Texas Fall-2016

[horselattitudesfarm]

[quote="weatherdude1108"][i]000
FXUS64 KEWX 282040
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

'.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
......]Temperatures have
warmed into the 70s and lower 80s with dewpoints down into the
30s and 40s. These values are combining to create relative
humidity values in the 18-25 percent range across much of the
area. This in combination with the breezy winds are creating
elevated fire weather conditions, .........'

This sounds like the last 2 months here in NC.

[horselattitudesfarm]

An interesting thing I found while researching weather from the NC State Climate office; It looks like the stratospheric westerlies were starting to weaken and then started strengthening again in the spring. This might mean the polar vortex stays further north as the polar jet stays strong, so maybe not as much cold air down south as the polar vortex stays contained. As they stated below:

"This spring, though, a funny thing happened. In fact, it was something never seen since stratospheric monitoring began in the early 1950s.

The QBO was positive but decreasing, indicative of weakening westerly winds aloft. But that weakening suddenly stopped and reversed, and as the chart below shows, the stratospheric winds have become strong westerlies again."



Anyway, just another variable to throw out there

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont know what the QBO does entirely yet, but im very interested!

[gpsnowman]

At end of Rick Mitchells(NBC5) 10 day outlook he has that Thursday at hi44 lo38 with rain. He also mentioned he thinks even colder shots are possible as we get into December. I like to see the local TV mets get on board early with winter pattern changes. On a side note Rick is someone I have enjoyed watching since he came to Dallas from OKC. I believe he will be the head man once David Finfrock retires.
One more day around 70 then all down hill from there. Bring it.

[starsfan65]

At end of Rick Mitchells(NBC5) 10 day outlook he has that Thursday at hi44 lo38 with rain. He also mentioned he thinks even colder shots are possible as we get into December. I like to see the local TV mets get on board early with winter pattern changes. On a side note Rick is someone I have enjoyed watching since he came to Dallas from OKC. I believe he will be the head man once David Finfrock retires.
One more day around 70 then all down hill from there. Bring it.

Channel 8 said it is going to be 65 degrees on Next Thursday.

[starsfan65]

At end of Rick Mitchells(NBC5) 10 day outlook he has that Thursday at hi44 lo38 with rain. He also mentioned he thinks even colder shots are possible as we get into December. I like to see the local TV mets get on board early with winter pattern changes. On a side note Rick is someone I have enjoyed watching since he came to Dallas from OKC. I believe he will be the head man once David Finfrock retires.
One more day around 70 then all down hill from there. Bring it.

Channel 8 said it is going to be 65 degrees on Next Thursday.

He was the chief weatherman in Oklahoma City.

[gpsnowman]

It was for Thursday December 8. Wheather or not the temps are accurate he believes a pattern change is on the way for early December.

[Ntxw]

I dont know what the QBO does entirely yet, but im very interested!

The QBO has been out of whack this year. It didn't do what it was supposed to and nothing in the records supported what it did. It's a very difficult index to comprehend in general. One phase of the QBO could do one thing with El Nino and do a whole other thing with a Nina or it could do absolutely nothing at all. I believe it has the most ties the AO/NAO but that's a hard correlation to prove.

that being said from that chart it looks like the westerly QBO now and ENSO state is closest to winter of 2013 which was +QBO and La Nada

Monthly QBO data here, perhaps someone will see some sort of correlation?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[starsfan65]

It is going to be a cold and rainy weekend.

[Ntxw]

Anomalies from the GEFS (ENS) 18z. Classic outbreak movement.

[texas1836]

Anomalies from the GEFS (ENS) 18z. Classic outbreak movement.

http://i66.tinypic.com/11c8wpg.gif

That is cool. Would you happen to have the link to share?

[gboudx]

That is cool. Would you happen to have the link to share?

Try this.

[texas1836]

That is cool. Would you happen to have the link to share?

Try this.

Thank yooooou!!!

[HockeyTx82]

Does anyone have the ability to post those raw model output graphs we used a while back? Wxman57 posted them quite a bit. Always found them fun to look at it for us visual type who can't read models.

[TheProfessor]

Does anyone have the ability to post those raw model output graphs we used a while back? Wxman57 posted them quite a bit. Always found them fun to look at it for us visual type who can't read models.

Do you mean the Meteograms? I have access to them from Acuweather but I don't believe I'm allowed to post them. I believe Wxman57 made his from scratch.

[gboudx]

If you're referring to the meteograms wxman57 would post, he created a tutorial and a sticky on the Winter board on how to create them yourself. viewtopic.php?f=22&t=109958

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's discussion around noon today:

A wet and cool weather pattern is forecast to develop this coming weekend into next Monday as the trough of low pressure over the southwestern US slowly moves to the east. The trough is forecast to move across Texas this weekend, exiting to the northeast sometime on Monday. The approaching trough is expected to cause the development of widespread overrunning rain showers Saturday that will likely continue Sunday into Monday. The rain should taper off next Monday. The latest rainfall forecasts call for 3-day totals of around 1-1.5 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Totals of 2-3 inches are forecast across the coastal plains region.

Temperatures are forecast to stay quite chilly due to the widespread clouds and rain. High temperatures Saturday through Monday are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Looking ahead to next week, the large trough of low pressure is forecast to exit northeast on Monday. A dry weather pattern is forecast for most of the week. However, temperatures look to stay somewhat cool with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. There are some strong hints that even colder air will spread south into the region sometime late next week.

Tropical Weather Update
Hurricane Otto moved across Costa Rica and Nicaragua last Thursday and Friday before exiting into the eastern tropical Pacific. Otto lost its tropical characteristics and diminished upon reaching the eastern Pacific. Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days. The Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons will officially end this Wednesday, November 30th.

Bob


[url]http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-weather/weather-summary/Pages/bob-rose-on-the-weather.aspx
[/url]

[Brent]

Does anyone have the ability to post those raw model output graphs we used a while back? Wxman57 posted them quite a bit. Always found them fun to look at it for us visual type who can't read models.

Do you mean the Meteograms? I have access to them from Acuweather but I don't believe I'm allowed to post them. I believe Wxman57 made his from scratch.

The GFS is free here and you don't have to input anything (which I think is what he used to post just more fancy) http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW just change the airport code to whatever city you're looking for.

Beyond the GFS it's probably $$$

[HockeyTx82]

Does anyone have the ability to post those raw model output graphs we used a while back? Wxman57 posted them quite a bit. Always found them fun to look at it for us visual type who can't read models.

Do you mean the Meteograms? I have access to them from Acuweather but I don't believe I'm allowed to post them. I believe Wxman57 made his from scratch.

The GFS is free here and you don't have to input anything (which I think is what he used to post just more fancy) http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW just change the airport code to whatever city you're looking for.

Beyond the GFS it's probably $$$

Yup, what was looking for. Lost some bookmarks at one point. Thank you all.

[Brent]

Euro very aggressive with the front at day 9... temperatures well into the 60s on Wednesday the 7th, then temperatures in the 30s all day on Thursday the 8th....

GFS is much warmer but has been extremely cold in this timeframe on previous runs. It has a big rain event around the same time and then a less extreme front that weekend.