odds. Don't even want to go beyond that time period for hope because that may jinx us...lol

[txtwister78]

Unfortunately, we have a mini tornado outbreak occurring today across Michigan and Indiana. Different storm modes across that region than what we saw yesterday for the most part.

[Anti-freeze]

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 91*F at 1:32pm today, overachieving by several degrees.

"Don't care, had low dew point."

Interesting at the range of dewpoints across greater DFW. Rockwell currently at 67, Love Field 62, DFW Airport 56, Alliance Airport 44.

The living is great on the drier side of the Metroplex.

[snownado]

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 91*F at 1:32pm today, overachieving by several degrees.

"Don't care, had low dew point."

Interesting at the range of dewpoints across greater DFW. Rockwell currently at 67, Love Field 62, DFW Airport 56, Alliance Airport 44.

The living is great on the drier side of the Metroplex.

I was just happy to finally have a sunny day again. The 90*F+ high was merely icing on the cake.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z hrrr firing of supercells in Dallas county and points northeast tomorrow between 5 and 6pm. With weak low level shear, strong bulk shear, and almost 7000j/kg of cape, these would drop some giant hail on whoever is under them. Wouldn’t be surprised if the eastern metro gets bumped up to enhanced but I could see them keeping it a slight due to low confidence in coverage until the best dynamics have moved east.

Edit: with the 0z nam following suit on westward expansion, I’d think there’s a decent chance of the enhanced risk being pulled west to i35 tomorrow

[Cpv17]

0z hrrr firing of supercells in Dallas county and points northeast tomorrow between 5 and 6pm. With weak low level shear, strong bulk shear, and almost 7000j/kg of cape, these would drop some giant hail on whoever is under them. Wouldn’t be surprised if the eastern metro gets bumped up to enhanced but I could see them keeping it a slight due to low confidence in coverage until the best dynamics have moved east.

Edit: with the 0z nam following suit on westward expansion, I’d think there’s a decent chance of the enhanced risk being pulled west to i35 tomorrow

Moderate could be added for points east. Tomorrow is looking nasty.