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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:54 pm
by Ntxw
Brent wrote:The cold air is much more progressive this run also... warms up fairly quickly, but this is fantasy land.
We like the crazy Canadian better
with it's 31F for a high next Thursday.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:58 pm
by JayDT
Brent wrote:The cold air is much more progressive this run also... warms up fairly quickly, but this is fantasy land.
Ok this i don't like...
Like you said though, it is fantasy land.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:03 am
by Ntxw
Even longer fantasy (more of a complete guess), beyond 300hrs more big highs and arctic outbreak part 2? One thing is for sure though, Western Canada is cold pretty much the entire run. So any pattern that dislodges it has a lot to work with.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:27 am
by Brent
Euro has 3 1/2" of rain at DFW this run this weekend(much much wetter than the GFS which is just under an inch)... much of it falls Saturday. Lingers into Sunday Night. Temperatures in the 40s all weekend. Rest of the run to come.
Near 60 Monday, then near 50 Tue/Wed... around 40 Thursday, and in the 40s Friday. DFW barely goes below freezing both mornings. The second cold front is dry.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:05 am
by ThunderSleetDreams
6z brings that front back in by Wednesday in Fantasy land
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:20 am
by CaptinCrunch
Brent wrote:Euro has 3 1/2" of rain at DFW this run this weekend(much much wetter than the GFS which is just under an inch)... much of it falls Saturday. Lingers into Sunday Night. Temperatures in the 40s all weekend. Rest of the run to come.
Near 60 Monday, then near 50 Tue/Wed... around 40 Thursday, and in the 40s Friday. DFW barely goes below freezing both mornings. The second cold front is dry.
This weekend will be a multi inch rain event for much of NTX with highs in the upper 40's Saturday and Sunday. As for Next week NWS FTW still isn't saying much about anything, and local wx forecast have Friday Dec 9th with a high of 50.
The weather pattern will remain active Thursday through the
weekend as an upper trough deepens in the west. Initially the
developing system will result in a return of low level moisture
and warmer temperatures Thursday/Thursday night followed by
increasing rain chances on the weekend. The precipitation should
begin as light rain showers across the western zones Friday
afternoon with widespread rain Friday night through Saturday as a
thin layer of cool air moves in at the surface and Gulf moisture
is lifted over the top of it. It appears that mid level instability
will be weak and thunderstorms will be very isolated. Rain amounts
should not be enough to result in any major flooding concerns.
The extended models continue to cut off a piece of energy from
the main upper trough and lift it across the state Sunday through
Monday. There is some timing/strength differences between the GFS
and ECMWF so for now we will keep PoPs fairly low (20%-30%). Even
though cold air will already be in place in the low levels, it
does not appear cold enough for any winter precipitation to
accompany the upper low as it lifts across the region. The
stronger dynamics and colder temperatures associated with the
passing system will bring a slightly better chance of thunder
however.
Dry and subsident air will move into North and Central Texas
Monday night and remain in place through Tuesday. However, another
strong low pressure system is progged to develop across the
western CONUS Tuesday night/Wednesday. This approaching system
will bring a quick return of low level moisture Wednesday along
with increasing precipitation chances.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:10 am
by Ralph's Weather
0Z Canadian has the low south of AK weaker and further west than the GFS thus showing a stronger surface high over the Plains with 1050+mb coming across the Canadian border late next week. It shows a hard freeze even with some leftover winds Friday.
For this weekend it has a much strong suraface low over N Mexico resulting in all of E TX with >3" of rain and some spots >8" and the I-35 corridor 1-3" further west still .5-1". It also shows the moisture meeting the cold air over the Panhandle resulting in very heavy wet snow. I am keeping my eye on this as there could be flooding in E TX and road closures along I-40 from heavy snow.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:23 am
by Ralph's Weather
12Z GFS looking pretty interesting through early next week. AK ridging continues to trend stronger and through midday Tuesday still no breaking for the low to move S of AK. Very solid -EPO on this run. SE ridge also a bit more suppressed.
Update: It ruined it all by taking the low from NE NM to MN vs 0Z solution of tracking the low across TX. I don't foresee the low heading straight NE so I will toss this solution for now as the SE ridge does not appear strong enough to shove the low north like that.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:43 am
by gatorcane
12Z GFS coming in warmer than the 06Z, though still cold for Texas:
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:56 am
by gboudx
I haven't been paying much attention to the model enhancements. Do the models handle these arctic airmasses better than they used to? Seems like they couldn't handle the density of the airmasses and were always warm biased.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:02 pm
by Ntxw
gboudx wrote:I haven't been paying much attention to the model enhancements. Do the models handle these arctic airmasses better than they used to? Seems like they couldn't handle the density of the airmasses and were always warm biased.
Its hard to know. Nearly all of the globals have had major updates since the last real outbreak in Nov 2014. They haven't been tested since.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:38 pm
by Tireman4
Ntxw wrote:gboudx wrote:I haven't been paying much attention to the model enhancements. Do the models handle these arctic airmasses better than they used to? Seems like they couldn't handle the density of the airmasses and were always warm biased.
Its hard to know. Nearly all of the globals have had major updates since the last real outbreak in Nov 2014. They haven't been tested since.
So until the real test is in, expect flippity floppities every run?
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:49 pm
by Ntxw
Tireman4 wrote:Ntxw wrote:gboudx wrote:I haven't been paying much attention to the model enhancements. Do the models handle these arctic airmasses better than they used to? Seems like they couldn't handle the density of the airmasses and were always warm biased.
Its hard to know. Nearly all of the globals have had major updates since the last real outbreak in Nov 2014. They haven't been tested since.
So until the real test is in, expect flippity floppities every run?
Generally within 3-5 days is their skill. Euro has some of the best skills around day 4-5. Beyond that it is always best to go for trends and ensemble support.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:16 pm
by Tireman4
00
FXUS64 KHGX 301739
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR through the period. Gusty north winds will die out through the
afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. A dry resident
air mass will maintain mostly clear skies with no mentionable threat
for Thursday morning fog/low clouds. Light morning winds will awake
from the east and slowly veer southeast through Thursday afternoon.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
High pressure over West Texas will build to the east this
afternoon and the tight pressure gradient along the coast will
continue to weaken. Sustained winds are less than 25 mph and the
Wind Advisory previously in effect has been cancelled. It will
remain breezy and winds are expected to subside later this
afternoon as the surface high nudges closer to SE TX. Skies have
generally cleared over all of the area and sunshine is expected
for the rest of the day. Temps are a bit tricky as full sun/heating
will be neutralized by mixing from breezy north winds and cold air
advection. Think the current temp forecast is on track and will
let it ride for now. No other changes planned at this time. 43
&&
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:17 pm
by orangeblood
Crazy Canadian is back on the Winter Storm train....brings the Arctic Front quicker with a system running along it, bringing a transition from rain to ice/sleet on the backside.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:47 pm
by Tireman4
orangeblood wrote:Crazy Canadian is back on the Winter Storm train....brings the Arctic Front quicker with a system running along it, bringing a transition from rain to ice/sleet on the backside.
The PWC has to be seeing this...
Get the Grey Goose ready folks...
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:56 pm
by Ralph's Weather
orangeblood wrote:Crazy Canadian is back on the Winter Storm train....brings the Arctic Front quicker with a system running along it, bringing a transition from rain to ice/sleet on the backside.
That is more like what I am expecting out of this. The GFS has all of the energy in the northern lobe while the Canadian has a Gulf Coast low and a Midwest low with this. NTWX can correct me here, but it seems that often there is a southern component to these types of systems. Now if we could get all of the energy into the Gulf low then we are really talking about a major winter storm for the South. Surface details like this will fluctuate tons as the time nears, hopefully the general idea of how the lows will track will be nailed down by early next week.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:05 pm
by weatherdude1108
Tireman4 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Crazy Canadian is back on the Winter Storm train....brings the Arctic Front quicker with a system running along it, bringing a transition from rain to ice/sleet on the backside.
The PWC has to be seeing this...
Get the Grey Goose ready folks...
"Inclement Weather Day" (Ice Day) at work next Friday, perhaps?? Crazy Canadian!
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:18 pm
by TheProfessor
I'm hoping that both branches phase then we could be talking about a great storm for a lot of the plain states. Although even this run of the Canadian would be a better December than it was for Ohio last year.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:37 pm
by Brent
The euro is very cold 25 degrees at DFW for a low and highs in the mid 30s next Thursday and it doesn't warm up much as 240 hours still near a freeze that morning(Saturday)