Texas Fall 2019

[weatherdude1108]

these models are depressing when will things change around here??? does anyone know what the record for 90+ days in September is? What is rain like?

the Euro approaches 100 again this weekend!

At least we're not alone, Atlanta almost hit 100 today and its almost unheard of over there this late

Brent I was thinking the same thing. Hasn't it been 90+ all of September? And 90's for the next 10 days at least. I'm wondering if we have ever seen a September with 90's everyday. Yuck.

Well, we've gotten to 100 almost every day in September so far, despite rain chances the last couple days. We have a shot at rain today and tomorrow, maybe.

CAMP MABRY
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data

000
CXUS54 KEWX 101242
CF6ATT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: AUSTIN CAMP MABRY
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 30 17 N
LONGITUDE: 97 42 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: CPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY K WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 99 76 88 4 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 2.4 14 120 M M 1 3 21 130
2 102 76 89 5 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 10 100 M M 1 21 70
3 101 74 88 4 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 29 90 M M 1 30 90
4 102 75 89 6 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 3.4 12 120 M M 1 17 100
5 102 74 88 5 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 3.5 13 120 M M 0 19 150
6 103 77 90 7 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 2.7 10 150 M M 0 16 160
7 103 77 90 8 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 3.4 14 140 M M 0 23 130
8 102 77 90 8 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 140 M M 2 8 25 140
9 101 78 90 8 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 20 120 M M 3 30 120
================================================================================
SM 915 684 0 217 0.00 0.0 35.3 M 9
================================================================================
AV101.7 76.0 3.9 FASTST M M 1 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 29 90 # 30 90
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

STATION: AUSTIN CAMP MABRY
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 30 17 N
LONGITUDE: 97 42 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 88.8 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.00 1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: 5.8 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.02 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST: 103 ON 7, 6 GRTST 24HR 0.00 ON 9- 9 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST: 74 ON 5, 3 3 = THUNDER
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL
GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 0
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 9 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 0
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 0 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 8
DPTR FM NORMAL 0 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 1
TOTAL FM JUL 1 0 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 0
DPTR FM NORMAL 0

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 217
DPTR FM NORMAL 56 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 2852 HIGHEST SLP M ON M
DPTR FM NORMAL 297 LOWEST SLP 29.83 ON M

[REMARKS]


AUSTIN BERGSTROM
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at the NCDC - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data

000
CXUS54 KEWX 090910
CF6AUS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: AUSTIN BERGSTROM
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 30 13 N
LONGITUDE: 97 40 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: CPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY K WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 97 72 85 3 0 20 T 0.0 0 3.1 25 40 M M 4 13 35 30
2 100 70 85 4 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 18 80 M M 3 26 80
3 100 68 84 3 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 5.4 16 80 M M 3 29 30
4 100 72 86 5 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 21 70 M M 4 28 70
5 101 68 85 4 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 15 130 M M 2 1 27 110
6 101 72 87 7 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 13 150 M M 2 17 130
7 100 72 86 6 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 7.1 17 140 M M 1 1 23 160
8 100 73 87 7 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 10.0 23 150 M M 3 18 29 140
================================================================================
SM 799 567 0 165 T 0.0 46.6 M 22
================================================================================
AV 99.9 70.9 5.8 FASTST M M 3 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 25 40 # 35 30
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

STATION: AUSTIN BERGSTROM
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 30 13 N
LONGITUDE: 97 40 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 85.4 TOTAL FOR MONTH: T 1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: 4.6 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.70 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST: 101 ON 6, 5 GRTST 24HR T ON 1- 1 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST: 68 ON 5, 3 3 = THUNDER
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL
GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 0
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 8 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 0
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 0 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 5
DPTR FM NORMAL 0 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 3
TOTAL FM JUL 1 0 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 0
DPTR FM NORMAL 0

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 165
DPTR FM NORMAL 39 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 2618 HIGHEST SLP M ON M
DPTR FM NORMAL 352 LOWEST SLP 29.83 ON 3

[REMARKS]

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ewx

[CaptinCrunch]

Here is September 2012 and 2013 (NTX), both ENSO neutral, and look how they compare to 2019 so far, it's damn close. It's still early I know, and allot could change moving deeper into the month, but Fall 2012 was hotter/drier than normal and it persisted right on into winter. As we know soil moisture plays a big roll headed into Fall and Winter, as it keeps ground temps in control and absorbs heat, solar radiation, and we are in a current drought with little measurable widespread rainfall in the forecast for much of Texas. Measurable rainfall that was close to normal was the biggest difference between Fall 2012 (drought), and 2013 (near normal), which are the characteristics we see during El Nino or La Nina and plays into the type of Winter we may see. Even though the ONI reflects Neutral condictions, this is more La Nina like in nature at the current time.

September 2012
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/displayprod?dfwsep12

September 2013
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/displayprod?dfwsep13

September 2019
https://www.weather.gov/fwd/displayprod?dfwsep19

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

One of these days we're going to open the AFD and it's going to simply say "Yawn".

[SoupBone]

I am worried it may go into La Niña category. Hope not. This is not starting off good for fall.

This could be the beginning of another bad drought.

Why is Texas such a damn feast or famine state? We're either having Harvey or tax Day flooding rains or nothing for months.

[dhweather]

For those keeping score....

RIDGE OF DEATH 49 - Models 0

[dhweather]

its' onlt 258 hours out - not sure what to believe more here - it rains in Texas or the CAT 5 IN THE ATLANTIC.

[weatherdude1108]

its' onlt 258 hours out - not sure what to believe more here - it rains in Texas or the CAT 5 IN THE ATLANTIC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

Eeny, meeny, miny, mo, what happens next, nobody knows...or...anybody's guess.

[CaptinCrunch]

My money is on cat 5 into Alabama before measurable rainfall in central TX. where's that Trump Hurricane map at

[Haris]

My money is on cat 5 into Alabama before measurable rainfall in central TX. where's that Trump Hurricane map at

Same

[Tejas89]

I don't recall such a boring September and it could be a record breaker. If not the heat, then the dryness.

It seems like activity in the Atlantic always means extended summer for us.

[Brent]

I don't recall such a boring September and it could be a record breaker. If not the heat, then the dryness.

It seems like activity in the Atlantic always means extended summer for us.

I suppose its only fitting the hottest September for DFW was 2005... The busiest Atlantic season ever but i mean this year other than Dorian has been rather unimpressive(granted Dorian was such a massive deal by itself)

It looks like there was around 25 days above 90 then with several 100s and no real end til the end of the month

[weatherdude1108]

Eyeballing the showers/storms coming in from the south. Hoping I get in on some of this action!

[CaptinCrunch]

Eyeballing the showers/storms coming in from the south. Hoping I get in on some of this action!

I officially got sprinkles, and not the kind you get on donuts. Just enough to scare the grass and bugs...

[weatherdude1108]

Eyeballing the showers/storms coming in from the south. Hoping I get in on some of this action!

I officially got sprinkles, and not the kind you get on donuts. Just enough to scare the grass and bugs...

Yeah, poured cats and dogs on me driving home from work. Car thermometer went from 99 to 76. Got home, gauge barely shows 0.10" of an inch.

[Cpv17]

Eyeballing the showers/storms coming in from the south. Hoping I get in on some of this action!

I officially got sprinkles, and not the kind you get on donuts. Just enough to scare the grass and bugs...

Yeah, poured cats and dogs on me driving home from work. Car thermometer went from 99 to 76. Got home, gauge barely shows 0.10" of an inch.

Lol this happens to me all the time!

[BrokenGlass]

That’s a very specific cloud!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Cpv17]

We had two showers today. Picked up .45” during the first one and 1.95” during the second. 2.4” total today! Biggest rain here in 3 months.

[weatherdude1108]

We had two showers today. Picked up .45” during the first one and 1.95” during the second. 2.4” total today! Biggest rain here in 3 months.

Wow! Very cool.

[dhweather]

I don't recall such a boring September and it could be a record breaker. If not the heat, then the dryness.

It seems like activity in the Atlantic always means extended summer for us.

I suppose its only fitting the hottest September for DFW was 2005... The busiest Atlantic season ever but i mean this year other than Dorian has been rather unimpressive(granted Dorian was such a massive deal by itself)

It looks like there was around 25 days above 90 then with several 100s and no real end til the end of the month

Well, honestly, there's probably a significant correlation here.

Roughly since 1995, two things started happening much more frequently:

1) More heat and droughts in Texas

2) Increased tropical cyclone activity in the tropical Atlantic

Looking back:

1930's - dust bowl , uptick in tropical activity
1950's - numerous drought years in Texas/Western US, uptick in tropical activity

In the modern satellite era:

1995-1996: Another drought strikes Texas, this one with more agricultural losses than any other one-year drought.
1995: Extreme uptick in tropical Atlantic activity, 21 depressions, 19 named, 11 hurricanes, 5 majors
1996: 13 depressions, 13 named, 9 hurricanes, 6 majors
1997: Drought over, 9 depressions, 8 named, 3 hurricanes, 1 major


1999-2002: Another drought arrives in Texas. In August of 1999, “excessive heat throughout August resulted in 16 fatalities in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. The airport reported 26 consecutive days of 100°F or greater temperatures,” the timeline says. The next year, extreme heat strikes again, with a 10-day average of 103.3 degrees Fahrenheit at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport.

99: 16 depressions, 12 named, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors
00: 19 depressions, 15 named, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors
01: 17 depressions, 15 named, 9 hurricanes, 4 majors
02: 14 depressions, 12 named, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors

2005- into 2006: Yet another Texas drought, this one with statewide losses of $4.1 billion.
2005: 31 depressions, 28 named, 15 hurricanes, 7 majors
2006: 10 depressions, 10 named, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors

2010-2012: Texas drought arrives. From October of last year to September of that year, rainfall averages just over eleven inches, making it the driest year in Texas history.
2010: 21 depressions, 19 named, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors
2011: 20 depressions, 19 named, 7 hurricanes, 4 majors
2012: 19 depressions, 19 named, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors
2013: 15 depressions, 14 named, 2 hurricanes, 0 majors

In Dr. William Gray's work, he cites periods of multidecadal oscillation where trpical cyclone activity increases in the Atlantic. Gray felt 1995 was the start of the next period.


One of these days I'll have time to put more together on the topic.

[Ntxw]

It's not just that the "storms" in itself is the causation/effect of hot and dry (for Texas) but the broader wave pattern as well as bigger forces at play.

When the Atlantic heats up in late summer/early Fall it is usually because of increase favor-ability for the Atlantic Ocean. This favor-ability is tied to atmospheric oscillations and ridge-trough configurations that are associated with La Nina or La Nina like tropical forcing. And we all know what a true Nina can do for droughts.

On the other hand some of the wettest Falls like 2009, 2015, 2018 are associated with big EPAC seasons, or El Nino like wave patterns.

All of this is just a result of where the background tropical upward forcing is. In late summer and early Fall the wavelengths are not yet short so when tropical forcing slows down in any one region, you can get prolonged dry periods and vice versa. So the Tropical systems are a symptom of an overall more broad, stuck, pattern.

Now when talking about decadal or multi-year wet/dry Texas patterns the PDO in the Pacific has a much larger role. The -PDO from about 2005-2013 yielded one of the driest periods in Texas history. Immediately those fortunes flipped from 2014-2018 with the PDO reversal with the massive El Nino.