Texas Summer 2023

[bubba hotep]

DFW avoids the SPC ENH curse today! The HRRR precipitation output looks like several isolated supercells will be roaming around North and Central TX this afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

The Cockroach Death Ridge is already in existence, it is currently in Mexico.

I also put in arrows on which model takes it, Green is GFS, Blue CMC, and Red is Euro, all from 0z.

The Darker arrows are the Ensembles, and the lighter ones are the Operational models.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SuJTm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SuJTm.png

00z Euro EPS backs off on the heat some for DFW, maybe that will be a trend!

[Iceresistance]

The Cockroach Death Ridge is already in existence, it is currently in Mexico.

I also put in arrows on which model takes it, Green is GFS, Blue CMC, and Red is Euro, all from 0z.

The Darker arrows are the Ensembles, and the lighter ones are the Operational models.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SuJTm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SuJTm.png

00z Euro EPS backs off on the heat some for DFW, maybe that will be a trend!

The GFS does not want the Cockroach Death Ridge to come to Texas, and it is more likely for that to trend cooler because this is an El Nino year.

[Iceresistance]

This is for the 6z runs, Green is GFS and red is Euro, darker is Ensembles and lighter is Operational runs. ICON is now included as Dark Yellow/Orange

(6z OP Euro only goes out to 90 hours)


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SuJ3P.png

[HockeyTx82]

Seems awfully cool here in Ponder this AM. Outflow boundary strikes again?

[rwfromkansas]

Much cooler this morning thanks to the storms last night. Thank you rain.

[rwfromkansas]

There is outflow coming down that’s around Bowie right now. Don’t see any obvious ones in DFW, but I am not an expert.

It is moving rapidly and likely will clear DFW by noon.

[cstrunk]

It'll be interesting to see how the storms along the Red River impact things later today.

[rwfromkansas]

The forecasts showed them going off straight east along the river, but that's not happening. They are moving more SE with the stabilizing cool air. So, there's that.

But, it appears the impact will be much less Weatherford west, so as long as it warms up enough and storms can fire west, there's still a chance. I am not sure, but it may not kill DFW storms except for Collin/Denton.

Will just have to see how things evolve.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yesterday storms across Lake Worth were pretty heavy rain wise, I also got some marbel size hail from it, not a ton but enough you noticed it in the yard. That Cell split and the northern half is what went up over Flower Mound with that large hail.

Still lots of moisture avaliable for anything that pops up late afternoon into the overnight. After that we"ll see if there will be a mulit day 100+ streak.

[cheezyWXguy]

The forecasts showed them going off straight east along the river, but that's not happening. They are moving more SE with the stabilizing cool air. So, there's that.

But, it appears the impact will be much less Weatherford west, so as long as it warms up enough and storms can fire west, there's still a chance. I am not sure, but it may not kill DFW storms except for Collin/Denton.

Will just have to see how things evolve.

Personally I’m not expecting this boundary to have much impact on the setup, as it doesn’t appear to be the impetus for storms today (unlike Sunday). Based on the HRRR’s timing, there would be a minimum of 6 hours between the boundary’s passage and the time storms initiate out west, which should be plenty sufficient for recovery if correct

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah good point. The forecast seems to indicate after 5 to be the key time, so later than other days. It’s beginning to warm a bit back up to the mid-70s.

Was nice to put some fertilizer out though earlier!

[Brent]

74 degrees at 2pm

At least it seems like some of the excessive heat this weekend has backed off

[Tireman4]

74 degrees at 2pm

At least it seems like some of the excessive heat this weekend has backed off

For you all, yes. For us, nope....HGX...

Thursday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Saturday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Sunday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102.

[bubba hotep]

Shift the 18z HRRR SW a bit and DFW is in the money!

[HockeyTx82]

Shift the 18z HRRR SW a bit and DFW is in the money!

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023061218/048/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Is that a snow map?;

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1668354988316446720

[South Texas Storms]

Hopefully our neighbors in north TX enjoy the cooler temps and rain the next few days because yall will join south and central TX in the furnace this weekend into next week.

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully our neighbors in north TX enjoy the cooler temps and rain the next few days because yall will join south and central TX in the furnace this weekend into next week.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully our neighbors in north TX enjoy the cooler temps and rain the next few days because yall will join south and central TX in the furnace this weekend into next week.

Yeah, we’re in the frying pan down here. Grass is already starting to wither up and grounds are hard as a rock over here already.