STORM2K

Interesting NDG, I could not have planned to have a vacation from work any better. But, then again, who could have seen this coming way back in September when I planned time off LOL.. This could not have worked out any better than this for me.. I am planning to take a very quick ride up U.S. Highway 1 tomorrow up to Waycross, GA, which is only 45 minute to just under 1hour drive from my house. But, Savannah may be a good spot NDG as well to see a good amount of snow tomorrow.. May be the best spot. NAM I realize is probably being too aggressive with the snowfall projection, but it had an insane16 inch snowfall accumulation in the Low Country of South Carolina from about Savannah to Charleston on its model run yesterday. I will see how tomorrow goes. May consider riding to Hinesville, GA , which is about 35 miles southwest of Savannah.

Realistically, I am anticipating in an area on a line along and north from about Lake City, FL northeast to Waycross to Savannah of possible 1- 3 inch accumulations.

For the current time, Jax metro will finally see a changover to just light snow or flurries by 18Z tomorrow afternoon,based on the 6Z GFS run this morning, mainly along the I-95 corridor and points west and north along it.

Basically, my house is sitting right about on the imaginary line (Northwest Duval County near airport) in which there will be the battle zone of freezing rain, sleet probably tomorrow before the thermal profiles become sufficient to change the precip to all snow before it all moves out of the Jax area by tomorrow night.

This cold, arctic airmass over the region is very impressive folks. Daytime temps at my home weather station stayed in the mid-upper 30s the entire day, with drizzle for much of the day. No flurries were observed here by yours truly, and I personally think the reports of flurries seen were people confusing the drizzle as flurries for the most part. Overcast, brisk and very cold conditions are locked in place today, and right on into this weekend.

Measured the second freeze of this season this morning, 31.2 degrees, which is the current temperature. Wind chill temps in the low-mid 20s

With cloud cover still hovering over the area and strong cold air advection continuing today, we will likely stay in the 30s all day again today.

Even in Savannah I am kind of nervous of seeing more sleet than snow, this morning's still aggressive NAM with the precipitation is showing a very warm nose near h925 most of the day tomorrow until heights start falling later in the day where it then goes away for the possibility of a quick change over to all snow before the precip exits the area. One thing for sure is that roads north of the Jax area will be very slippery because of sleet and or freezing rain.
So I have to pick a hotel with restaurants within walking distance in case they close all the roads in Savannah.

NDG, my thought process of going to Waycross initially, other than being a bit closer to my house, is that looking at the GFS thermal profiles for tomorrow morning, the precipitation field looks to get far enough inland across areas like Lake City, FL, northeast up across Southeast Georgia to Waycross to Jesup, GA. The 540 partial thickness line (rain/snow line) is shown to be through those areas as the precip moves in between 6Z tomorrow morning up through the afternoon.

That mixed precipitation battle zone area is going to be a major concern potentially on the roads just north and west of Jacksonville, especially I-95 and U.S. Highway 1

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: NDG, my thought process of going to Waycross initially, other than being a bit closer to my house, is that looking at the GFS thermal profiles for tomorrow morning, the precipitation field looks to get far enough inland across areas like Lake City, FL, northeast up across Southeast Georgia to Waycross to Jesup, GA. The 540 partial thickness line (rain/snow line) is shown to be through those areas as the precip moves in between 6Z tomorrow morning up through the afternoon.

That mixed precipitation battle zone area is going to be a major concern potentially on the roads just north and west of Jacksonville, especially I-95 and U.S. Highway 1

I always go by the skew-t forecast by the models, Waycross maybe the better spot, away from the h925 warm tongue near the immediate coast.

Edit: 12z GFS paints a little better scenario for Savannah not as much of a warm tongue at h925 as the NAM shows.

NDG wrote:

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: NDG, my thought process of going to Waycross initially, other than being a bit closer to my house, is that looking at the GFS thermal profiles for tomorrow morning, the precipitation field looks to get far enough inland across areas like Lake City, FL, northeast up across Southeast Georgia to Waycross to Jesup, GA. The 540 partial thickness line (rain/snow line) is shown to be through those areas as the precip moves in between 6Z tomorrow morning up through the afternoon.

That mixed precipitation battle zone area is going to be a major concern potentially on the roads just north and west of Jacksonville, especially I-95 and U.S. Highway 1

I always go by the skew-t forecast by the models, Waycross maybe the better spot, away from the h925 warm tongue near the immediate coast.

Edit: 12z GFS paints a little better scenario for Savannah not as much of a warm tongue at h925 as the NAM shows.

Yes, I saw that too NDG. GFS moves the colder down the I-95 corridor in behind the intensifying Low Pressure off the coast to changeover the precip from about 15Z - 21Z tomorrow.

Tomorrow is really shaping up to be potentially a fascinating day for us weather geeks in the Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia area for sure!

EDIT.

The new 12Z GFS run shows the Low Pressure area closer to the coast, only 150-200 miles east off the Northeast Florida coast by tomorrow morning. That is a very significant change from even 6Z earlier today. For those wanting accumulating wintry precip on the northwestern edge of the storm system, this is a good sign.

Here in Man-O-War Cay, Abaco, Bahamas it is currently quite blustery with winds sustained at 26mph and of course to make things more miserable it is raining off and on and cool. This should be the theme through tomorrow here.

Then tomorrow night it will get chilly for Bahama standards with lows in the upper 50’s for two nights and highs struggling to get into the upper 60’s for a day or two. I leave Thursday morning.

Sorry to get off topic.

Yeah northjaxpro, big change with the GFS with the storm much further west. Your instincts on this winter storm possibility for NE Florida and SE US have been right on the entire time...

By the way, the NAM is insisting on a freeze for much of the peninsula for Thu. night...looks like there could be some widespread frost too...

Thanks Gatorcane for the kind words.I am just a weather nerd, both doing it for a living and at heart!!

Yeah, my gut instincts lately have been pretty much spot on for over the past couple of weeks, with regards to the arctic cold spell we are in the midst of now, siding with the GFS, which ended up being correct, at least definitely in my area of the peninsula, despite the +NAO, and now seeing this potential of this winter storm for tomorrow.

I have learned in my years of experience that sometimes you have to roll the dice and see how it goes. You will hit gold every once and awhile, I do not recommend doing this often this way, but every now and then..

Keep in mind Gatorcane that with that rapid cyclogenesis occurring with the Southeast U.S. coastal winter storm , and then moving northeast off the rest of the Atlantic seaboard the rest of this week, those temperature values indeed may pan out to a particular extent in what the NAM is showing. More of that deep polar air will dive down behind that amplified polar jet, and the upper trough will really deepen behind that storm system.

Plus, we will likely have a new snowpack across the immediate Southeast U.S. Atlantic coastal bend region to help refrigerate or at least maintain this airmass. I do not see much of any moderation of this airmass until Sunday, when the return flow will finally start across the peninsula as that huge Arctic High axis finally starts to move east off the U.S. Eastern seaboard by the end of this upcomimg weekend.

I feel much better now going to Savannah, both the latest GFS and Euro are being more generous to that area for snow, even the CMC is a little more generous.

Thanks NDG for posting the snowfall forecast maps.

Yes, Savannah is looking good for accumulatons NDG, as well as Waycross, Alma, Hinesville and Jesup in Southeast Georgia.

I will drive to either Waycross, or Jesup tomorrow morning as it stands right now.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Thanks NDG for posting the snowfall forecast maps.

Yes, Savannah is looking good for accumulatons NDG, as well as Waycross, Alma, Hinesville and Jesup in Southeast Georgia.

I will drive to either Waycross, or Jesup tomorrow morning as it stands right now.

Make sure to leave early enough before the frozen precip causes any road problems, I probably would had picked Waycross if I lived in the Jax area for just quick drive, we have never been in Savannah so is good excuse for us to go there

Oh yeah, most definitely NDG. I will get up around 5 a.m. tomorrow morning and drive up U.S. Hwy 1 to Waycross if I go there. My alternative is to drive to Hinesville, going up I-95 . I may go to Richmond Hill, which is just off I-95 in the southern suburbs of Savannah. I will leave early for sure. Thanks NDG.

EDIT: I am sticking with my initial instinct to just make the quick 45 minute drive to Waycross. I am on a hot streak with my insticncts after l all Waycross will be a good spot to see accumulating snow tomorrow.

The NWS WFO in Tallahassee has now issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Tallahassee forecast area from 1 AM to noon EST Wednesday, which includes the Big Bend region of North Florida and portions of South Georgia in their forecast area, cities including Thomasville, Valdosta and Tifton GA.

It is so weird seeing the words "Winter Storm Warning" any where near this region. This is why I love the weather so much..... Seriously, the last and only time to my recollection seeing this warning in our region was December 1989, during that historic Southeast U.S coastal winter storm that year just a couple of days before Christmas.

Fantastic job NorthJax on bring on top of this early!

Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.

Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf in SAV (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.

Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.

Yes Larry, you stand to get a lot of potential snowfall in and around the Statesboro area tomorrow.

What is amazing is that I was hesistent of going totally full bore of this potential Larry, even though I saw it coming. It is so difficult to get storm systems like this to come together perfectly in this corner of the world during the winter months. I just was not completely confident all the essential elements and the timing would all set up. Well, the set-up for this storm has been about as ideal as you can get as it is turning out on the eve of this event for tomorrow. All the ingredients have come together beautifully for this storm system. This is going to be an intense storm. Could definitely be a historic one for this region indeed Larry when it is all said and done!

^I'm actually in SAV. You're mixing me up with another poster, who is in Statesboro.

It is fully understandable to not go full bore into something so incredibly rare. By the way, further kudos to the European ensemble (EPS), which had snow very close to here in runs over a week ago!

We are getting accumulations of icy damp swamp air here in the scrub forest. Civilization itself rests on the edge of a knife. The despair and confusion in the faces of southernmost Georgia-Florida is real.