Caribbean - Central America Weather

[HUC]

Hello all,come back from France to the birte of our granddaughter" Léontine...
Just in time for "Ernesto"!!!
Stay on alert friends in Barbados,ST Lucia,Martinica: heavy rains have dangerous effects. Following tcarefully rte sutyation.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[greenkat]

TWC (The Weather Channel) forecast now takes it just south of Barbados and through Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Stay safe abajan!

[abajan]

TWC (The Weather Channel) forecast now takes it just south of Barbados and through Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Stay safe abajan!

Thanks. It's been drizzling for the last 15 minutes or so but wind speeds are normal.

[caribsue]

TWC (The Weather Channel) forecast now takes it just south of Barbados and through Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Stay safe abajan!

Thanks. It's been drizzling for the last 15 minutes or so but wind speeds are normal.

Stay safe Abajan.... all good here in Rendezvous for now... preps made. Reports coming in ....Raining in St. Philip currently.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TOWARDS BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[CrazyC83]

Stay safe everyone in the region!

[abajan]

It's raining more heavily now.

[abajan]

Well, I hit the sack sometime after midnight and by that time it had stopped raining. I awoke about 15 minutes ago to little more than pleasant breezes and I doubt it rained very much while I was asleep. So far, so good! I won't be letting my guard down just yet though because the water vapor loop appears to show a feeder band developing to our SE. Plus, we're still under a TS warning.

Hopefully, things don't turn out too badly for our friends in the other islands northwest of Barbados.

UPDATE: I just saw that Ernesto is a bit weaker and the TS warning has been discontinued for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Nice!

[Gustywind]

Hi everbody in the islands. Be safe and dry all from the Windwards. Guadeloupe since yesterday night is now under an Orange Alert Cyclone ( warnings) as Martinica. Weather is cloudy in Guadeloupe without any significant showers here. Wind is calm.

WEATHER. Vigilance orange for the storm Ernesto

franceantilles.fr 03.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180730.php

Located 700 km southeast of Guadeloupe (at 5 p.m.), the tropical storm Ernesto will cross the Caribbean arc early in the morning of tomorrow to the South of St. Lucia. So far, our archipelago should, over the next 36 hours, be affected by this hurricane phenomenon and know a significant deterioration in weather conditions.

Small but locally thundery rain will begin end of the night and intensify in tomorrow with a peak in early afternoon. Accumulations expected on 12 hours will reach 100 to 120 mm and locally more on Guadeloupe terrain.
Well established in night northeast wind will strengthen to average values of 45 to 55 km/h with gusts of 65-75 km/h while moving to the South-East sector in tomorrow. The sea will be also high on the façade Atlantic with average dips from 3 m to 3.50 m. the improvement will likely intervene Saturday evening
It is the first cyclonic system of the season, it is not a very intense phenomenon. The impact is essentially at the level of the reactions of the course of water and wind damage. It is not contemplated the passage to a higher level of vigilance, prudence and vigilance remain despite all development and should remain attentive to the evolution of the situation.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST FRI AUG 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT 5 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST AND WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AT NEAR 24 MPH. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
BRINGING OUTER BANDS OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD ALLUDED TO...
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS A SAFE DISTANCE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE COMBINATION OF THE FORECASTED
STRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING INCREASING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ON THE NORTH AND
EAST SIDES OF THE SYSTEM...WILL BE PULLED UP ACROSS THE FA...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS LOCALLY BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE EAST AND THEN SPREADING
WEST NORTHWEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ST CROIX...VIEQUES...THE SOUTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH ALL
AREAS RECEIVING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS.

GIVEN WIND GUIDANCE VALUES (WHICH WE REMAIN AT LEAST 5 KNOTS
BELOW IN THE GRIDS)...STILL APPEARS THAT A FEW AREAS COULD NEED A
WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL...DESPITE THE RATHER QUICK AND MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION OF
ERNESTO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP ACROSS THE FA AND LONG TERM
SATELLITE LOOPS AND TPW PRODUCT...SHOW THE OVERALL MOISTURE
ENVELOPE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING/GROWING WEST NORTHWEST IN SUCH A
MANNER...THAT A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WE BELIEVE THAT EARLIER
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF A FEW INCHES OVER PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTH
PUERTO RICO SHOULD VERIFY...WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING 5 INCHES AND GENERALLY LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THRU TONIGHT...VEERING FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. SUSTAIN WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS TS ERNESTO
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FA. OUTER BANDS OF TS ERNESTO MAY AFFECT THE
ISLANDS BTWN 04/06Z AND AT LEAST 05/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT INCREASING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...SPREADING
WEST NORTHWEST FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 21 TO 27
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 10
FEET SHOULD BE REALIZED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WIND AND LOWER SEAS TO THE NORTH. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS TODAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BEGINNING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND ALSO EXPANDING WEST
NORTHWEST. FOR FORECAST MARINE CONDITIONS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR
LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 86 78 / 50 80 80 60
STT 81 80 84 80 / 50 50 50 30

[angelwing]

Everyone stay safe, will be thinking of you!

[abajan]

It's currently overcast with light rain and and fresh south easterly breezes. We've been having some squally weather over the last hour or so. Nothing too serious though. All in all, it's been a pretty pleasant morning, considering all the dryness and heat we've been experiencing over the last month. It's a nice change!

[chrisjslucia]

Well, Ernesto brought some stronger winds and occasional gusts but very little rain to the north of St Lucia - we have certainly had much greater impact from passing waves. Reports from elsewhere in the country are comparable, so unless the South / South East report more of an impact, Ernesto has had little impact. Whether the tail offers more others may be able to say. Hopefully, the rest of the Caribbean and CONUS will also be spared any serious impact.

[Gustywind]

WEATHER

Martinique always in vigilance Orange

franceantilles.fr 03.08.2012


http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168465.php



The storm Ernesto passes in Caribbean. In the wake of the wet bands and thunderstorms and strong winds are Martinique and especially the South of the island. The first wet passages affect our island and will continue throughout the day. The orange Hurricane alert is maintained.
For the time being, improving weather conditions is expected in second part of Friday to Saturday night.
He was relieved at 8 am no difficulty on the island. The roads subject to special supervision.
Any significant problems should be reported to the police and gendarmerie services or town halls.
If the weather disruption now caused no damage, caution remains to be observed.

[greenkat]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

[greenkat]

Ernesto is forecast to pass thru the Caribbean Sea and gradually strenghten into a hurricane. If I were to give each location a warning color from Green to Red, I think I would give Lesser Antilles a green, Hispaniola (Did I spell that right?) a green, Honduras a green, Belize a yellow, Jamaica a red, Cuba an orange, and Yucatan a red. Stay safe everyone!

[abajan]

Well, Ernesto brought some stronger winds and occasional gusts but very little rain to the north of St Lucia - we have certainly had much greater impact from passing waves. Reports from elsewhere in the country are comparable, so unless the South / South East report more of an impact, Ernesto has had little impact. Whether the tail offers more others may be able to say. Hopefully, the rest of the Caribbean and CONUS will also be spared any serious impact.

Indeed the tail does have a punch, although not of the severity of Tomas. Only within the last 15 minutes have I experienced the strongest gusts (well in excess of the tropical storm threshold) here in the south of Barbados. Knowing that you're over 100 miles WNW of my location, you'd better not relax just yet!

[greenkat]

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THE
APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

[chrisjslucia]

Well, Ernesto brought some stronger winds and occasional gusts but very little rain to the north of St Lucia - we have certainly had much greater impact from passing waves. Reports from elsewhere in the country are comparable, so unless the South / South East report more of an impact, Ernesto has had little impact. Whether the tail offers more others may be able to say. Hopefully, the rest of the Caribbean and CONUS will also be spared any serious impact.

Indeed the tail does have a punch, although not of the severity of Tomas. Only within the last 15 minutes have I experienced the strongest gusts (well in excess of the tropical storm threshold) here in the south of Barbados. Knowing that you're over 100 miles WNW of my location, you'd better not relax just yet!

Hi Abajan, yes you are too right! Wish I knew where this storm was in reality as the tail seems to have more sting than the centre. When I see the storm is well to our west I keep wondering when this wind will die down. Still having strong gusts of wind here and occasional strong showers and Bajan Radar is showing much more to come.

Are you all going to manage to celebrate cropover this weekend?