STORM2K

I'm dreaming of a chilly Christmas lol I think for the next 2 nights we will be near 40 around cocoa beach area which is nice for December.

Good morning! The first freeze of the season has been measured at 6:11 a.m.. It is at 32.3 degrees currently at my home . This first freeze is about 3 weeks past our normal first freeze average, which is generally around the third week of November.

We will finally see the sun today after 3 days of rain. But, despite full sunshine, a rather cold airmass has settled in and we will barely make 50 degrees for max temp late today. Breezy west to northwest wind, combined with the very low sun angle this time of year, will really keep the chill in the air for sure.

We will likely see another freeze itomorrow morning here and across entire North Florida, with clear skies, light wind signaling excellent radiatonal cooling and frost in most locales.

Probably will see some upper 30s in areas of Central Florida tomorrow morning as well.

We actually hit the 30s this morning but barely. Lol 39 degrees here this morning in Rockledge.

The stratocumulus across the Gulf and Atlantic waters is widespread this morning as the cold airmass moves over the relatively warmer waters. Sea surface temps around Florida should take a huge hit with this front unlike previous Decembers of recent past. The stage could be set for a real freeze threat further down the peninsula down the road this winter if the NAO and other things line up with these colder SSTs.

great point about the sea temps. this cold snap kills off the protection of above normal water temps and that will be especially true on the gulf side where the shallow waters respond quickly. It will also set the stage for dense sea fog if (more likely when) warm muggy air surges back. In the meantime...it's cold. it finally made it and we have some legit chill in the air.

The GFS has been trending slightly colder for the Friday night cold event for Florida each run since the 18Z yesterday. Looks what it has on the latest run with 30s into Central Florida again:

gatorcane wrote:The GFS has been trending slightly colder for the Friday night cold event for Florida each run since the 18Z yesterday. Looks what it has on the latest run with 30s into Central Florida again:

I'm confused? While I'm looking in the Tidbits "Model Page" and attempting to pull up the same 144hr. GFS 2 Meter Temps map (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_25.png), how come i'm seeing different data (note the 40's F values for Orlando verses the map that you are showing)?? I totally agree that forecast temps once again seem oddly warm for the next couple of fronts forecast to push through Florida, so its not surprising that trends are beginning to show colder. I"m just confused how we're seemingly looking at the same chart but showing different data? Do you have a "non Tropical Tidbits" link for these charts?

St Pete Clearwater airport down to 46F already (forecasted low of 44F) and Orlando Intl down to 48F (forecasted low of 39F) as of 10pmEST. Sarasota at 43F. St Pete Clearwater with a 6F temp drop in just the last hour.

Upper 30s to low 40s this morning in Orlando, lots of frost in the more rural areas.

We didn't get into the 40s in Miami, but it sure felt cold when that wind was blowing yesterday. I attempted to sit outside with a drink late yesterday afternoon ...when the temperature was in the low 60s, and even at that temp with a jacket, the wind made it pretty much unbearable.

I used a good amount of Irma produced firewood last night and it looks like more opportunities will exist the next few days before things moderate.

Patrick99 wrote:We didn't get into the 40s in Miami, but it sure felt cold when that wind was blowing yesterday. I attempted to sit outside with a drink late yesterday afternoon ...when the temperature was in the low 60s, and even at that temp with a jacket, the wind made it pretty much unbearable.

Getting into the forties in urban South Florida is much harder to do these days than, say, fifty or more years ago. In 1967, much of Broward and Palm Beach counties still contained open and/or forested land, at least in pockets, which all but vanished in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Until the mid-1950s, the Everglades extended considerably farther east than it currently does. At the time, Loxahatchee, Royal Palm Beach, Wellington, Parkland, Coral Springs, Tamarac, Weston, the Miami suburbs, Homestead, and other areas had yet to be developed. There was less of an urban heat island to hamper radiational cooling, especially in wooded and marshy areas. Much of South Florida, if not covered in marshland or pine forest, consisted of pasture and grazing land, citrus groves, and vegetable farmland. Now the situation is entirely different, with concrete, steel, and lawn everywhere. It is no coincidence that the rate, frequency, and intensity of freezes declined as development engulfed South Florida and the global climate warmed. The loss of family-owned farmland to citrus cancer, citrus greening, and factory farming only accentuated the trend.

My car thermometer showed 48F in East Boca Raton this morning and I was driving not far from the coast too, quite impressive to say the least, haven't seen 40s in a long time here.

Looks like we've got another chilly one coming up Wednesday-Thursday, followed by an extended period of mild warmup. Doesn't exactly look like a chilly Christmas........Weather Channel is showing partly cloudy, high of 81, low of 72 for the 25th.

The GFS is showing a few cold fronts moving thru South Florida but how strong hard to tell.

looks like near to slightly above normal temps are back on the docket starting next week. should be a nice stretch. low 40's last night felt much colder as it always does down here.

Puts into perspective how mild the last few winters have been across South Florida!

 https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/940555070101446658

Which is why we have such an effortless bar to jump this year. Even a slightly above normal winter will be vastly different from the last 2.

Enjoy the next few days of cooler weather then it’s back to the abnormally warm weather to finish out the year at least!

gatorcane wrote:The GFS has been trending slightly colder for the Friday night cold event for Florida each run since the 18Z yesterday. Looks what it has on the latest run with 30s into Central Florida again:

My point of how bad models have been past their 4-5 day range most times during the past few weeks.