STORM2K

MetroMike wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:I think it’s safe to say winter is over. At least for the peninsula that is. Winter cancel!

With dew point values jumping into the upper 60’s to near 70 over the past few days and the strong Easterly to Southeasterly flow thanks to a stubbornly strong SW Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High it feels like mid-late April at least!

To be honest I’m enjoying this weather for once. Likely due to the fact that it’s mid-February and not the middle of summer meaning the sun angle is still premature in the sky. Our 6-8 week blast of winter in December and January was enjoyed and impressive nonetheless.

I would not rule out a blast of cold air in March Joe Bastardi has been hinting about a build-up of arctic air after this warm period.
I don't want to see it but we are not out of the woods as far as way below normal temps yet.

I agree with you Metro Mike. Well, I certainly am not ready yet to say winter is over here in North Florida for sure. I have been around too long and seen too many cold spells to come in late February or into the first half of March to turn my back completely on Old Man Winter in my neck of the woods. We have had freezes to come as late as early April across North Florida. Still a bit too soon for this area of the peninsula for Winter Cancel posts.

It looks good for the next 10 days or so of nice Spring-like weather over the peninsula with the Bermuda /Western Atlantic Ridge holding firm for now.

But, I have another of these gut feelings that we may see a pattern change by the beginning of March. Just a hunch.. Let me put it like this: I will not be tempted to start planting the spring garden here at home just yet....

MetroMike wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:I think it’s safe to say winter is over. At least for the peninsula that is. Winter cancel!

With dew point values jumping into the upper 60’s to near 70 over the past few days and the strong Easterly to Southeasterly flow thanks to a stubbornly strong SW Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High it feels like mid-late April at least!

To be honest I’m enjoying this weather for once. Likely due to the fact that it’s mid-February and not the middle of summer meaning the sun angle is still premature in the sky. Our 6-8 week blast of winter in December and January was enjoyed and impressive nonetheless.

I would not rule out a blast of cold air in March Joe Bastardi has been hinting about a build-up of arctic air after this warm period.
I don't want to see it but we are not out of the woods as far as way below normal temps yet.

I would actually like to see this. It's getting too warm, too early. I'm not going to expect it, though. If you expect cold air in Miami outside of December and January, 9 times out of 10, you're in for a big disappointment.

The above normal anoms are nearly maxed out in the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. the remainder of Feb looks to be torch land.

75 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 F as I type past 9 PM here in Orlando, the positive NAO is torching us as it usually does in this stage. One thing for sure is that this very warm pattern is waking up the tropical plants that got severely damaged by the freeze 3 weeks ago in my area.
If the NAO continues to be mostly positive along with a near neutral PNA I doubt we will see a freeze here in central FL for the remainder of the winter, which by the way Meteorological speaking Spring begins in less than 3 weeks.

72 degree low this morning was good enough for an all time record warm min for Feb...extraordinary by any stretch, especially mid month. Now the 8-14 day outlook is maxed out on above normal anoms over a huge area from the mid atlantic all the way south. I have little doubt we are in the midst of an exceptional stretch of heat for this time of year and plenty more records will be falling in the next couple of weeks and likely beyond.

Our saving grace on the southeast coast has been the persistent tradewind-style ocean breeze we've been getting. Otherwise, I'm sure the temperature would shoot up into the mid 80s. We'd need to shift over to SW-W flow for that to happen.......but I'm guessing that we might hit some record high morning lows in some areas.

It is looking very probable examining the long range guidance out 10-14 days that we will get through the month of February without seeing any freezes here across Northern Florida. The positive NAO really has reasserted its influence across Florida and the immediate SE Atlantic region.

The upper ridge looks parked right over our region as it looks like this pattern will stay in place heading into the beginning of March. Record warmth likely will occur on some days coming up as we wrap up February. I still keep thinking that this pattern will eventually relent some as we move into March and at least a return to normal temps will come for at least the northern peninsula by the middle of March.

It has been a strange meteorological winter this season. It has been interesting that no freezes were recorded in November or in December, the start of meteorological winter, here at my locale. However, 12 total freezes were measured here, all in January to date. But, none in February and that will likely hold with this pattern locked in place.

Well, it had been the strong positive PNA , -AO which gave us the cold January. Now, the PNA has gone into a neutral or even a slightly negative phase, hence our blow torch weather now ongoing.

Once again, the peninsula continues the extremely lucky period of not having the -NAO during the meteorological winter months. Now that the hurricane drought streak ended with Hermine in 2016, the state escaping -NAO in winter is now the most fascinating streak we have going now. It is now at 8 years since it last occurred over the region. Amazing..

I keep seeing flip flops on NAO/AO most of the winter. This time both neg. Probably on next ensemble runs it will be pos. again. The ensembles can't get a grip on the teleconnections this winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

I've never seen such vast swaths of the country covered by maxed out above (most of the east) and maxed out below (the northwest) normal anomalies as today's 6-10 day outlook depicts. with above normal precip in the middle we should see quite a battle in the transition zone. For those of us in Florida it means a continuation of remarkable early season warmth. if the cold air out west eventually makes it our way it will be too late for a Winter blast as the clock has run out but hopefully we can score a Spring cooldown. in the meantime....it was 86 today in Tampa and I suspect next week will feature some near 90 highs in interior regions..

Wow! That’s quite a large chunk of the U.S. with above average temperatures next week.

Pretty much a classic Feb La Nina. Maybe a flip end of month.

I'm going to side with the long range GFS on this discussion of one last shot of chill across Florida's bow. Appears that there might just finally be a sharp southerly thrust of the 500mb flow toward the N. Gulf region right around the first week of March. Some severe outbreaks perhaps comin' in like a lion? I'd suspect North/Northeast Fla. and S. Georgia might just get some, while a decent squall line might just precede one more punch of cool air into the state. Wouldn't surprise me to see my area here in the Orlando area have one more shot at 40's for a couple nights and perhaps low 60's for a couple days high temps. Even still, we'll have to all endure a week or two of warm before that might transpire.

I agree with you Chaser. I am already on record from earlier posts a few days ago of stating that we will see a shift in the pattern in the first 1/2 of March.

Orlando is on track in having the warmest February ever if no significant cool down occurs during the remainder of the month

It looks like the NAO is forecast to go negative around the 1st of March. PNA is forecast to be still negative around that time, though, so......I dunno. As for the rest of February, though, it seems increasingly safe to say that South Florida won't be getting a cooldown of any kind until the beginning of March at the very earliest.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I am already on record from earlier posts a few days ago of stating that we will see a shift in the pattern in the first 1/2 of March.

Patrick99 wrote:It looks like the NAO is forecast to go negative around the 1st of March. PNA is forecast to be still negative around that time, though, so......I dunno. As for the rest of February, though, it seems increasingly safe to say that South Florida won't be getting a cooldown of any kind until the beginning of March at the very earliest.

Analog years w ith -NAO with a -PNA during February/March Period has kept FL warm, per Michael Ventrice's tweet.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/964553575807504384

Winter is cancelled and so is rain.

This weather is absolute perfection...just stunning day after day. Pollen is a mess but that goes with the territory.

The February thaw has been fantastic. The positive NAO and negative PNA have combined to give us a record warm February for areas of the peninsula. No freezes measured at all this month over North Florida, and the pattern will remain this way into the first week of March in all likelihood.

HOWEVER, Remember folks when I said on this thread a couple of weeks ago about my hunch not to declare winter cancel in posts, while it was certainly very tempting to do so for many others given this long thaw?

Well, long range guidance is now beginning to pick up on the noted indications of the NAO, at long last, finally going negative as we begin March.

Guidance is showing signs that a massive and potent surge of polar air will drop south down into the Eastern CONUS, courtesy of rising 500 mb heights over Greenland(ridging) , as we approach the second week of March.

Still long range. and changes will occur as time progresses. However, the point I am making is that there is still a real possibility , here across North Florida, we may have a rather unpleasant return of Old Man Winter by the time we get to the middle of March.

At the very least, a pattern change to cooler, to potentially much cooler than normal for the peninsula could be in the cards by mid-March....