Tue Sep 20 12:49:16 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 201229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC TUE SEP 20 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110920 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110920 1200 110921 0000 110921 1200 110922 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 37.5W 12.4N 40.5W 12.9N 44.2W 13.1N 48.4W
BAMD 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.4W 12.8N 41.5W 13.6N 43.7W
BAMM 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.6W 12.7N 42.2W 13.2N 44.9W
LBAR 11.5N 37.5W 12.1N 39.0W 13.0N 41.0W 14.2N 43.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110922 1200 110923 1200 110924 1200 110925 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 52.9W 10.8N 60.9W 9.7N 67.0W 10.4N 70.6W
BAMD 14.4N 45.9W 16.4N 49.6W 18.5N 52.8W 19.6N 54.8W
BAMM 13.6N 47.6W 14.8N 52.2W 16.9N 56.6W 18.7N 60.5W
LBAR 15.3N 46.2W 17.9N 51.7W 21.4N 56.2W 23.7N 58.3W
SHIP 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS 45KTS
DSHP 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 200548
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0548 UTC TUE SEP 20 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110920 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110920 0600 110920 1800 110921 0600 110921 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 37.7W 11.9N 40.2W 12.6N 43.2W 13.0N 46.8W
BAMD 11.3N 37.7W 11.9N 39.4W 12.6N 41.4W 13.3N 43.6W
BAMM 11.3N 37.7W 11.8N 39.5W 12.3N 41.7W 12.9N 44.1W
LBAR 11.3N 37.7W 11.7N 39.1W 12.7N 41.1W 13.8N 43.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110922 0600 110923 0600 110924 0600 110925 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 50.8W 11.9N 58.4W 11.1N 64.9W 11.7N 69.3W
BAMD 14.1N 45.7W 15.9N 49.3W 17.7N 52.1W 18.8N 53.9W
BAMM 13.4N 46.4W 14.6N 50.7W 16.1N 54.9W 17.5N 58.4W
LBAR 15.0N 46.3W 17.8N 51.9W 21.2N 56.7W 23.8N 59.7W
SHIP 41KTS 42KTS 44KTS 43KTS
DSHP 41KTS 42KTS 44KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 200027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC TUE SEP 20 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110920 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110920 0000 110920 1200 110921 0000 110921 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 37.2W 11.7N 39.2W 12.3N 41.8W 12.8N 45.4W
BAMD 11.3N 37.2W 11.9N 38.7W 12.7N 40.6W 13.5N 42.8W
BAMM 11.3N 37.2W 11.7N 38.8W 12.1N 40.8W 12.5N 43.5W
LBAR 11.3N 37.2W 11.9N 38.7W 12.8N 40.7W 13.9N 43.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110922 0000 110923 0000 110924 0000 110925 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 49.3W 12.6N 57.8W 11.8N 65.4W 12.0N 71.2W
BAMD 14.4N 45.1W 16.1N 49.0W 18.0N 51.5W 19.5N 52.1W
BAMM 13.0N 46.3W 13.5N 51.9W 14.6N 56.6W 16.6N 60.0W
LBAR 15.2N 45.8W 18.0N 51.4W 21.3N 56.2W 23.8N 59.6W
SHIP 45KTS 44KTS 44KTS 43KTS
DSHP 45KTS 44KTS 44KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 37.2W DIRM12 = 139DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Invest 98L Likely To Develop Into Tropical Storm Ophelia Within The Next 24 to 36 Hours & May Affect The Leeward & Windward Islands On Friday & Saturday
Written by Rob Lightbown ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, 2011
Invest 98L Located 1500 Miles To The East Of The Windward Islands:
Invest 98L, which is located about 1500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands, continues to become better organized and satellite estimate winds indicate that this system may already be a tropical storm. I suspect that the National Hurricane Center is going to wait to upgrade this low pressure system until we see visible satellite imagery this morning to confirm whether there is a low-level center; so, don’t be surprised to see Invest 98L upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm today.
Invest 98L is tracking to the west and will likely continue tracking westward and it is looking likely that this system will affect Leeward Islands and possibly the Windward Islands starting on Friday and continuing into Saturday. The global and track model guidance continues to insist that this disturbance will weaken and possibly dissipate as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean due to a wall of very high shear. So, my thinking is that this disturbance will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia either today or at the very latest early tomorrow and top out at around 50 to 60 mph on Thursday. From there, I think we may see this system weaken to about 40 mph as it tracks towards and through the Leeward Islands on Friday night and Saturday.
After that, the global model guidance point to a strong trough of low pressure to be located over the eastern United States late this weekend into early next week and this trough is expected not to budge. So, I think we will see whatever becomes of Invest 98L get picked up out of the far eastern or northeastern Caribbean and pulled north and northeastward across the open Atlantic very much like Maria was.
For those of you in the Leeward Islands and the the Windward Islands, please be aware that Invest 98L looks to take a little further north track than what was expected yesterday and tropical storm conditions are possible across the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands starting during the day Friday and continuing right into Saturday. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may also be affected by tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Finally, should this system be pulled northward that Bermuda may be affected by tropical storm conditions right around next Wednesday.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_98.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
Written by Rob Lightbown ON SEPTEMBER 20TH, 2011
Invest 98L Located 1500 Miles To The East Of The Windward Islands:
Invest 98L, which is located about 1500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands, continues to become better organized and satellite estimate winds indicate that this system may already be a tropical storm. I suspect that the National Hurricane Center is going to wait to upgrade this low pressure system until we see visible satellite imagery this morning to confirm whether there is a low-level center; so, don’t be surprised to see Invest 98L upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm today.
Invest 98L is tracking to the west and will likely continue tracking westward and it is looking likely that this system will affect Leeward Islands and possibly the Windward Islands starting on Friday and continuing into Saturday. The global and track model guidance continues to insist that this disturbance will weaken and possibly dissipate as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean due to a wall of very high shear. So, my thinking is that this disturbance will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia either today or at the very latest early tomorrow and top out at around 50 to 60 mph on Thursday. From there, I think we may see this system weaken to about 40 mph as it tracks towards and through the Leeward Islands on Friday night and Saturday.
After that, the global model guidance point to a strong trough of low pressure to be located over the eastern United States late this weekend into early next week and this trough is expected not to budge. So, I think we will see whatever becomes of Invest 98L get picked up out of the far eastern or northeastern Caribbean and pulled north and northeastward across the open Atlantic very much like Maria was.
For those of you in the Leeward Islands and the the Windward Islands, please be aware that Invest 98L looks to take a little further north track than what was expected yesterday and tropical storm conditions are possible across the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands starting during the day Friday and continuing right into Saturday. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may also be affected by tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Finally, should this system be pulled northward that Bermuda may be affected by tropical storm conditions right around next Wednesday.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_98.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
WATER VAPOR IMAGE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC(NICE IMAGE):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... s/wvg8.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... s/wvg8.GIF
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139517
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
SSD Dvorak.
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139517
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LIMITED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 20/22Z OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...BUT TAF SITES IN PR AND ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR IN TJBQ...AND
POSSIBLE IN TJMZ. LLVL WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15
KNOTS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 87 80 90 / 40 40 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LIMITED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 20/22Z OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...BUT TAF SITES IN PR AND ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR IN TJBQ...AND
POSSIBLE IN TJMZ. LLVL WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15
KNOTS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 87 80 90 / 40 40 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
Current Weather Conditions:
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States
(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W
Conditions at
2011.09.20 2156 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84.0 F (28.9 C)
Dew Point 73.0 F (22.8 C)
Relative Humidity 69%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TJSJ 202156Z 10007KT 10SM FEW037 SCT045 BKN080 29/23 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 T02890228
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
Maximum
Temperature
F (C) Minimum
Temperature
F (C)
89.1 (31.7) 78.1 (25.6) In the 6 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 01:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 1756 UTC
84.9 (29.4) 75.0 (23.9) In the 24 hours preceding Sep 19, 2011 - 11:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 0356 UTC
Precipitation Accumulation
Precipitation
Amount
0.03 inches In the 3 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 04:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 2056 UTC
0.19 inches In the 24 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.20 1156 UTC
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 6 PM (22) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) E 8
5 PM (21) Sep 20 82.9 (28.3) 75.0 (23.9) 29.91 (1012) E 8
4 PM (20) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ENE 8 light rain
3 PM (19) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) E 12 light rain
2 PM (18) Sep 20 87.1 (30.6) 71.1 (21.7) 29.92 (1013) ESE 8
1 PM (17) Sep 20 89.1 (31.7) 70.0 (21.1) 29.95 (1014) E 16
Noon (16) Sep 20 86.0 (30.0) 71.1 (21.7) 29.97 (1014) E 8
11 AM (15) Sep 20 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.98 (1015) E 9
10 AM (14) Sep 20 82.0 (27.8) 72.0 (22.2) 29.99 (1015) SSW 5
9 AM (13) Sep 20 80.1 (26.7) 73.0 (22.8) 29.97 (1014) SE 3
8 AM (12) Sep 20 78.1 (25.6) 72.0 (22.2) 29.95 (1014) ESE 3
7 AM (11) Sep 20 77.0 (25.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) Calm
6 AM (10) Sep 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) Calm
5 AM (9) Sep 20 75.9 (24.4) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) Calm
4 AM (8) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.9 (1012) Calm
3 AM (7) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.9 (1012) Calm
2 AM (6) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.92 (1013) SSE 6
1 AM (5) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) E 8
Midnight (4) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.95 (1014) ENE 7 light rain
11 PM (3) Sep 19 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.97 (1014) E 3 light rain
10 PM (2) Sep 19 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.97 (1014) SSW 3 light rain
9 PM (1) Sep 19 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.96 (1014) Variable 5 light rain
8 PM (0) Sep 19 79.0 (26.1) 72.0 (22.2) 29.93 (1013) SSE 5 thunder
Oldest 7 PM (23) Sep 19 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.92 (1013) ESE 8 thunder
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States
(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W
Conditions at
2011.09.20 2156 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84.0 F (28.9 C)
Dew Point 73.0 F (22.8 C)
Relative Humidity 69%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TJSJ 202156Z 10007KT 10SM FEW037 SCT045 BKN080 29/23 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 T02890228
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
Maximum
Temperature
F (C) Minimum
Temperature
F (C)
89.1 (31.7) 78.1 (25.6) In the 6 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 01:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 1756 UTC
84.9 (29.4) 75.0 (23.9) In the 24 hours preceding Sep 19, 2011 - 11:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 0356 UTC
Precipitation Accumulation
Precipitation
Amount
0.03 inches In the 3 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 04:56 PM EDT / 2011.09.20 2056 UTC
0.19 inches In the 24 hours preceding Sep 20, 2011 - 07:56 AM EDT / 2011.09.20 1156 UTC
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 6 PM (22) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) E 8
5 PM (21) Sep 20 82.9 (28.3) 75.0 (23.9) 29.91 (1012) E 8
4 PM (20) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ENE 8 light rain
3 PM (19) Sep 20 84.0 (28.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) E 12 light rain
2 PM (18) Sep 20 87.1 (30.6) 71.1 (21.7) 29.92 (1013) ESE 8
1 PM (17) Sep 20 89.1 (31.7) 70.0 (21.1) 29.95 (1014) E 16
Noon (16) Sep 20 86.0 (30.0) 71.1 (21.7) 29.97 (1014) E 8
11 AM (15) Sep 20 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.98 (1015) E 9
10 AM (14) Sep 20 82.0 (27.8) 72.0 (22.2) 29.99 (1015) SSW 5
9 AM (13) Sep 20 80.1 (26.7) 73.0 (22.8) 29.97 (1014) SE 3
8 AM (12) Sep 20 78.1 (25.6) 72.0 (22.2) 29.95 (1014) ESE 3
7 AM (11) Sep 20 77.0 (25.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) Calm
6 AM (10) Sep 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.91 (1012) Calm
5 AM (9) Sep 20 75.9 (24.4) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) Calm
4 AM (8) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.9 (1012) Calm
3 AM (7) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.9 (1012) Calm
2 AM (6) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.92 (1013) SSE 6
1 AM (5) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) E 8
Midnight (4) Sep 20 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.95 (1014) ENE 7 light rain
11 PM (3) Sep 19 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.97 (1014) E 3 light rain
10 PM (2) Sep 19 75.0 (23.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.97 (1014) SSW 3 light rain
9 PM (1) Sep 19 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.96 (1014) Variable 5 light rain
8 PM (0) Sep 19 79.0 (26.1) 72.0 (22.2) 29.93 (1013) SSE 5 thunder
Oldest 7 PM (23) Sep 19 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.92 (1013) ESE 8 thunder
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THIS LOW COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THIS LOW COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Atl East of Lesser Antilles
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2011
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...LEAVING INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. NAM AND GFS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MAINTAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES...THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOUT 560 MILES EAST (100
DEGREES) OF SAINT THOMAS HAS RE-EMERGED AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY IN
A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED CONDITIONS YIELDING SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE DRYING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2011
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...LEAVING INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. NAM AND GFS SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MAINTAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES...THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOUT 560 MILES EAST (100
DEGREES) OF SAINT THOMAS HAS RE-EMERGED AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY IN
A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED CONDITIONS YIELDING SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE DRYING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
Folks,we have Tropical Storm Ophelia in the Atlantic. Lets continue to watch the track of this storm and be prepared.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011
THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm
Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 64.0W or about 136.4 miles (219.5 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Sunday, September 25 at 11:00PM EDT).
Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.0N, 64.0W or about 136.4 miles (219.5 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Sunday, September 25 at 11:00PM EDT).
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS
FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72
HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 12.7N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.0N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.2N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.5N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS
FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72
HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 12.7N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.0N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.2N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.5N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
5 AM Track.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.9N, 65.2W or about 109.6 miles (176.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 4 days, 21 hours and 13 minutes from now (Monday, September 26 at 3:18AM EDT).
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.9N, 65.2W or about 109.6 miles (176.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 4 days, 21 hours and 13 minutes from now (Monday, September 26 at 3:18AM EDT).
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
Folks,read this discussion and see how rainy it will get in the next few days,something that PR doesn't need 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TJSJ 00Z
UPPER DATA INDICATED THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WHICH
AFFECTED THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS...HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SLOWLY
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE BUILDING
RIDGE PATTERN TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS ANOTHER TUTT SINKS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
A RAPIDLY MOVING TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE WITH AXIS NOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY/TRAIL THIS
WAVE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHEN IT ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AS THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE CENTER OF OPHELIA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IN MIAMI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DECREASE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO NEAR 1.70 INCHES BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HE APPROACH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH OPHELIA. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL BUT RATHER ISOLATED SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... SOIL REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLANDS AND THEREFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY QUICKLY
LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING...
THEN LATER SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AS
TRAILING ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A VERY WET WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS USUAL THE FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY WILL BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/16Z
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THROUGH ABOUT 21/22Z. TJSJ 21/00Z RAOB SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS AT 15
KTS OR LESS JUST ABOVE SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 78 89 80 / 40 60 50 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TJSJ 00Z
UPPER DATA INDICATED THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WHICH
AFFECTED THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS...HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SLOWLY
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE BUILDING
RIDGE PATTERN TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS ANOTHER TUTT SINKS SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
A RAPIDLY MOVING TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE WITH AXIS NOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY/TRAIL THIS
WAVE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHEN IT ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AS THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE CENTER OF OPHELIA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IN MIAMI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DECREASE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO NEAR 1.70 INCHES BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HE APPROACH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH OPHELIA. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL BUT RATHER ISOLATED SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... SOIL REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ISLANDS AND THEREFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY QUICKLY
LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING...
THEN LATER SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AS
TRAILING ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A VERY WET WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS USUAL THE FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY WILL BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/16Z
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THROUGH ABOUT 21/22Z. TJSJ 21/00Z RAOB SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS AT 15
KTS OR LESS JUST ABOVE SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 78 89 80 / 40 60 50 30
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139517
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
Today is another anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Georges in Puerto Rico. I made a thread at Talking Tropics forum about it for anyone who wants to visit it.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111947&hilit=&p=2196172#p2196172
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111947&hilit=&p=2196172#p2196172
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - C America - Watching Tropical Storm Ophelia
Ophelia, go away!
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 62.8W or about 46.3 miles (74.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 4 days, 3 hours and 22 minutes from now (Sunday, September 25 at 12:48PM EDT).
Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 62.8W or about 46.3 miles (74.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 4 days, 3 hours and 22 minutes from now (Sunday, September 25 at 12:48PM EDT).
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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